“This tracking polling will NOT reflect any convention bounce (or its absence). These polling firms conclude their interviews by mid-evening, before Michelle Obama’s speech and before network coverage of the convention began. So if there is a response to the events of Monday night, it will show up in the field on Tuesday, which means that it will be reflected in polls released on Wednesday. Moreover, our research has concluded that there typically is not any bounce until the third day of the convention. As such, this polling tells us nothing at all about the convention so far.

“It might tell us something about Joe Biden. I tend to agree with the conventional wisdom that there was liable to be a bit of a near-term backlash whenever Obama announced his VP choice, provided that the VP was not Hillary Clinton. The key phrase in there, however, is “near-term”. If Hillary is able to rally her supporters to the Obama-Biden ticket tonight, there could still be a latent/lagged VP bounce for Obama that gets rolled up into his convention bounce.”

What will prove the media is in the bag for McCain is when they completely ignore a much larger gathering at Ron Paul’s shadow convention in Minneapolis.

But I’m still not worried. Instant polling has removed the trends that everyone keeps insisting spell doom for Obama. The polls will be close throughout and the Dems GOTV will blow the GOP out of the water.