This is about what I expected as the final convention bounce, in response to the Bill Clinton and Obama speeches. Somewhere in the neighborhood of a rise up to a 7-10 pt gap. Good speeches.

I expect the response to Palin is simply not reflected in these numbers, because it hasn’t happened yet and hasn’t been polled upon yet. Many or even most folks, who may well have watched Obama’s prime time thursday night speech and then taken off by lunchtime friday, still don’t know who the veep nom is, or have heard no more than a name.

I’d be very surprised if the numbers next Monday have not at least halfed this 8 point gap.

Now if everyone is as deathly afraid of Palin as JG suggests, is it fair to assume that Obama will either maintain or increase that lead post Rep convention, after Palin has had a chance to speak to America? Conversely, if we get back to the same 1 point lead after the Rep convention, is it fair to say that Americans are taking a wait and see attitude with Palin?

Frankly, I am more worried about the effect tMcCain’s speech than Palin’s. He is such a terrible speaker.

How little or how much vetting McCain did, is relevant only in the context of whether he did the GOP a disservice by selecting her. The vetting for the actual role will take place between now and Nov 4 by the voters. Exactly like how Obama was vetted in the press and and campaign, resulting in Democratic voters willing to overlook his complete lack of experience for the POTUS.

It is pretty presumptuous of anyone to assume they know the voters mind about Palin before that process has even started. All I have seen so far are those that have already made up their mind for Obama projecting their own views on the electorate at large. Does anyone thing that if McCain could document spending 1,000,000,000 man-hours vetting it would change either JG’s or Bubbles opinion?

The voters vetting process starts with her speech at the convention. She could screw up between now and election, or she could inspire confidence in the American people over the next two months.

Perhaps as an independent you may want to consider – oh – I dunno – keeping an open mind and seeing how she does for a few weeks?

As I have been saying for months, the first real read on polls will happen after both conventions are done. This polls today are only half a story. – mw

The way I look at it, the Palin choice has hurt McCain’s chances of getting my vote. Now I feel like he’s just a desperate politician who is trying to garner the PUMA demographic and that’s really his only reason for choosing her. And after all the stuff that comes out, it makes it look like he didn’t even check her background. McCain’s not appearing to be a very good decision-maker to me right now.