Unpleasant Surprise For Obama From New ABC Poll
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Biden, McCain, Palin, Polls
I’m sure they’re not paying much attention to the national polls, but still…
White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama’s favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that’s one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences.The other, also to McCain’s advantage, is in the battleground Midwest, where he’s moved from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge.
The poll was done over the weekend, and those polls are historically not all that reliable, but still…
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September 8th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
Seldom Justin have you induced me to a full blown belly laughs, but that is absolutely beautiful man. Keep up the good work and I mean that with all sincerity.
September 8th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
New state polls show that in the electoral college Obama is doing great in spite of the McCain bounce, ahead in colorado and Michigan, and Pennsylvania and Washington. Down by only two in virginia, well within the MOE and tied up in florida.
That means that Obama is still over the 270 EV’s needed to win, thanks to colorado, New Mexico and Iowa, plus the Kerry states, and may even be able to grab up Florida and virginia if his ground game play off.
McCain is done, finished, stick a fork in him, his best week of polling and he still can’t overtake Obama in the battlegrounds
September 8th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
Oh, I’m sure you get a kick out of me daily. This post shouldn’t be any exception.
This could be true, but what if Obama wins all the Kerry states, as well as Nevada, New Mexico and Iowa? Know what happens then? A tie!
Don’t be cocky Avinash. It’s not over yet.
September 8th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
So all of those idealist pundits and campaign reps that were saying that it is demeaning to women to suggest that some might switch to McCain because of the Palin pick were… wrong?
Ideally, gender wouldn’t matter to voters. Ideally, race wouldn’t matter to voters. Ideally, religion wouldn’t matter to voters. But we don’t live in an ideal world. It’s now clear that Palin’s gender is benefiting the McCain campaign, just as Obama’s race benefitted him in states like Mississippi (and perhaps hurt him in some other states), and Mitt Romney’s mormonism benefited him in Utah (and hurt him in many other states).
It may not be politically correct to say it, but all of those things matter.
And I’m keeping my eye on gallup’s page, waiting for the next update.
September 8th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
If women switched that drastically, yet overall McCain and Obama are still tied… what does that say about every other demogaphic group? They would’ve had to massively switched to Obama, no?
September 8th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
::bubbles smashes head into table::
September 9th, 2008 at 12:10 am
Nate at 538.com’s take on the women voter swing:
“From that Washington Post poll: there was a 20-point swing toward John McCain among white women. Is this interesting and relevant? It might be interesting, but I don’t know that it’s terrifically relevant, at least as far as the electoral math goes. If McCain gained 20 points among white women in a poll where he gained 5 points among registered voters overall, that means McCain made hardly any gains with other groups (e.g. men, and nonwhite women) — in fact, he would have had to backtrack slightly with these groups to get the math to work out right. The gender gap is not very interesting to study from the standpoint of the electoral map, since sex ratios are nearly identical in each state (the West is slightly more male, but we’re talking about something that might have an impact at the tenth-of-a-point level). If the white/nonwhite gap has increased, on the other hand, that could potentially be interesting. One thing I’d like to get a sense of is how Sarah Palin plays among Hispanics.”
September 9th, 2008 at 1:22 am
“The gender gap is not very interesting to study from the standpoint of the electoral map, since sex ratios are nearly identical in each state”
The sex ratios may be similar in each state, but men and women do not necessarily vote the same, so it is interesting. I.E. if a majority of women in a particular state were once Hilary supporters, but are now McCain-Palin supporters, then it does matter. These national polls don’t give us those sorts of details, but I think you are oversimplifying it a bit.
September 9th, 2008 at 3:48 am
Let’s repeal the 19th Amendment. Problem solved.
September 9th, 2008 at 5:33 am
“If women switched that drastically, yet overall McCain and Obama are still tied… what does that say about every other demogaphic group? They would’ve had to massively switched to Obama, no?”
McCain was losing by a lot before he picked Palin, so it’s not accurate to say they are “still tied”. McCain got a bounce from the convention as well as picking Palin, and this poll shows that much of that bounce came from white women, which is significant to note considering that is most likely a direct result of him picking Palin. As Rob points out, he might have lost a little from other demographic groups, but clearly that didn’t cancel out the number of women he gained, since overall he went way up in the polls.
Whether he will hold onto the lead is another question, but there’s no question that the Palin picked helped McCain with white women.
And I agree with Matt that just because women are equally distributed, it’s still interesting to study. It could be enough to push a close state toward McCain.
(There are apparently 2 Mike’s commenting. Sorry for the confusion. I’m the Mike with his name linked)
September 10th, 2008 at 9:29 am
One disclaimer when reading any poll is that no major national poller calls cell phones, the primary means of communication for many younger voters who tend to support Obama.