Gallup: McCain Up By 5
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Biden, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Palin, Polls, RepublicansNo movement today as the post convention bounce remains steady for McCain.
Gallup alerts us that McCain’s lead could persist for a full month…
While the increased vote share a candidate receives following his convention usually diminishes, candidates who lead after the second convention usually remain the leader a month after the convention. This is based on a review of historical Gallup data since 1964 — the first year for which Gallup could reliably measure convention bounces. The only possible exception to this general pattern occurred in 1980, when Jimmy Carter had a slim one-point advantage after the Democratic National Convention but he and Ronald Reagan were exactly tied one month after Carter was nominated for a second term.Thus, if Obama regains the lead over the next month, he will be bucking the historical trend. Admittedly, most of the elections since 1964 were not as competitive as this year’s election has been, but even in closely contested election years of 1988 (George H.W. Bush led by just four points after the GOP convention that year), 2000, and 2004 the post-conventions leader usually held that position one month later.
More tomorrow…
This entry was posted on Tuesday, September 9th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Biden, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Palin, Polls, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
September 9th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Doubtful, this indicates that McCain’s bump has topped out, and like in Rasmussen, his polling numbers will likely start to decline as the older days get cycled out, by end of the week Obama should be near Mccain’s number.