McCain Leads Most Electoral Counts
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCainFirst, Electoral-Vote.com…
This is the first time he has lead in this count since the race began, and it speaks to how he has really sewn up the red states, and managed to swing states like Nevada and New Mexico back into his column.
FiveThirtyEight shows McCain with an even bigger lead…
As noted here and elsewhere, these electoral counts are usually about a week behind, so these represent McCain at the height of his post-convention bounce.
Still, this has to be cause for concern for the Obama team. If he can’t win New Mexico or Nevada, there’s a good chance he’ll lose the election.
The only bit of good news for the Obama camp? RealClearPolitics still shows him leading, but barely…
More as it develops…
This entry was posted on Monday, September 15th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
September 15th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
Yesterday’s gap at 538 was larger, today is the first day in 5 that it shrank. So far that could be noise or a sign the bounce is wearing off.
September 15th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
As you point out, these maps are a week behind the national trends and show McCain at his peak. Since these came out a new Survey USA poll has shown Obama gain 3 points and McCain lose three points in Virginia, giving him the lead.
However, just for the sake of discussion, let’s say that the first map is almost correct but add just one correction. There is speculation that Obama will pick up one electoral vote in Nebraska, which can split their vote. We saw in the nomination battle that Obama knows how to play the map to maximize gains within a state.
Flip just the one vote in Nebraska to Obama and we have a tie in the electoral college–probably giving the election to Obama in the House. (Then what if somehow the Republicans retake the Senate. Do we have Obama for president and Palin for VP?)
September 15th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
Look at the Rasmussen poll that came out today with McCain taking 3 swing states (Ohio, Florida, Colorado) and tying Barry Obama in 2 others (Penn. Virginia). Even if Obama carries the tied states, McCain wins.
Polls are fluid and do nothing more than present a fuzzy snapshot of what is happening on a particular day. However, McCain’s post convention bounce has been maintained for over two weeks. Look to the debates, where McCain has real advantages, for him to solidify his lead.
September 16th, 2008 at 10:14 am
“Do we have Obama for president and Palin for VP?”
That would be well and truly horrifying.