Comments on: McCain Leads Most Electoral Counts http://donklephant.com/2008/09/15/mccain-leads-most-electoral-counts/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Tue, 14 Feb 2012 14:03:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Bob Aman http://donklephant.com/2008/09/15/mccain-leads-most-electoral-counts/comment-page-1/#comment-416477 Bob Aman Tue, 16 Sep 2008 16:14:38 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=7970#comment-416477 "Do we have Obama for president and Palin for VP?" That would be well and truly horrifying. “Do we have Obama for president and Palin for VP?”

That would be well and truly horrifying.

]]> By: Tom Bro-KAW http://donklephant.com/2008/09/15/mccain-leads-most-electoral-counts/comment-page-1/#comment-416442 Tom Bro-KAW Tue, 16 Sep 2008 05:10:09 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=7970#comment-416442 Look at the Rasmussen poll that came out today with McCain taking 3 swing states (Ohio, Florida, Colorado) and tying Barry Obama in 2 others (Penn. Virginia). Even if Obama carries the tied states, McCain wins. Polls are fluid and do nothing more than present a fuzzy snapshot of what is happening on a particular day. However, McCain's post convention bounce has been maintained for over two weeks. Look to the debates, where McCain has real advantages, for him to solidify his lead. Look at the Rasmussen poll that came out today with McCain taking 3 swing states (Ohio, Florida, Colorado) and tying Barry Obama in 2 others (Penn. Virginia). Even if Obama carries the tied states, McCain wins.

Polls are fluid and do nothing more than present a fuzzy snapshot of what is happening on a particular day. However, McCain’s post convention bounce has been maintained for over two weeks. Look to the debates, where McCain has real advantages, for him to solidify his lead.

]]> By: Ron Chusid http://donklephant.com/2008/09/15/mccain-leads-most-electoral-counts/comment-page-1/#comment-416415 Ron Chusid Tue, 16 Sep 2008 02:12:02 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=7970#comment-416415 As you point out, these maps are a week behind the national trends and show McCain at his peak. Since these came out a new Survey USA poll has shown Obama gain 3 points and McCain lose three points in Virginia, giving him the lead. However, just for the sake of discussion, let's say that the first map is almost correct but add just one correction. There is speculation that Obama will pick up one electoral vote in Nebraska, which can split their vote. We saw in the nomination battle that Obama knows how to play the map to maximize gains within a state. Flip just the one vote in Nebraska to Obama and we have a tie in the electoral college--probably giving the election to Obama in the House. (Then what if somehow the Republicans retake the Senate. Do we have Obama for president and Palin for VP?) As you point out, these maps are a week behind the national trends and show McCain at his peak. Since these came out a new Survey USA poll has shown Obama gain 3 points and McCain lose three points in Virginia, giving him the lead.

However, just for the sake of discussion, let’s say that the first map is almost correct but add just one correction. There is speculation that Obama will pick up one electoral vote in Nebraska, which can split their vote. We saw in the nomination battle that Obama knows how to play the map to maximize gains within a state.

Flip just the one vote in Nebraska to Obama and we have a tie in the electoral college–probably giving the election to Obama in the House. (Then what if somehow the Republicans retake the Senate. Do we have Obama for president and Palin for VP?)

]]> By: Sebastian http://donklephant.com/2008/09/15/mccain-leads-most-electoral-counts/comment-page-1/#comment-416414 Sebastian Tue, 16 Sep 2008 02:11:15 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=7970#comment-416414 Yesterday's gap at 538 was larger, today is the first day in 5 that it shrank. So far that could be noise or a sign the bounce is wearing off. Yesterday’s gap at 538 was larger, today is the first day in 5 that it shrank. So far that could be noise or a sign the bounce is wearing off.

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