What surprise awaits us this October?
By Nick Ragone | Related entries in NewsPretty much every presidential election we’re guaranteed an October Surprise.
In ‘68 LBJ ordered a bombing halt of North Vietnam just days before election day to give Humphrey a boost at the polls.
In 1980 it was believed that Reagan had cut a secret deal with the Iranians to hold the release of the hostages until after the election, thus ensuring that Carter would go down in defeat. Two Congressional inquiries later and nothing was found to the charges, but the rumor has persisted for years.
1992, Independent Counsel Lawrence Walsh indicted former Reagan Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger, just days before the election, for his role in the Iran-Contra scandal. It was common knowledge that Walsh believed that President Bush had been involved in Iran-Contra, and that the timing of the indictment was politically motivated.
And in 2000, with days to go in the campaign, the media conveniently unearthed that George Bush had been arrested for DWI in 1976. Practitioners of the black arts contend that the Gore camp sat on this info until the last possible minute so as to rob Bush of any late momentum.
And so what will this year bring? Will the administration break some news just days before the election? Will McCain dredge up some new Reverend Wright footage? Will team Obama drop a Palin bombshell? Who knows … but you can count on something happening.
www.nickragone.com
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September 17th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
Maybe Bush will surprise us by remaining completely off the radar during this election season. Thus allowing America to become distracted from all the mistakes he is still making.
Hall Monitor
http://detentionslip.org
September 17th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
A last minute attempt to capture Osama bin Laden, perhaps? Certainly, for an administration that has shown little interest in capturing him, the recent increase in across the border incursions–in addition to ruffling the feathers of our Pakistani allies–kind of looks like advance scouting missions.
September 17th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
The economic meltdown accelerates and we hit Depression level collapse, with massive unemployment and Bushvilles forming all over the place
September 17th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Of course they are going to bring out the big guns! time is running out. I think the real question is who has the biggest hidden arsenal? will an Obama staffer suddenly discover a photo of McCain at a KKK ralley? Or will the McCain camp find a link between Obama and Osama….aside from the obvious rhyming lol. did anybody hear McCain declare that he could do what Bush couldnt do and find Bin Laden, he said he knows for a fact he could find him!! maybe he’ll find him on november 3……..that would be something! http://youngurbantruth.blogspot.com
September 17th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
Over the past few months a few righty blogs and/or their commentators have speculated that Bush, with nothing more to lose politically, might finally launch an attack on Iran – though some think it won’t happen until after Election Day once Bush is “officially” a lame duck, but either way, the upshot is that whoever wins would basically be walking directly into a hot war on Inauguration Day.
September 18th, 2008 at 5:28 am
An October Surprise is intended to get someone elected….not sure some of these scenarios fit the bill
As for invading Iran, how could he justify it? The Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002 does not allow for it, so with the exception of individual incursions into Iran for Iraq related reasons, he simply doesn’t have the authority to authorize an actual invasion. I know, I know, not having the authority for something hasn’t stopped this guyin the past, but in a case like this, I could actually see the military saying, “No, sir.”
Wouldn’t that be a wonderful end to an inglorious presidency?
September 18th, 2008 at 7:35 am
The “october surprise” meme is really just the paranoid spin on how showy events in the month or two prior to the election always get spun and counterspun for all they are worth.
Now granted, I am sure at least some of the previous election-time “surprises” were part of a sophisticated political calculus. However, a problem lies in how readily such a line of reasoning feeds a hungry political paranoia.
The world does not stop for our presidential election. Suppose momentous events occur in the month prior to the election. Don’t momentous events occur with a fair amount of regularity? How are we to know the difference between calculated political maneuvering and reasonable responses to the event of the day?
For example, haven’t various tinhorn political figures overseas become ever more savvy as to the American political cycle and how to use it to their advantage? Suppose Iran is preparing to leave a flaming bag of poop on the White House doorstep come October. No matter what the US response, critics of the response will say that they did the wrong thing instead of the right thing for political reasons.
An aggressive Bush response in this instance would be spun as just more proof that Bush is bloodthirsty and unreasonable. Some nuts will even say that Bush is carrying water for McCain to keep the blood off McCain’s hands. And a measured diplomatic response? That’ll be spun as over-timidity for the sake of the political calculus of the upcoming election.
IMO, the real story here is not “october surprise.” It’s more simply the idea that whatever momentous and negative events occur over the next 6 weeks will be spun for all they are worth.
The virtue of this PoV, at least for me, is that it saves me from the jackassery of indulging in the kind of pure evidence-free speculation inevitably fueled by overheated partisan leanings in the waning days of the election campaign.
September 18th, 2008 at 7:51 am
Really – an October surprise? You forgot the bin-Laden film in 2004 (timed to release just before the general). If past behavior is any prediction of future behavior expect something consistent with social division, economic division, fear mongering, terrorism, or some other manufactured threat to our national security. The Republicans are set to lose large and won’t go down without a fight irregardless of whether or not it’s fair or honest.
September 18th, 2008 at 7:53 am
How about this for a “September Surprise?”
What does this say about the security/integrity of Yahoo! and all their free email servers?
Either…
1) Yahoo needs to do some serious work on bolstering the security of their email servers;
or…
2) There was no “security breach†in this incident, because it was an “inside job.†Either Palin carelessly left her passwords out in the open (jotted down on a notepad on her desk), or maybe her passwords were easy to guess… her middle name, or the name of one of her children.
Don’t rush to judgment before all the facts are in…
Agnostick
agnostick@excite.com
http://www.uscentrist.org
http://marciaford.blogspot.com