Comments on: Forget The Polls…Follow The Futures Market To Learn The Next President http://donklephant.com/2008/09/30/forget-the-pollsfollow-the-futures-market-to-learn-the-next-president/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Tue, 14 Feb 2012 14:03:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Politickr http://donklephant.com/2008/09/30/forget-the-pollsfollow-the-futures-market-to-learn-the-next-president/comment-page-1/#comment-418689 Politickr Sun, 05 Oct 2008 11:17:58 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=8465#comment-418689 Hi! I’m a journalist and a political day trader who follows these market developments at my blog, http://politickr.blogspot.com. If you’re interested in tracking Intrade and pundit predictions, you should check it out. Hi! I’m a journalist and a political day trader who follows these market developments at my blog, http://politickr.blogspot.com. If you’re interested in tracking Intrade and pundit predictions, you should check it out.

]]> By: mdgeorge http://donklephant.com/2008/09/30/forget-the-pollsfollow-the-futures-market-to-learn-the-next-president/comment-page-1/#comment-418024 mdgeorge Wed, 01 Oct 2008 13:26:19 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=8465#comment-418024 Responding to myself and Rob: Nate's analysis was for the presidential-level market, whereas the charts shown here (and on intrade's front page now) use state-by-state markets. For what it's worth. Responding to myself and Rob: Nate’s analysis was for the presidential-level market, whereas the charts shown here (and on intrade’s front page now) use state-by-state markets. For what it’s worth.

]]> By: mdgeorge http://donklephant.com/2008/09/30/forget-the-pollsfollow-the-futures-market-to-learn-the-next-president/comment-page-1/#comment-417992 mdgeorge Wed, 01 Oct 2008 04:04:14 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=8465#comment-417992 Nate Silver, who does an excellent job of "making composite polls from various sources and using them as a predictor" has pointed out some funny business in the details of the Intrade trades: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-suspcious.html Don't know if this is still accurate. Nate Silver, who does an excellent job of “making composite polls from various sources and using them as a predictor” has pointed out some funny business in the details of the Intrade trades:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-suspcious.html

Don’t know if this is still accurate.

]]> By: Rob in Denver http://donklephant.com/2008/09/30/forget-the-pollsfollow-the-futures-market-to-learn-the-next-president/comment-page-1/#comment-417990 Rob in Denver Wed, 01 Oct 2008 04:01:39 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=8465#comment-417990 Nate at FiveThirtyEight has a recent post about Intrade. He thinks <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-suspcious.html" rel="nofollow">people are gaming the market</a>. <blockquote>It's pretty obvious that this is not some sort of random walk. Rather, every so often, some individual trader or some small group of traders are shorting all the Obama contacts in bulk and resetting the entire market. The markets then organically climb back upward until the rogue trader strikes again six or eight hours later. The volumes on these contracts have been very high for the past week as a result.</blockquote> Nate at FiveThirtyEight has a recent post about Intrade. He thinks people are gaming the market.

It’s pretty obvious that this is not some sort of random walk. Rather, every so often, some individual trader or some small group of traders are shorting all the Obama contacts in bulk and resetting the entire market. The markets then organically climb back upward until the rogue trader strikes again six or eight hours later. The volumes on these contracts have been very high for the past week as a result.

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