Electoral Outlook Improves For Obama
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls5 days ago I did this same post, and since Obama’s national polling lead is holding steady, I thought I’d run the numbers again to see if there was any lift in his direction.
There is. Not only that, McCain has lost ground.
Five Thirty Eight: Obama 339.2, McCain 198.8
Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 329, McCain 194, Ties 15
Real Clear Politics: Obama 364, McCain 174
Pollster: Obama 296, McCain 163, Ties 79
Electoral Projection Averages: Obama 340.4, McCain 197.6
Of note, I do account for the ties here and split them evenly between the candidates, even though that may not be an accurate representation of how the actual electoral votes would be allocated.
In any event, these are the numbers last week…
Electoral Projection Averages: Obama 327, McCain 201
Also last week, this is what I predicted would happen given McCain’s bleak electoral outlook…
As mentioned previously, you can bet the McCain camp is seeing these numbers and preparing a barrage of negative ads to drive up Obama’s negatives. The only issue with this is Obama has the debate platform to combat this and help reassure voters he’s not the bogeyman that McCain is trying to make him out to be.
Looks like that held true and you can expect more to follow.
More next week.
This entry was posted on Monday, October 6th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
October 7th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Justin,
I just discovered your site while researching an argument for doing away with the electoral college. Fascinating, indeed. If only the rest of the media were so “fair and balanced.”
I anticipate that tonight, Barack Obama will prove himself at least the equal of John McCain in a “town hall” format, and we will see no dramatic shifts in the polls by the end of the day tomorrow unless the stock market continues its tumble. If that occurs, than the only thing that keeps Obama out of the White House is tragedy - for if there were really some “smoking gun”, and Bill Ayers certainly doesn’t qualify in that regard, we would certainly know it already.
Keep up the good work, and God bless America - we certainly could use some blessings right now.
Reed Mahoney
Tallahassee, Florida
October 8th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
[...] 2 days ago I looked at the numbers, and at that time the average of the top 4 electoral sites shook out like this: [...]