Where I Stand With Four Weeks to Go
By Alan Stewart Carl | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Economy, Foreign Policy, Health Care, Iraq, McCain, PalinThere are four weeks until the election and I’m still not 100% sure who I will vote for.
While I hope that my posts over the last month have made clear my respect for and problems with both candidates, I thought I’d take a moment to update the regular readers on where I stand.
I’ve broken matters down to several key issues and hope my remarks spur a little debate.
The rest of the post is after the break.
Economy: I worry about John McCain on this issue. His reactions to the financial crisis have been unfocused. He bashes Wall Street and talks about more regulations but is pushing an agenda not too far removed from George W. Bush’s. If McCain thinks Bush has been generally correct about the economy, I want to hear him say why. I’d give him a listen.
As for Barack Obama, I think he’s shown intelligence and a willingness to place fact over partisanship, but I wish he had a more dynamic economic plan. It’s almost the same as John Kerry’s. We could use some newer ideas not so reliant on tax-and-spend proposals.
International Relations: I’m a realist when it comes to foreign affairs and have found the neo-con approach to be a disaster. McCain is part realist and part neo-con. Obama is part realist and part idealist. For the most part, I prefer Obama’s less antagonistic approach. He’s convinced me he will still defend our interests, even if he’s more willing to engage our adversaries than is McCain. Like it or not, President Bush has diminished our power and standing in the world. I’m not foolish enough to think that electing Obama will be like hitting the reset button, but, so far, I have more faith in his approach than I do in McCain’s.
Iraq: The recent successes in Iraq have left both candidates advancing similar plans of a phased, responsible withdrawal. The surge has ironically worked more to Obama’s favor than McCain’s by making Iraq a secondary issue and leaving little room for disagreement on how we proceed. McCain was right about the surge and gets my respect for that. And I worry that while Obama was right in his opposition to the invasion, he’s been consistently wrong about how we wage the conflict.
Reform: McCain has a record of advancing reform. Obama mainly just talks about it. I don’t really believe that a Democratic president and a Democratic Congress are going to initiate many governmental reforms, unless you define reform as changing the apparatuses of power from Republican control to Democratic control. Government has a much better chance of seeing reform with McCain sparring against a Democratic congress. The decision I have to make is whether getting the Republicans out of power is more important than advancing the kind of systematic reform McCain could deliver.
Healthcare: I think both candidate’s plans are wholly inadequate and full of problems. Obama’s plan just shifts around cost burdens while McCain’s will likely do little to increase the number of insured Americans (although I like several of his specific reforms). A Republican president and a Democratic Congress have the best chance of crafting a reasonable plan, but I’m not counting on that level of cooperation on this issue. I will not be making healthcare my deciding vote despite the fact that healthcare is of real concern to me and my family.
Leadership: I have made a personal pledge not to allow one or two politically motivated moves influence my vote. Politicians play silly games and, while I don’t like it, I can’t disqualify a candidate because of a few stupid ads or a few partisan attacks. That said, McCain hasn’t impressed me recently. Most notably, the choice of Sarah Palin as VP was too much of a reach. She’s not ready to lead and I’m unimpressed by the fact that she seems to be a real person. That’s nice but I’m more concerned with whether she is a real leader. She may be ready to be a national candidate in a few years, but she’s not ready now.
The Palin pick is part of a pattern of go-for-broke maneuvers McCain has tried. I understand that the candidate trailing in a race will be more desperate. But that doesn’t excuse the Palin choice or such stunts as the bailout bill campaign suspensions and the numerous deceptive ads that are anything but straight-talk. Obama has hardly been a saint here, but he’s shown a steadier hand, even when he was briefly behind after the convention.
All that said, I am still concerned about Obama’s experience. Does he have the depth of knowledge and breadth of experience necessary to make the right decisions in tough situations. To me, Obama is a higher risk, higher reward candidate. He has the potential to be both a much better and a much worse president than McCain. The question is: are we willing to roll the dice?
Final thoughts: I’ve found myself leaning towards Obama lately. But I know part of that is because I live my life surrounded by Obama supporters. And part of that is because, despite my current tendency to hover a little right of center, I’ve never voted for a Republican for president. Obama is the easy choice for me. But this shouldn’t be easy. That’s why I refuse to commit until at least the end of the debates.
In fact, I might think about my decision until the moment I enter the voting booth.
There’s a lot to consider.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, October 7th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Economy, Foreign Policy, Health Care, Iraq, McCain, Palin. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
October 7th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Alan,
Good post. You did a good job of explaining the pluses and minuses of each candidate.
October 7th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Fantastic post. Thanks for sharing. I’m a strong believer that after all the campaigning and politics and games and ads and debates, it comes down to just you and that booth. Anyone can say anything they like, but its ultimately an individual choice, and an individual right on who you vote for.
October 7th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Regarding Reform - What specific reform issues do you see as being all that critical AND as having a realistic chance to get enacted after the election of either candidate? I honestly can’t imagine much that fits that description so for me the point is moot.
Other Concerns:
VP Pick - McCain is very old. Obama would be the first black president in a nation that is historically quite racist. More ominously, I am afraid that we are entering a period when many countries might believe that furthering political instability in the US would be in their interest. The VP having to take over the reigns is not the biggest concern, but it should certainly be a concern.
Prosecution of Past Misdeeds - I’ve said this over and over again and it is probably my biggest issue. I think the misdeeds of this past administration should be investigated vigorously and those responsible to be brought to trial. I am specifically referring to our nation’s use of torture. It is immensely important to make an example of those who signed off on these programs so that it never happens again (would help our international standing too). Not that a McCain administration would support torture, but specifically who’s more likely to prosecute?
October 7th, 2008 at 10:56 am
I agree with Dennis above, good post Alan!
I am leaning to wards Obama too, but I have made a recent decision regarding McCain. After all I have seen of his straight talk and how he has shown his honor, there is no way in hell I am voting for him!
Can he swing me back? Maybe. But he better be very impressive.
So I probably will vote for Obama. I believe it is my duty to vote for the best candidate, and if I can’t vote Obama for some unforeseen reason, I will chose a 3rd party candidate.
Many say it would be a wasted vote. Keep in mind that if enough votes are cast for a 3rd party candidate, that candidate can receive federal funds next election. We were not founded on a two party system. I don’t like how the two current parties work to ensure no other party can compete effectively. Please correct me if I have this really screwed up because I need to know.
At this point I will be voting Obama, unless he demonstrates a significant reason not to vote for him.
October 7th, 2008 at 11:30 am
As part of leadership capabilities, I might also look at who the candidate’s surround themselves with. The ability to pick a strong group of advisers is paramount to good decision-making in my book.
I only know about each candidate’s economic advisers, but from what I can tell (and coming from an Obama supporter, though I try hard to not be too partisan) Obama has a pretty diverse group of moderates, and although they tend to be left-leaning they are well-respected among all persuasions in their respective fields. McCain appears to have less qualified advisers on economic issues and they seem to be a bit more partisan, judging by run-downs on each candidate’s economic policies by institutions such as the Tax Policy Center.
Anyway, if anyone has more information on advisers in other areas such as foreign policy that might be useful. Also if people are interested I will provide links to each candidate’s respective list of advisers.
October 7th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Great post. I happen to disagree about several of the specifics, but it was really wonderful to see a calm analytical view of what both candidates offer, and what their weak points (as, potentially, President, not as a candidate) are.
October 7th, 2008 at 11:47 am
mccain’s health care plan is about the worst thing ever. the 5000 tax credit is offset in tax increases on business designed to throw people into the market where the cost of comparable health care is more than 5000 and where the price will only increase meaning the value of the credit is reduced over time. He also proposed to cut medicare for seniors. seniors need that care because they cannot get affordable private insurance. mccains plan will make everything worse. Obama’s plan might not be stellar but it will increase the number of people who get insured and at the very least he wont make the problem dramatically worse.
the post before mine mentioned the prosecution of past misdeeds and if you care at all about that you have to go obama. mccain has not demonstrated that he recognizes any misdeeds to prosecute.
October 7th, 2008 at 11:50 am
L: I don’t believe for a second that Samantha Power is gone from Obama’s foreign affairs advisory staff. Which is good. She is spectacular.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Ditto - great post. As a dispassionate reader, I think your reasoning adds up to an Obama pick. The only thing I would disagree with in your post is that McCain seems like more of a roll-of-the-dice than Obama. I’m personally not comfortable with his go-for-broke mentality. It feels too close the “gut” decision making that Bush employs. Whatever your decision on election day, I appreciate your well reasoned article. Well done.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
Can someone Please confirm if this is true about Palin?
As mayor of Wasilla, Palin hired a city administrator, as Salon wrote:
When Palin ran for mayor, she dismissed concerns about her lack of managerial expertise by saying the job was “not rocket science.” But after a tumultuous start, marked by controversial firings and lawsuits against the city, Palin felt compelled to hire a city manager named John Cramer to steady the ship.“After all her boasting about her executive experience, what did she do?” asks a longtime borough official, who, like many in local circles, requested anonymity because of Palin’s reputation for vengeance…“The borough takes care of most of the planning, the fire, the ambulance, collecting the property taxes. And on top of that she brought in a city manager to actually run the city day to day.”
The Anchorage Daily News reported about the city administrator position:
(Palin was) reworking the city budget to find money for the $50,000-a-year position, which had been empty for several years. Critics said it showed she wasn’t up to the job, but Palin defended it as necessary for the fast-growing city.
The Washington Post reported more on Wasilla’s government:
The universe of the mayor of Wasilla is sharply circumscribed even by the standards of small towns, which limited Palin’s exposure to issues such as health care, social services, the environment and education.
http://dailysource.org/palin
October 7th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
What’s well-reasoned about claiming McCain has all this foreign policy experience and Obama has little? There is good experience and bad experience. There is also the phenomenon of repeating one year of experience thirty times. That’s McCain: he’s still living with a cold war mentality, thinks we could have won in Vietnam, thinks we are “winning” in Iraq and wants to “win” in Afghanistan. I’ll take Obama international relations education, his several years in the Senate and his wisdom any day over John McCain’s one year of foreign policy experience.
Also, whatever reforms you may have in mind for McCain, he, McCain has probably already rejected them and moved on to the neo-con poistions. He’s a reformer in his own mind. Period.
After George Bush defamed him and his family, he hugs George Bush. What kind of man is this? He sold his soul long ago. Goldwater could not stand him and the Reagans could not stand him. Whatever one thinks of their their policies, no one ever seriously doubted the integrity of either one.
October 7th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Nicely put together Alan. I agree with much of what you say.
I’m of mixed minds when it comes to reform, though. On the one hand, I agree with you that a divided gov’t could come up with reform that’s more of a compromise between the ideas both sides have. But it’s also a stalemate recipe, which is maybe the last thing we need. So on the other hand, a gov’t where one party controls the exec and legis branches is better able to swing reform strongly in one direction. A good direction? That’s a partisan mileage issue, right?
When I consider this, it does give me pause when I consider the high likelihood that Obama rubber stamps his party’s big gov’t/new programs approach. Obama seems smart and realistic, so I have kept waiting for him to show sensible deviation from party line approaches. But so far he really hasn’t. Will he do so after getting elected? OK to hope for, but no reason to expect it at this point.
Cast our minds ahead a bit, presuming Obama wins. What does he have to do to be a two-term President if the incipient economic malaise extends 2, 3, or more years? If he enacts a bunch of “tax the rich and big businesses for new programs” approach and things stay bad, I think that makes him a one-termer.
I think that either Obama shows a thirst to understand economics and a facility for it, and deviates from a very liberal approach, or the next President needs to be an economist, If we have an ongoing lousy economy come 2011, whose prospects does that help most? Mitt Romney’s? Clearly, with hindsight, Romney would have been a very fortuitous choice for McCain. In fact, that would be a very interesting October surprise if Palin were to step aside so that a guy well-versed in economics could be on the GOP ticket.
October 7th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Nicely done. I agree with pretty much every word.
Despite my general cranky-pants attitude I’m an optimist. The US is about the future. I have not wavered from my support for Obama, not because I agree with everything he says, or think he’s the anointed one, but because he holds out at least the possibility, however slight, of a better future.
I have kids. Have to go with the guy I at least hope can give them a better country. Of course, knowing my kids they’ll promptly set about breaking the country and fighting over the pieces, but hey, I’ll have done what I could.