Obama and the Potential Bradley Effect
By Alan Stewart Carl | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, RaceYou know the presidential campaign has taken a turn against John McCain when everyone stops talking about how close the elections will be and starts talking about Barack Obama’s big lead and the potential for a rout. So, should Obama supporters start ordering the cake and balloons for their November election-night parties? Maybe not yet. Not only can overconfidence lead to lower voter turnout for Obama, but we still don’t know if there will be a Bradley effect.
Unfortunately, American electoral politics has consistently shown that, when a black candidate is running against a white candidate, the black candidate’s pre-election poll numbers end up being higher than their actual vote tally. The theory is that certain white voters, for fear of seeming racist, will tell pollsters they are voting for the black candidate when they actually intend to vote for the white candidate. Or, they change their vote at the last minute.
Whatever the cause of the Bradley effect, we can’t assume it won’t apply this November. Already in this election cycle, some observers questioned if the effect played a role in the New Hampshire primary where polls showed Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton by as much as 13% before he ended up losing the state by 3%. There are plenty of other reasonable explanations for the discrepancy (not the least of which is bad polling) but, certainly, the Bradley effect is a real concern.
I do believe we are a less racist nation now than we were even ten years ago and I’d be surprised if a significant number of voters are intentionally misleading pollsters. I expect, barring one heck of an October surprise, that Obama will win. But it’ll be interesting to see if there’s any Bradley effect in what is the biggest election ever between a black candidate and a white one.
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October 9th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Is America ready to elect a president with darker skin pigmentation than the previous 42 individuals to hold that office?
October 9th, 2008 at 8:50 am
While there may be few voters who are intentionally misleading pollsters, there are many who will find some excuse to vote against Obama, and even their own best interests, once they close the curtain at the voting booth. They, all of the sudden, will realize how important “victory” in Iraq is, or that McCain is a hero who deserves our vote, or that McCain a reformer and regulator, too, or that Michelle Obama hates America, or that we really do not know Barack Obama. Never underestimate the human capacity to deceive one’s self especially on racial matters.
October 9th, 2008 at 9:40 am
Let’s hope that people will vote for the RIGHT person because of what he can do to lead this country back to where it should be and not be so RACIST as to vote against the man because of his color. Come on…I think America has grown a whole lot since slavery. And if it has not, shame on us & that is the reason other countries are laughing at us.
October 9th, 2008 at 10:29 am
[...] and others are claiming. Donklephant is not being a doomsayer, but he does argue that the Bradley effect cannot be ignored. And he is right. It can’t. Slacking off, even a little, could lose Obama [...]
October 9th, 2008 at 10:41 am
I think we’re less racist than we were even five months ago. At the least, the whole economic mess has given a lot of people the proper perspective about voting for candidates. You vote for qualifications, or perceived qualifications, and not on personality or race or other things which are objectively not very relevant.
October 9th, 2008 at 11:06 am
According to MSNBC, the Bradley effect shows that the pol numbers for the black candidate turns out to equal the voter numbers, but the white candidate’s numbers go up (meaning that the “undecideds” swing for the white candidate in the polling booth). That makes sense that a racist person is more likely to say “undecided” to a pollster than to outright lie and say they will vote for the black candidate, but then not do so for racist reasons.
If this interpretation of the Bradley effect applies in this election, then we need to compare the undecided vote to Obama’s lead. If there are more undecides than the spread, then Obama is vulnerable. Not sure if that’s the case right now or not. Also, MSNBC indicates that the Bradely effect has not happened in subsequent Black candidate vs. White candidate races, so it may be that it no longer applies. Let’s hope for all our sakes, that the Bradely effect is in the dustbin of history. I guess we’ll see.
October 9th, 2008 at 11:21 am
Interesting to note that a Gallup poll explores some of this issue today:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111049/Obamas-Race-May-Much-Plus-Minus.aspx
October 9th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Not exactly sure what to say to this. Not only has it not been “consistently” shown (it’s still named after Bradley because there are only two salient examples, one of whom actually won), but Obama hasn’t really underperformed his polls in primaries. In NH it was Hillary who heavily overperformed, thanks in large part to the teary moment firming up some of her soft support. Elsewhere…well, he’s the nominee, and I think that kind of speaks for itself.
I don’t know whether there’s going to be a Bradley effect, but I think it seriously improbable that it might swing the outcome. There are bigger fish to fry, no?
October 11th, 2008 at 10:02 am
[...] There is talk of the Bradley Effect, which is when people, afraid to seem racist, tell the polls that they are voting for a black [...]
October 15th, 2008 at 6:43 am
BEWARE of the BRADLEY EFFECT – you’d discount and discredit polls and exit polls too if you’re trying to steal an election.
Electronic voting systems can be easily hacked – here’s a link to exploitable security vulnerabilities in electronic voting systems:
http://www.crypto.com/blog/ohio_voting
or Google Ohio State Project Everest.
HappinessHacker.com – Atlanta
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:51 pm
[...] the right man is elected as President. We must be vigilant that shady polling practices and the Bradley effect do not take their toll on this [...]