Comments on: Obama and the Potential Bradley Effect http://donklephant.com/2008/10/09/obama-and-the-potential-bradley-effect/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Mon, 23 Nov 2009 19:41:00 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: November 4th, 2008: Election Day « http://donklephant.com/2008/10/09/obama-and-the-potential-bradley-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-422742 November 4th, 2008: Election Day « Tue, 04 Nov 2008 05:51:43 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=8912#comment-422742 [...] the right man is elected as President. We must be vigilant that shady polling practices and the Bradley effect do not take their toll on this [...] [...] the right man is elected as President. We must be vigilant that shady polling practices and the Bradley effect do not take their toll on this [...]

]]> By: HappinessHacker http://donklephant.com/2008/10/09/obama-and-the-potential-bradley-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-419858 HappinessHacker Wed, 15 Oct 2008 12:43:59 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=8912#comment-419858 BEWARE of the BRADLEY EFFECT - you'd discount and discredit polls and exit polls too if you're trying to steal an election. Electronic voting systems can be easily hacked - here's a link to exploitable security vulnerabilities in electronic voting systems: http://www.crypto.com/blog/ohio_voting or Google Ohio State Project Everest. HappinessHacker.com - Atlanta BEWARE of the BRADLEY EFFECT – you’d discount and discredit polls and exit polls too if you’re trying to steal an election.

Electronic voting systems can be easily hacked – here’s a link to exploitable security vulnerabilities in electronic voting systems:

http://www.crypto.com/blog/ohio_voting

or Google Ohio State Project Everest.

HappinessHacker.com – Atlanta

]]> By: Racism and Dirty Politics in the 2008 Presidential Campaign « http://donklephant.com/2008/10/09/obama-and-the-potential-bradley-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-419501 Racism and Dirty Politics in the 2008 Presidential Campaign « Sat, 11 Oct 2008 16:02:55 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=8912#comment-419501 [...] There is talk of the Bradley Effect, which is when people, afraid to seem racist, tell the polls that they are voting for a black [...] [...] There is talk of the Bradley Effect, which is when people, afraid to seem racist, tell the polls that they are voting for a black [...]

]]> By: Mike B. http://donklephant.com/2008/10/09/obama-and-the-potential-bradley-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-419349 Mike B. Thu, 09 Oct 2008 21:11:39 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=8912#comment-419349 Not exactly sure what to say to this. Not only has it not been "consistently" shown (it's still named after Bradley because there are only two salient examples, one of whom actually won), but Obama hasn't really underperformed his polls in primaries. In NH it was Hillary who heavily overperformed, thanks in large part to the teary moment firming up some of her soft support. Elsewhere...well, he's the nominee, and I think that kind of speaks for itself. I don't know whether there's going to be a Bradley effect, but I think it seriously improbable that it might swing the outcome. There are bigger fish to fry, no? Not exactly sure what to say to this. Not only has it not been “consistently” shown (it’s still named after Bradley because there are only two salient examples, one of whom actually won), but Obama hasn’t really underperformed his polls in primaries. In NH it was Hillary who heavily overperformed, thanks in large part to the teary moment firming up some of her soft support. Elsewhere…well, he’s the nominee, and I think that kind of speaks for itself.

I don’t know whether there’s going to be a Bradley effect, but I think it seriously improbable that it might swing the outcome. There are bigger fish to fry, no?

]]> By: Jake http://donklephant.com/2008/10/09/obama-and-the-potential-bradley-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-419325 Jake Thu, 09 Oct 2008 17:21:56 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=8912#comment-419325 Interesting to note that a Gallup poll explores some of this issue today: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111049/Obamas-Race-May-Much-Plus-Minus.aspx Interesting to note that a Gallup poll explores some of this issue today:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111049/Obamas-Race-May-Much-Plus-Minus.aspx

]]> By: mike mcEachran http://donklephant.com/2008/10/09/obama-and-the-potential-bradley-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-419323 mike mcEachran Thu, 09 Oct 2008 17:06:29 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=8912#comment-419323 According to MSNBC, the Bradley effect shows that the pol numbers for the black candidate turns out to equal the voter numbers, but the white candidate's numbers go up (meaning that the "undecideds" swing for the white candidate in the polling booth). That makes sense that a racist person is more likely to say "undecided" to a pollster than to outright lie and say they will vote for the black candidate, but then not do so for racist reasons. If this interpretation of the Bradley effect applies in this election, then we need to compare the undecided vote to Obama's lead. If there are more undecides than the spread, then Obama is vulnerable. Not sure if that's the case right now or not. Also, MSNBC indicates that the Bradely effect has not happened in subsequent Black candidate vs. White candidate races, so it may be that it no longer applies. Let's hope for all our sakes, that the Bradely effect is in the dustbin of history. I guess we'll see. According to MSNBC, the Bradley effect shows that the pol numbers for the black candidate turns out to equal the voter numbers, but the white candidate’s numbers go up (meaning that the “undecideds” swing for the white candidate in the polling booth). That makes sense that a racist person is more likely to say “undecided” to a pollster than to outright lie and say they will vote for the black candidate, but then not do so for racist reasons.

If this interpretation of the Bradley effect applies in this election, then we need to compare the undecided vote to Obama’s lead. If there are more undecides than the spread, then Obama is vulnerable. Not sure if that’s the case right now or not. Also, MSNBC indicates that the Bradely effect has not happened in subsequent Black candidate vs. White candidate races, so it may be that it no longer applies. Let’s hope for all our sakes, that the Bradely effect is in the dustbin of history. I guess we’ll see.

]]> By: Jon http://donklephant.com/2008/10/09/obama-and-the-potential-bradley-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-419315 Jon Thu, 09 Oct 2008 16:41:12 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=8912#comment-419315 <blockquote>I do believe we are a less racist nation now than we were even ten years ago and I’d be surprised if a significant number of voters are intentionally misleading pollsters.</blockquote> I think we're less racist than we were even five months ago. At the least, the whole economic mess has given a lot of people the proper perspective about voting for candidates. You vote for qualifications, or perceived qualifications, and not on personality or race or other things which are objectively not very relevant.

I do believe we are a less racist nation now than we were even ten years ago and I’d be surprised if a significant number of voters are intentionally misleading pollsters.

I think we’re less racist than we were even five months ago. At the least, the whole economic mess has given a lot of people the proper perspective about voting for candidates. You vote for qualifications, or perceived qualifications, and not on personality or race or other things which are objectively not very relevant.

]]> By: Don’t get cocky, kid! « junkdrawer67 http://donklephant.com/2008/10/09/obama-and-the-potential-bradley-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-419314 Don’t get cocky, kid! « junkdrawer67 Thu, 09 Oct 2008 16:29:13 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=8912#comment-419314 [...] and others are claiming. Donklephant is not being a doomsayer, but he does argue that the Bradley effect cannot be ignored. And he is right. It can’t. Slacking off, even a little, could lose Obama [...] [...] and others are claiming. Donklephant is not being a doomsayer, but he does argue that the Bradley effect cannot be ignored. And he is right. It can’t. Slacking off, even a little, could lose Obama [...]

]]> By: Robinson http://donklephant.com/2008/10/09/obama-and-the-potential-bradley-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-419310 Robinson Thu, 09 Oct 2008 15:40:44 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=8912#comment-419310 Let's hope that people will vote for the RIGHT person because of what he can do to lead this country back to where it should be and not be so RACIST as to vote against the man because of his color. Come on...I think America has grown a whole lot since slavery. And if it has not, shame on us & that is the reason other countries are laughing at us. Let’s hope that people will vote for the RIGHT person because of what he can do to lead this country back to where it should be and not be so RACIST as to vote against the man because of his color. Come on…I think America has grown a whole lot since slavery. And if it has not, shame on us & that is the reason other countries are laughing at us.

]]> By: Regis http://donklephant.com/2008/10/09/obama-and-the-potential-bradley-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-419305 Regis Thu, 09 Oct 2008 14:50:20 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=8912#comment-419305 While there may be few voters who are intentionally misleading pollsters, there are many who will find some excuse to vote against Obama, and even their own best interests, once they close the curtain at the voting booth. They, all of the sudden, will realize how important "victory" in Iraq is, or that McCain is a hero who deserves our vote, or that McCain a reformer and regulator, too, or that Michelle Obama hates America, or that we really do not know Barack Obama. Never underestimate the human capacity to deceive one's self especially on racial matters. While there may be few voters who are intentionally misleading pollsters, there are many who will find some excuse to vote against Obama, and even their own best interests, once they close the curtain at the voting booth. They, all of the sudden, will realize how important “victory” in Iraq is, or that McCain is a hero who deserves our vote, or that McCain a reformer and regulator, too, or that Michelle Obama hates America, or that we really do not know Barack Obama. Never underestimate the human capacity to deceive one’s self especially on racial matters.

]]> By: bubbles http://donklephant.com/2008/10/09/obama-and-the-potential-bradley-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-419304 bubbles Thu, 09 Oct 2008 14:44:10 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=8912#comment-419304 Is America ready to elect a president with darker skin pigmentation than the previous 42 individuals to hold that office? Is America ready to elect a president with darker skin pigmentation than the previous 42 individuals to hold that office?

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