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A New Electoral Reality: Obama 380, McCain 158

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Electoral College, History, McCain, West Virginia

With West Virginia now being thrown into the toss-up column on Pollster.com and FiveThirtyEight, this is what it would look like if Obama won all the swing states.

What’s more, if electoral history is any judge, the pickup of West Virginia wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise. Going back to the election of 1968, Dems have won the state 6 out of the last 10 elections.

Still, is it likely that Obama will get 380?

No. My best guess is he won’t pick up West Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina or Missouri, which would leave him at 318. Obviously that’s still a healthy margin, and would be considered a big win, but not a landslide.

Also, here’s another handy guide from DemConWatch that aggregates all of the polls and shows which pollster considers states going for Obama, Obama Leaning, Tied, McCain Leaning and going for McCain.

More as it develops…

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This entry was posted on Friday, October 10th, 2008 and is filed under Barack, Electoral College, History, McCain, West Virginia. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

3 Responses to “A New Electoral Reality: Obama 380, McCain 158”

  1. Stuperb Says:
    October 10th, 2008 at 8:22 am

    While I love to see the blue steadily spreading southward and westward from New England, and I think that the overall picture looks good for Obama right now, I’d be *really* surprised if Obama took West Virginia.

    Come on, Obama. Surprise me!

  2. owen Says:
    October 10th, 2008 at 4:14 pm

    Wow. in the Dem Primary Obama only got 26% to Hillary’s 67% and Edwards’ 7% (who had already dropped out). For Obama to win WV would be amazing considering the Appalachians is perhaps the most racist region of the country (after Boston of course ;-)

  3. Robert Says:
    October 10th, 2008 at 11:30 pm

    I can not wait until this election is over, and the liberal media discovers that they do not control this country. I have a feeling that McCain has a better chance at getting 380 than Obama. McCain is called the comeback king for many reasons. The truth is that the polls are not accurate. We shall see in November.

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