Comments on: Dick Morris’ Crazy Electoral Map

By: Jackson

Jackson — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 03:45:29 +0000

Ed, you are a moron! McCain is a leader, experienced, mature, seasoned, a war hero and he will win this crazy election where everyone from CNN to CBS is in the tank for the other side. Obama is NOT the black madonna!
People, wake up! This guy is a JUNIOR Senator with no real world experience to lead this nation.

By: Rich Horton

Rich Horton — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 21:32:16 +0000

I never understand the point of trying to destroy federalism. Additionally, I’ve never seen an analysis that betters that of Madison, Hamilton and Jay.

I’ve generally found that attempts to “fix” what isn’t broken only lead to actually breaking things.

By: susan

susan — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 17:15:34 +0000

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

By: The Good, the Bad, and the Insightful - October 15, 2008 « The 59 Second Minute

Thu, 16 Oct 2008 01:59:22 +0000

[...] Donklephant linked Dick Morris’s atrocious electoral predictions. [...]

By: Avinash_Tyagi

Avinash_Tyagi — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 23:44:26 +0000

I’m predicting 333-405 Electoral Votes, with 364 being the most likely, based on recent polls

By: Rich Horton

Rich Horton — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 23:22:18 +0000

Just to clarify…my thoughts are based upon if the election were held today. There will be possible changes of course.

Good to know I sound more plausible than Morris.

By: bubbles

bubbles — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 23:16:48 +0000

I’m not making any predictions until election day.

But I will say that Obama’s got the wide advantage.

By: leapsecond

leapsecond — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 23:04:24 +0000

I don’t know what’s more astounding: Morris’s map or someone referring to Morris as a “political analyst extraordinaire”…

By: Justin Gardner

Justin Gardner — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 21:22:11 +0000

Rich, I actually think that’s right on. I think McCain will break 200 barely, and so Obama stays in the 330 range. That’s my prediction too.

By: rusty075

rusty075 — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 21:15:26 +0000

Exiled, the Bradley Effect has been pretty soundly debunked this cycle. A lot has changed since its namesake election. You should check out Nate Silver’s analysis of it over at FiveThirtyEight.

Not that I want to give any credence to Morrisâ€™ wackiness, but he may not be far off about Arizona. Something odd started happening here in Phoenix last weekend: Obama has been buying commercial airtime. One of the blessings of being in one of the candidateâ€™s home states is that weâ€™ve seen zero presidential advertising since the Dem primary. But since last weekend thereâ€™s been about 1 Obama ad per hour during primetime on the local stations.

Either Obamaâ€™s internals are telling him something, or he really does have money to burn.

By: Ed

Ed — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 21:11:06 +0000

Here’s my prediction: ExiledIndependent is going to be very disappointed on November 5th when his transparent rewording of the “Bradley Effect” doesn’t come true. Even so, the lame “empty suit” argument vs. Obama would have worked much better if McCain could himself pass the commander-in-chief test. No rational person looks at McCain and sees a temperament suited for the White House, nor do they see someone with the intelligence or aptitude to run the country.

By: Terra

Terra — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 21:10:52 +0000

Wow… and wow…

Well as a person that traditionally didn’t vote, I can say at least one of those non voters is showing up this year to vote for Obama…

By: Rich Horton

Rich Horton — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 20:42:13 +0000

Hey if you dont like Dick's you can always use mine.

By: ExiledIndependent

ExiledIndependent — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 20:28:19 +0000

Prediction made here first–Obama’s votes on election day will be 7-10% lower than what polls are tracking. People are afraid of saying that the Emperor has no clothes, and a private voting booth is a powerful thing. Additionally, Obama is making a risky bet that traditionally low-turnout demographics like the youth vote will match action with intent and actually make it to the polling station.