Electoral Map Becoming Impossible For McCain
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls
I created this map over at Real Clear Politics, and I think what it shows are the states that will go for McCain, the states that will go for Obama and the states that are true toss-ups.
My measure of this was if a state had aggregate polling that was +5% in a candidate’s favor, it went to that candidate. If not, it was deemed a tossup.
Here are the aggregate numbers…
Obviously, you can see the problem here. Obama is already well over the 270 threshold in states where he leads by more than 5 points, so McCain has to try and somehow swing Colorado or Virginia back to his column.
Then add on the massive hurdle of holding ALL of the toss up states and we’re quickly seeing a hill that’s nearly impossible to climb.
By the way, since North Dakota is actually only +4% for McCain, I could have added it to the toss up states, but I’m just going to give it to him for the time being because there hasn’t been a lot of polling done in the state. But as I mentioned in a previous post, just the fact that North Dakota is a topic of discussion means big problems for Republicans.
This is why I keep characterizing this race as pretty much over. Because with the October surprise landing today, this race could start to break big for Obama over the next 16 days.
More as it develops…
This entry was posted on Sunday, October 19th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
October 19th, 2008 at 11:41 am
If McCain wants any chance of winning, he needs to be campaigning in North Carolina, Virginia and Florida almost exclusively, and run heavy ads out west in New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado.
But he’s spending more time this week in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire than any of those states. Good luck with that, John.
October 19th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
you show Obama with 286, then say
CO: 9 Virginia: 13; Doesn’t he need to swing BOTH?
October 19th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
I wonder if this will be a short election night. By 9 ET we may be left just discussing close senate races. But polls are just polls. Nothing counts until the votes are cast. It’s possible that this “Obama is a shoo-in” talk will slow down turnout, especially among younger voters who tend to be the most apathetic group. Still, I’m not putting any money on McCain.
October 19th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
Alan:
Won’t it also slow down turnout for the GOP voters as well?
When considering the media’s desire to keep this a horserace + Obama’s simply amazing GOTV effort I don’t see a low turnout happening.
October 19th, 2008 at 7:19 pm
Erik — yeah, that’s probably true. I’m just guessing that the Republican base is more reliable than the youth portion of Obama’s base.
October 19th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
As part of the youth portion of Obama’s base, I think you couldn’t be wronger.
October 19th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Youth voter here, i’ve already cast my ballot in Ohio
October 20th, 2008 at 6:23 am
Alan, as a youth voter I can say that before Bush, you’d be right. But after two foreign wars, an economic meltdown that may make getting any kind of credit for college impossible, and a ceaseless re-fighting of Vietnam every quadrennially- well, a lot of people my age are realizing we can’t fool around anymore.
October 20th, 2008 at 7:02 am
While I’m not at all surprised that you guys are voting, I hope you’re right about the others in your demo. I remember in 1992 there was supposed to be a huge youth turnout for Clinton. I voted, of course, but the overall percentage of youth voters was not much different than in the previous election. Then again, us Gen Xers have always been an apathetic lot.