Comments on: Insider Advantage: Obama Up By 1 In Georgia http://donklephant.com/2008/10/24/insider-advantage-obama-up-by-1-in-georgia/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Tue, 14 Feb 2012 14:03:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Donklephant » Blog Archive » Georgia: McCain Leads By 6 http://donklephant.com/2008/10/24/insider-advantage-obama-up-by-1-in-georgia/comment-page-1/#comment-421344 Donklephant » Blog Archive » Georgia: McCain Leads By 6 Mon, 27 Oct 2008 04:46:33 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=9654#comment-421344 [...] And with early voting seemingly favoring Dems, McCain has a fight on his hands that he most likely never anticipated. In fact, a recent poll showed Obama with a 1 point advantage. [...] [...] And with early voting seemingly favoring Dems, McCain has a fight on his hands that he most likely never anticipated. In fact, a recent poll showed Obama with a 1 point advantage. [...]

]]> By: Donklephant » Blog Archive » Quote Of The Day http://donklephant.com/2008/10/24/insider-advantage-obama-up-by-1-in-georgia/comment-page-1/#comment-421216 Donklephant » Blog Archive » Quote Of The Day Sat, 25 Oct 2008 11:00:48 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=9654#comment-421216 [...] more, at least one recent poll has shown Obama up by [...] [...] more, at least one recent poll has shown Obama up by [...]

]]> By: kranky kritter http://donklephant.com/2008/10/24/insider-advantage-obama-up-by-1-in-georgia/comment-page-1/#comment-421130 kranky kritter Fri, 24 Oct 2008 16:11:15 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=9654#comment-421130 On Alan's scale, it's pretty hard for a Presidential election outcome to reach "rout" territory if he's talking about percent disparity in popular vote. It would be shocking to see anyone get 55 or 60% of the popular vote, for example. But electorally speaking, make no mistake. If Obama wins Georgia, it'll be a rout. Then we'd certainly be talking about Obama getting in the neighborhood of 400 EV, which is demonstrably an ass-kicking. At this point, I'm inclined to view this as an outlier. Late tightening makes more sense based on the trends I've seen. I still expect Obama to win with a 320-350 EV count. But it's also possible that it trends to a late landslide because people like to back a winner, be on the side of history, etc. On Alan’s scale, it’s pretty hard for a Presidential election outcome to reach “rout” territory if he’s talking about percent disparity in popular vote. It would be shocking to see anyone get 55 or 60% of the popular vote, for example.

But electorally speaking, make no mistake. If Obama wins Georgia, it’ll be a rout. Then we’d certainly be talking about Obama getting in the neighborhood of 400 EV, which is demonstrably an ass-kicking.

At this point, I’m inclined to view this as an outlier. Late tightening makes more sense based on the trends I’ve seen. I still expect Obama to win with a 320-350 EV count.

But it’s also possible that it trends to a late landslide because people like to back a winner, be on the side of history, etc.

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