Strategic Vision: McCain Ahead In Ohio, Florida; Obama Ahead In Pennsylvania

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Florida, McCain, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Polls

Some good news for McCain today, but considering he has pulled out of Colorado in favor of Pennsylvania, this poll also surfaces some cold, hard truths about his chances to win.

Ohio: McCain +3
McCain 48%
Obama 45%

Florida: McCain +2
McCain 48%
Obama 46%

Pennsylvania: Obama +7
Obama 50%
McCain 43%

While Obama has had a lot of great polling these past few days, Strategic Vision usually has decent numbers so these shouldn’t be discounted. However, my gut tells me that you should add 3 points to each of these polls. So Ohio would be tied, Obama would be ahead by 1 in Florida and he’d be up by 10 in Pennsylvania.

Is that the same sense you’d have?


This entry was posted on Friday, October 24th, 2008 and is filed under Barack, Florida, McCain, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

8 Responses to “Strategic Vision: McCain Ahead In Ohio, Florida; Obama Ahead In Pennsylvania”

  1. thekansascitian Says:

    McCain has been in Colorado all day. He even picked up endorsements from John Elway and John Lynch.

    I think saying he’s pulled out of CO is a bit of a stretch. The did cut spending on television ads, but Obama did the same in MO. Are you saying Obama is pulling out of Missouri?

  2. WillNeverGiveUp Says:

    Obama will lose the election if the public sees these three videos on:

    http://willnevergiveup.wordpress.com

    Luckily, the press is on his side and few Americans are aware these videos exist and consider the issues in the videos and other “rumours” to be urban myths perpetuated by anti-Obamanites.

  3. max Says:

    This is OVER, if Stategic Vision decides to call the family in GA and make a name for themselves….sounds like that woman in Pittsburg who will fake an assault attack to make the democrats look bad

  4. Avinash_Tyagi Says:

    considering Obama is leading in those states in most other polls i’d call this one an outlier, oh look strategic vision is a republican pollster, yup i’m not surprised.

    Also McCain has his own problems, that racist chick who scratched a B in her face has been caught

  5. Jasmine Says:

    I have no sense for polling numbers at the moment, if I ever had the sense at all! Part of the reason why I read Donklephant in the first place.

  6. kranky kritter Says:

    FL and Oh have been within 2 or 3 points in most polls either way for several months. A sensible person looks at this data and thinks that the outcome will depend on who actually decides to show up and vote, and that the outcome will be pretty close.

    If you’re sensible, you value polls only as brute measures, ballpark estimates. In other words, close is close. So unless you’re eager to put down $100 on Obama or McCain to win in OH or FL, then you know what your honest perception is: too close to call.

    Hey, Will, will you give up after McCain loses? ROTFL! I am pretty sure the evil socialists plan to send their paramilitary trainees out after you as soon as the election is won. Hopefully you’re all stocked up on canned goods.

  7. Joshua Says:

    As I mentioned in a comment the other day, I’ve given up on following the polls – they’re all over the map.

    That said, I find it nothing short of remarkable that McCain is still within striking distance of Obama at all. (And this is coming from a McCain voter!) Between Obama’s galvanizing presence, his well-run and lavishly financed campaign, McCain’s seemingly half-hearted and uncoordinated campaign, across-the-board dissatisfaction with our free-spending, ham-handed, lame duck Republican incumbent, and the financial crisis on top of all that, you’d think Obama would have a 20+ point lead over McCain by now, and be en route to a 1984-style near-sweep of the Electoral College. The mere fact that McCain’s still quite competitive at this late date, in spite of all that should have buried his campaign long ago, should have Obama at least a little worried.

  8. mw Says:

    “…my gut tells me that you should add 3 points to each of these polls. So Ohio would be tied, Obama would be ahead by 1 in Florida and he’d be up by 10 in Pennsylvania.” – JG

    My gut tells me you should add 41.7 points to each of these polls. So Obama is up by 38.7 in Ohio, 39.7 in Florida, and he’d be up by 48.7 in Pennsylvania.

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