Comments on: AP Poll: Obama Leads In 8 Swing States http://donklephant.com/2008/10/29/ap-poll-obama-leads-in-8-swing-states/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Mon, 23 Nov 2009 03:05:09 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: kranky kritter http://donklephant.com/2008/10/29/ap-poll-obama-leads-in-8-swing-states/comment-page-1/#comment-422033 kranky kritter Thu, 30 Oct 2008 14:37:28 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=9961#comment-422033 C'mon Justin, show some sack for gosh's sake. You've been reporting daily polls like gospel for MONTHS, and now you are going to bail on them because you feel all nervous Nelly? Poof! What you gave us isn't a prediction. It's simply a reassurance based on conceding all the semi-close states, which Obama doesn't even need to win. I called for a late closing because it usually happens as people have 2nd thoughts. Wedding eve jitters. That's what we are seeing now, amplified by late and desperate negativity. The question is whetehr this trend has legs. I don't think it does. McCain lacks support for his affirmative case. No one besides McCain himself is making it. The best bellwether IMO is the feel of capitulation among cpnservatives on blogs, as well as the vociferous anti-Obama tone at places like Instapundit, coupled with a lack of pro-McCain accompaniment. It's ALL ALL ALL about Obama, and to me that means not nearly enough people are buying McCain on his own merits. Coupled with the fact that Mcain is showing way too much weakness in places where he MUST be a no-brainer in order to win nationally, I think that we get one of two results: • Obama holds on in half or most of the states where he has a small lead. He might lose FL and IN, but he'll carry OH, CO, and VA. • People dismiss their doubts, some undecided folks vote with the crowd to back a winner and be on the side of history, and Obama ends up around 400 EV. C’mon Justin, show some sack for gosh’s sake. You’ve been reporting daily polls like gospel for MONTHS, and now you are going to bail on them because you feel all nervous Nelly? Poof!

What you gave us isn’t a prediction. It’s simply a reassurance based on conceding all the semi-close states, which Obama doesn’t even need to win.

I called for a late closing because it usually happens as people have 2nd thoughts. Wedding eve jitters. That’s what we are seeing now, amplified by late and desperate negativity.

The question is whetehr this trend has legs. I don’t think it does. McCain lacks support for his affirmative case. No one besides McCain himself is making it. The best bellwether IMO is the feel of capitulation among cpnservatives on blogs, as well as the vociferous anti-Obama tone at places like Instapundit, coupled with a lack of pro-McCain accompaniment. It’s ALL ALL ALL about Obama, and to me that means not nearly enough people are buying McCain on his own merits. Coupled with the fact that Mcain is showing way too much weakness in places where he MUST be a no-brainer in order to win nationally, I think that we get one of two results:

• Obama holds on in half or most of the states where he has a small lead. He might lose FL and IN, but he’ll carry OH, CO, and VA.

• People dismiss their doubts, some undecided folks vote with the crowd to back a winner and be on the side of history, and Obama ends up around 400 EV.

]]> By: Rich Horton http://donklephant.com/2008/10/29/ap-poll-obama-leads-in-8-swing-states/comment-page-1/#comment-421956 Rich Horton Thu, 30 Oct 2008 04:03:57 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=9961#comment-421956 Well...it will be an objective measure no matter what. lol I'll have my last set of projections up on Friday afternoon. And yes, when it comes to training, its the Political Science department of the University of Illinois vs. Baseball Prospectus. Should be fun. Well…it will be an objective measure no matter what. lol

I’ll have my last set of projections up on Friday afternoon.

And yes, when it comes to training, its the Political Science department of the University of Illinois vs. Baseball Prospectus.

Should be fun.

]]> By: Jim S http://donklephant.com/2008/10/29/ap-poll-obama-leads-in-8-swing-states/comment-page-1/#comment-421908 Jim S Thu, 30 Oct 2008 02:19:34 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=9961#comment-421908 Nate Silver vs. Rich Horton. I think I'll take Nate in that contest. Nate Silver vs. Rich Horton. I think I’ll take Nate in that contest.

]]> By: Rich Horton http://donklephant.com/2008/10/29/ap-poll-obama-leads-in-8-swing-states/comment-page-1/#comment-421870 Rich Horton Wed, 29 Oct 2008 22:21:46 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=9961#comment-421870 So says that guy. I've <a href="http://iconicmidwest.blogspot.com/2008/10/not-so-bold-prediction.html" rel="nofollow">already stated</a> that I think my own predictions will bury his. I'll looked at his work and it strikes me as incredibly shoddy. I cant help it if the guy cant count. For example, Rasmussen, Gallup, and Zogby all use two day windows for their tracking. State polls, take Florida for example, will use windows of up to five days. Thus if there is movement they will still not be taking that fully into account. So it has nothing to do with when the poll numbers are released (as he bizarrely contends), it has to do with differences in methodology. So says that guy. I’ve already stated that I think my own predictions will bury his. I’ll looked at his work and it strikes me as incredibly shoddy.

I cant help it if the guy cant count. For example, Rasmussen, Gallup, and Zogby all use two day windows for their tracking.

State polls, take Florida for example, will use windows of up to five days. Thus if there is movement they will still not be taking that fully into account. So it has nothing to do with when the poll numbers are released (as he bizarrely contends), it has to do with differences in methodology.

]]> By: Below The Beltway » Blog Archive » Swing State Update: Good News For Obama, Bad News For McCain http://donklephant.com/2008/10/29/ap-poll-obama-leads-in-8-swing-states/comment-page-1/#comment-421859 Below The Beltway » Blog Archive » Swing State Update: Good News For Obama, Bad News For McCain Wed, 29 Oct 2008 21:57:50 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=9961#comment-421859 [...] a new Associated Press poll shows Barack Obama ahead by varying margins in eight battleground states: Colorado: Obama +9 Obama: 50% McCain: [...] [...] a new Associated Press poll shows Barack Obama ahead by varying margins in eight battleground states: Colorado: Obama +9 Obama: 50% McCain: [...]

]]> By: Doug Mataconis http://donklephant.com/2008/10/29/ap-poll-obama-leads-in-8-swing-states/comment-page-1/#comment-421852 Doug Mataconis Wed, 29 Oct 2008 21:19:33 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=9961#comment-421852 Rich, The so-called state poll lag effect is a myth: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/myth-of-lag.html Rich,

The so-called state poll lag effect is a myth:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/myth-of-lag.html

]]> By: Rich Horton http://donklephant.com/2008/10/29/ap-poll-obama-leads-in-8-swing-states/comment-page-1/#comment-421844 Rich Horton Wed, 29 Oct 2008 20:21:27 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=9961#comment-421844 For what its worth, state polls generally lag the national polls. *If* things are genuinely tightening, you probably wont see all of the movement until the last minute. "Any state where there’s a margin of 5 or less, he’ll lose." Wow...even I would limit that to three or less. For what its worth, state polls generally lag the national polls. *If* things are genuinely tightening, you probably wont see all of the movement until the last minute.

“Any state where there’s a margin of 5 or less, he’ll lose.”

Wow…even I would limit that to three or less.

]]> By: pico http://donklephant.com/2008/10/29/ap-poll-obama-leads-in-8-swing-states/comment-page-1/#comment-421842 pico Wed, 29 Oct 2008 20:07:23 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=9961#comment-421842 I do think undecideds will break heavily for McCain, but I also think a huge increase in African American turnout and a modest increase in youth turnout may help to counterbalance this to some degree. Florida is one of the few states that's trending McCain, and I doubt Obama's 2 point lead will hold. Also, even though McCain's numbers have taken a nosedive in Ohio recently I have a hard time believing Obama will take it. I'm inclined to believe he'll take the rest though, including North Carolina, again due to increased African American turnout which has already materialized with the early vote. I do think undecideds will break heavily for McCain, but I also think a huge increase in African American turnout and a modest increase in youth turnout may help to counterbalance this to some degree. Florida is one of the few states that’s trending McCain, and I doubt Obama’s 2 point lead will hold. Also, even though McCain’s numbers have taken a nosedive in Ohio recently I have a hard time believing Obama will take it. I’m inclined to believe he’ll take the rest though, including North Carolina, again due to increased African American turnout which has already materialized with the early vote.

]]> By: Avinash_Tyagi http://donklephant.com/2008/10/29/ap-poll-obama-leads-in-8-swing-states/comment-page-1/#comment-421839 Avinash_Tyagi Wed, 29 Oct 2008 19:54:36 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=9961#comment-421839 I disagree, until we know the effect of early/absentee voting, black youth turnout, cellphone only voters, etc. At this point I hesitate to call any of these states one way or the other, six days is an eternity, anything can happen in this environment I disagree, until we know the effect of early/absentee voting, black youth turnout, cellphone only voters, etc.

At this point I hesitate to call any of these states one way or the other, six days is an eternity, anything can happen in this environment

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