Comments on: Not Quite Over http://donklephant.com/2008/10/31/not-quite-over/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Sat, 20 Mar 2010 03:50:51 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9 hourly 1 By: bunny fufu http://donklephant.com/2008/10/31/not-quite-over/comment-page-1/#comment-422224 bunny fufu Fri, 31 Oct 2008 17:51:24 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=10062#comment-422224 One in seven? Nationally, sure, that might be a reasonable number. But the article is quoting numbers from a national poll. The personal stories of undecidedness from the article come from California, New York (2), New Jersey and Missouri. So the only vote to probably make a difference in the election is that singular vote from Missouri. It would be much more useful to see what the undecided population looks like in the battleground states. Or weight the undecided population based on how much money the campaigns are spending in that particular state. Not to gush over Nate Silver, but this is one reason his model stresses state polling over national polling. One in seven? Nationally, sure, that might be a reasonable number. But the article is quoting numbers from a national poll. The personal stories of undecidedness from the article come from California, New York (2), New Jersey and Missouri. So the only vote to probably make a difference in the election is that singular vote from Missouri. It would be much more useful to see what the undecided population looks like in the battleground states. Or weight the undecided population based on how much money the campaigns are spending in that particular state.

Not to gush over Nate Silver, but this is one reason his model stresses state polling over national polling.

]]> By: mike mcEachran http://donklephant.com/2008/10/31/not-quite-over/comment-page-1/#comment-422223 mike mcEachran Fri, 31 Oct 2008 17:42:49 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=10062#comment-422223 I don't know. McCain's introduced a game changer...he's promising to make Joe the Plumber part of his administration. If this doesn't win him the election, nothing will... I don’t know. McCain’s introduced a game changer…he’s promising to make Joe the Plumber part of his administration. If this doesn’t win him the election, nothing will…

]]> By: Avinash_Tyagi http://donklephant.com/2008/10/31/not-quite-over/comment-page-1/#comment-422215 Avinash_Tyagi Fri, 31 Oct 2008 15:37:38 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=10062#comment-422215 Nah, once he won that greatest of Bellweathers, the Alan Stewart Carl vote I knew it was in the bag, lol :P Nah, once he won that greatest of Bellweathers, the Alan Stewart Carl vote I knew it was in the bag, lol :P

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