Comments on: Charlie Cook Talks Electoral Predictions

By: Donklephant » Blog Archive » CBS/NY Times: Obama Has 19 Point Lead With Early Voters

Sun, 02 Nov 2008 14:50:34 +0000

[...] McCain still turn it around? Well, I’m with Charlie Cook on this [...]

By: Avinash_Tyagi

Avinash_Tyagi — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 06:47:33 +0000

Depends on which way, off as in understating Obama’s support (more likely considering early turnout) or off as in overstating his support, if the former than Obama goes from winning decisively, around 350 EVs, to probably carrying over 450 EVs, other way around, it becomes a nail biter that probably comes down to the wire in one state, the reason is, Obama has a firewall of states that are trending more than 5% in his direction, so even a five point shift in favor of McCain wouldn’t assure McCain of victory, it would only give him a chance, however early turnout and enthusiasm is firmly on Obama’s side, so it doesn’t seem very likely

By: ExiledIndependent

ExiledIndependent — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 05:44:37 +0000

If the polls are off by 5% (and how accurate were they during the primaries this election season? Not very), what does that do to the numbers?

By: Chris

Chris — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 04:36:48 +0000

Something caught my eye in that video, it showed WI being red in 2004. I’m fairly sure it wasn’t. yeah just checked, Kerry won WI in 2004. weird.