Comments on: Pollster.com’s Trend Estimates http://donklephant.com/2008/11/02/pollstercoms-trend-estimates/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Sun, 22 Nov 2009 05:46:37 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Avinash_Tyagi http://donklephant.com/2008/11/02/pollstercoms-trend-estimates/comment-page-1/#comment-422450 Avinash_Tyagi Sun, 02 Nov 2008 18:01:38 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=10180#comment-422450 I think you're overselling McCain's chances, since it would take nearly 100% undecideds , especially in Ohio, for McCain to break past Obama, that is extremely unlikely, its possible, but it would be a first, undecideds will likely break 3 to 2 in favor of McCain, at most 2 to 1, and once you factor in third party voters, cellphone only voters and increased turnout i'd say that Obama gets most of those states, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina are very likely Obama, Montana and Georgia will be likely McCain, unless GOTV really sends a lot to the polls, and the others are coin flips. I think you're overselling some hidden Bradley effect, when in fact most elections have undecided voters right up to the end, and they don't break for one person entirely, usually they break more in favor of one, but not overwhelmingly so I think you’re overselling McCain’s chances, since it would take nearly 100% undecideds , especially in Ohio, for McCain to break past Obama, that is extremely unlikely, its possible, but it would be a first, undecideds will likely break 3 to 2 in favor of McCain, at most 2 to 1, and once you factor in third party voters, cellphone only voters and increased turnout i’d say that Obama gets most of those states, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina are very likely Obama, Montana and Georgia will be likely McCain, unless GOTV really sends a lot to the polls, and the others are coin flips.

I think you’re overselling some hidden Bradley effect, when in fact most elections have undecided voters right up to the end, and they don’t break for one person entirely, usually they break more in favor of one, but not overwhelmingly so

]]> By: Trescml http://donklephant.com/2008/11/02/pollstercoms-trend-estimates/comment-page-1/#comment-422449 Trescml Sun, 02 Nov 2008 17:21:19 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=10180#comment-422449 Obama will win a couple of the toss-ups but will lose Ohio. He will still win enough EVs to win. Obama will win a couple of the toss-ups but will lose Ohio. He will still win enough EVs to win.

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