Election Prediction: Obama 367 McCain 171

By Doug Mataconis | Related entries in Barack, Democrats, McCain, Republicans

Presidential Election

Electoral College:

Final EV Prediction

Popular Vote:

  1. Barack Obama — 52%
  2. John McCain — 45%
  3. Bob Barr —- 1% (first Libertarian Party candidate to receive over 1,000,000 popular votes)
  4. Ralph Nader — 1%
  5. Other candidates — 1 %

United States Senate:

56 Democrats
41 Republicans
2 Independents

Democrats will pick up Senate seats in Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, North Carolina, Alaska, and Oregon. The race in Minnesota will be tight, and because it’s a three-way race, Al Franken could pull out a win if Democratic turnout is high enough, but, in the end, I think Norm Coleman will win by the skin of his teeth and be one of the few Republican bright spots of the night.

You will notice that the numbers above don’t add up to 100.

That’s because there will be one Senate race that remain unresolved on November 5th. The Senate race in Georgia will need to be decided by a runoff between Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin sometime in December because neither candidate will get the 50% of the vote needed to win, thanks to a surprisingly strong showing by the Libertarian Party’s candidate Allen Buckley.

This is a replay of what happened in 1992 when Paul Coverdale had to face Wyche Fowler in a runoff when Jim Hudson, the Libertarian Party candidate that year, garnered 3% of the vote and prevented both candidates from gaining a majority. In `92, most of Hudson’s voters ended up supporting the Republican candidate in the runoff. Will that happen again in 2008, or will they turn against the incumbent ?

United States House Of Representatives

Democrats — 260 seats
Republicans — 174 seats

A net gain of twenty-five seats for the Democrats, including a pickup of retiring Republican Tom Davis’s seat in Virginia’s 11th Congressional District.

Miscellaneous

  1. Proposition 8 will fail in California, by a narrower margin than Obama’s victory there, but by a sufficiently large margin to make people start to wonder if the battle over gay marriage has taken a new turn.
  2. Obama will be declared the victor at 10:15pm EST.
  3. Voter turnout, as measured by percentage of the voting age population that actually casts a ballot, will exceed the post 26th Amendment record of 55.21% set in 1972.
  4. While McCain will win in South Carolina and Mississippi, his margin of victory will be smaller than polls are currently showing thanks to massive African-American turnout.


This entry was posted on Monday, November 3rd, 2008 and is filed under Barack, Democrats, McCain, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

2 Responses to “Election Prediction: Obama 367 McCain 171”

  1. Alan Stewart Carl Says:

    We predicted the exact same electoral college numbers. Did you crib from my post? ;-)

  2. Minnesota Central Says:

    Although I am still concerned with the rules of the Senate that allow for Holds and Filibusters, I believe the next Senate will be more bi-partisan. The 2008 elections put a number of Senators, like Norm Coleman, in a position of trying to work with the Democrats and the 2010 class looks like the Republicans will be in a similar position. Of the seats up for election, 19 are held by Republicans and 15 by Democrats. Of the Democrat seats, none may be lost while Arizona (McCain), Iowa (Grassley), Kentucky (Bunning), Louisiana (Vitter), and Ohio (Voinovich) could have challenges. Of those, McCain, Grassley and Voinovich are most likely to join Maine’s Senators Collins and Snowe on select issues (job creation, climate change, etc.)

    In Minnesota, I have the same feeling as when Jesse Ventura “shocked the world”. You could see it before Election Day … and Minnesotans didn’t look at Ventura as some faux-candidate … he was a former Mayor in a Twin Cities suburb and destroyed Norm Coleman in the debates (the Democrat in the 3-headed contested was Coleman’s old boss in the MN-AttyGeneral’s office named Hubert Humphrey – yep, the son of the LBJ’s VP).
    This time, it’s Al Franken who the media describes him as the “former SNL comedian”, yet he has not had one comedic commercial … he’s talked issues … and sparred effectively with Coleman in the debates … clearly winning the most recent.]
    The RNC has been trashing Franken all year and it has painted him as “explosive, angry, porn-author and a tax cheat” but since they are still throwing the same commercials, it may have exhausted itself. The unions and Planned Parenthood are strongly backing Franken.
    IF Franken can get votes in the Iron Range which historically has been a strong Democratic area, he will win ….
    IF Franken doesn’t win, he can look back as a personal success since he stuck to the issues.
    BTW, I have not been a supporter of Franken and felt the Democrats had other candidates that were more qualified …. And up until last week had planned to vote for the Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley.

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