Prognostications
By mw | Related entries in 2008 Election, Polls
I have learned quite a bit from my interaction with Obama supporters this year. I have learned that facts are not as important as rhetoric. That a voting record is less important than temperament. That smooth and cool is more important than experience.That how you feel is more important than what you think. That historical fact is trumped by transcendental change. Finally the most important thing I have learned, is that hope triumphs over reason.
For my predictions, I have decided to put my education into practice. I have decided to forgo any actual analysis, logic, reason, polls or history. Instead I will base my predictions strictly on what MW Hopesâ„¢ will happen.
First, MW Hopesâ„¢ the ASC longshot scenario plays out, McCain wins, and we have divided government for the next four years.
MW Hopesâ„¢ the final Electoral Result will be:
McCain 272 Obama 266
(This is one different than the map, as MW Hopesâ„¢ Obama takes Omaha, Nebraska)
For the rest, MW Hopesâ„¢…
Popular Vote
Obama: 50%
McCain: 49%
All Others: 1%
House Results
Democrats: 259
Republicans: 176
Senate Results
Democrats: 58
Republicans: 41
Independents: 1
When Will the Election Be Called?
November 19, 2008 (My wife’s birthday)
Surprise of the Night?
You’ve got to be kidding.
Yes. I am drinking tonight. Laphroiag single malt. Cask strength. Neat.
This entry was posted on Monday, November 3rd, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:42 pm
You are silly, and if McCain wins he would be an inept old president, replaced by a mindless Sarah Palin after 2 years when he dies in office. There’s my future prediction.
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:49 pm
I LOVE that photo. Awesome.
And if Obama doesn’t win tomorrow, well, at least one of us predicted it.
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:58 pm
really? mccain/palin is a better choice than obama/biden?
lets do a quick review of their economic teams, in basketball terms.
Team Obama
warren buffett = michael jordan
paul volcker = kareem abdul jabbar
larry summers = kobe bryant
robert rubin = tim duncan
Team Mccain
carly fiorina = stephon marbury
phil gramm = ben wallace
meg whitman = jj reddick in the nba
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:02 pm
It’s a strange mindset that would lead someone to choose a corrupt and demonstrably inept leader, plus run the risk or Palin as president (Decider 2.0) out of some narrowminded commitment to a Republican brand that has wrought needless death and destruction around the world and left the once strong US economy in tatters. All the while, John McCain proudly proclaimed he was for more of the same old song and dance (until weeks before the inconvenient economic meltdown which poured cold water on that idea). Serious conservatives could not support McCain/Palin as a real option for president/VP. Only committed Republicans could hold their nose and make their mark on the ballot for that embarrassment of a ticket. Too bad, there was a time when the Republican party had a real contribution to make. Now, not so much.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Of course, as a conservative christian and NRA member I support a party which is pro first and second amendment. A party which represents the christian right and the hard working middleclass. Unfortunately I am not eligable to vote in this election because I am not a US citizen.
God’s choice in this election is clear. McCain-Palin is the only choice for the god and law abiding voter.
together we will win!
creator79
NRA, GOA, Republicans abroad
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:28 pm
What fact, voting record, experience, and thought are you speaking of? Because it can’t possibly be John McCain’s. To begin with, how is this John McCain the same one as the 2000 McCain? How is pandering to the religious right at all that “maverick” he’d been purported to be for most of his career? It calls into question how his record would reflect how he would be as president; pretty much negating his “experience.” His experience passing laws deemed unconstitutional by SCOTUS (twice for the McCain-Feingold)? How was his thought process in picking Sarah Palin and in suspending his campaign?
How about which candidate won’t reinterpret and bastardize the Constitution? Which team understands the difference between Church and State?
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:36 pm
mw — you have excellent taste in beverages
I foud myself offended at your dismissal of those of us who went with Obama — and then I realized that’s because I’m so insecure in my vote and so worried you’re right. Of course, if I’d gone the other way, I’d be filled with self-doubt every time one of the Donk’s many left-leaning readers zinged me for supporting McCain. I was doomed to fret about my vote no matter what.
I miss being a lockstep partisan. Everything was so much clearer then.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:49 pm
MW: Finally the most important thing I have learned, is that hope triumphs over reason.
…Seriously?
No, seriously?
Again, I’m a center-right republican, voting Obama.
But are you REALLY going to say those who vote Obama are believing in hope over reason?
Its one thing to disagree with policy, history, voting record, personality.
But essentially you’re saying those who vote for Obama are being duped. And dumb.
Please.
November 4th, 2008 at 12:10 am
Agreed with Erik Sickinger on this one. Just because you disagree with our reasoning, mw, doesn’t necessarily mean that it doesn’t exist.
On another note, I’ve never been a fan of Laphroaig. It’s a little too smoky for my tastes; while liquid bacon sounds like a great idea, in reality it’s not a pleasant taste.
November 4th, 2008 at 7:22 am
… kind of like voting for mccain?
bwhahahahaha. going out to vote right now!
November 4th, 2008 at 7:32 am
I have learned that conservatives can be as whiny as liberals when things don’t go their way.
November 4th, 2008 at 8:16 am
[...] there are some very surprising results, John McCain will end the night as he started the race: the senior senator from Arizona. He will [...]
November 4th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Here is a cool electoral map of the united states where 1 square=1 electoral vote.
November 4th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Thanks for the reminder, mw. Laphroiag it is tonight! A favorite in my house that will delight the wife. I won’t waste your time pointing out in detail why your resort to *facts* is no less a rationalization than my trust in my senses of sight, hearing, judgment and yes, *facts*. When minds are made up it’s time to toast. Salud!
Thanks to everyone here at donklephant. I look forward to your commentary in the ensuing days and months.
November 4th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
MW, I’m in for $100 (Do you have a limit? Can I bet more?)
November 4th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
@mm
You apparently have an even greater capacity for hope, fantasy and wishful thinking than me.
November 4th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
@erik – Yes – really.