The Final Electoral Predictions

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls

The numbers have tightened a bit, but Obama looks poised to capture the POTUS tomorrow in every single projection.

Real Clear Politics: Obama 338, McCain 200 Obama 353, McCain 185

FiveThirtyEight: Obama 340.2, McCain 197.8

Pollster: Obama 311, McCain 142, Tied 85

So then…

There’s really no good news for McCain in these maps and even some crazy last minute ploy will probably have no effect as voters’ minds are made up at this point. They’re voting for a candidate for a variety of reasons and there simply aren’t enough undecideds to swing this way back for McCain.

This entry was posted on Monday, November 3rd, 2008 and is filed under Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

4 Responses to “The Final Electoral Predictions”

  1. Rich Horton Says:

    Nitpick. FiveThirtyEight’s isn’t a “prediction” because it cannot come to be. That’s like me as a kid “predicting” that I would have 2.65 children as an adult. His last “Most Likely EV” is 311.

  2. Justin Gardner Says:

    Yeah, I actually think it’s either going to be 338 or 311.

    But that’s still plenty.

  3. susan Says:

    The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

    The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

    Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

    The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.


  4. John Says:

    In order to get rid of the electoral college you would need to amend the constitution. Now I think states can make up a little head way by forcing their electoral votes to be awarded by district not the whole numbers by the state.

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