Comments on: Indiana Goes For Obama. Missouri Goes For McCain. http://donklephant.com/2008/11/05/indiana-goes-for-obama-missouri-goes-for-mccain/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Tue, 14 Feb 2012 14:03:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Congratulations to Obama Field Office Staff and Volunteers | Porch Dog http://donklephant.com/2008/11/05/indiana-goes-for-obama-missouri-goes-for-mccain/comment-page-1/#comment-599256 Congratulations to Obama Field Office Staff and Volunteers | Porch Dog Mon, 11 Jan 2010 12:49:27 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=10633#comment-599256 [...] That’s where Masket’s research comes in. He found a statistically measurable difference in counties where Obama had a field office versus counties where he did not. I’m not the guy to critique his model or his research. Read it yourself at the third link above and decide on your own. However, he does note that this difference was significant enough to have won him three very hotly contested states: Florida, North Carolina, and Indiana. [...] [...] That’s where Masket’s research comes in. He found a statistically measurable difference in counties where Obama had a field office versus counties where he did not. I’m not the guy to critique his model or his research. Read it yourself at the third link above and decide on your own. However, he does note that this difference was significant enough to have won him three very hotly contested states: Florida, North Carolina, and Indiana. [...]

]]> By: Tim in Wisconsin http://donklephant.com/2008/11/05/indiana-goes-for-obama-missouri-goes-for-mccain/comment-page-1/#comment-423131 Tim in Wisconsin Wed, 05 Nov 2008 16:07:42 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=10633#comment-423131 The real problem with Indiana was no one bothered contesting it until now. There were a couple of factors coming together that made Indiana appear a lot less swingy than it really was. One is its late primary. No candidates ever bothered visiting the state during primary season because the nomination was wrapped up well before then. Another factor is the absurdly early poll closing time. Indiana showed up as a bright red spot on a blank map at 6:00:01 EST every election (back when networks would run with the exit polls as soon as possible), so it was ingrained in the minds of the electorate that Indiana was a deep red state. Indiana has shown signs that it was a flippable state for years, including numerous Democrat senators and governors. But no Democrat candidate for President would attempt to campaign in Indiana until now. What changed? One was the fact that Indiana's primary counted this year. Thanks to the drawn out nominating process for the nomination, the candidates actually had to visit and hold rallies in Indiana. Voter registration and excitement skyrocketed. Dormant Democrats actually got an opportunity to have a say in an election, and they took advantage of it. Even though Obama lost the Indiana primary, the fact that there were over a million people who voted as Democrats in the primary showed that there was a decently-sized base that was hungry to have an impact in the national election. The other big factor is the state's proximity to Illinois. The Obama campaign could easily send workers and volunteers to Indiana since they weren't needed in Illinois. The real problem with Indiana was no one bothered contesting it until now. There were a couple of factors coming together that made Indiana appear a lot less swingy than it really was. One is its late primary. No candidates ever bothered visiting the state during primary season because the nomination was wrapped up well before then. Another factor is the absurdly early poll closing time. Indiana showed up as a bright red spot on a blank map at 6:00:01 EST every election (back when networks would run with the exit polls as soon as possible), so it was ingrained in the minds of the electorate that Indiana was a deep red state.

Indiana has shown signs that it was a flippable state for years, including numerous Democrat senators and governors. But no Democrat candidate for President would attempt to campaign in Indiana until now.

What changed? One was the fact that Indiana’s primary counted this year. Thanks to the drawn out nominating process for the nomination, the candidates actually had to visit and hold rallies in Indiana. Voter registration and excitement skyrocketed. Dormant Democrats actually got an opportunity to have a say in an election, and they took advantage of it. Even though Obama lost the Indiana primary, the fact that there were over a million people who voted as Democrats in the primary showed that there was a decently-sized base that was hungry to have an impact in the national election. The other big factor is the state’s proximity to Illinois. The Obama campaign could easily send workers and volunteers to Indiana since they weren’t needed in Illinois.

]]> By: Jim S http://donklephant.com/2008/11/05/indiana-goes-for-obama-missouri-goes-for-mccain/comment-page-1/#comment-423125 Jim S Wed, 05 Nov 2008 15:56:48 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=10633#comment-423125 FiveThirtyEight still doesn't show Missouri as having been called. FiveThirtyEight still doesn’t show Missouri as having been called.

]]> By: Doug Mataconis http://donklephant.com/2008/11/05/indiana-goes-for-obama-missouri-goes-for-mccain/comment-page-1/#comment-423111 Doug Mataconis Wed, 05 Nov 2008 15:09:32 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=10633#comment-423111 Justin, McCain's victory margin was only a few thousand votes larger than Stevenson's in 1956, the last time this happened: http://tinyurl.com/6dcztl Justin,

McCain’s victory margin was only a few thousand votes larger than Stevenson’s in 1956, the last time this happened:

http://tinyurl.com/6dcztl

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