Evangelicals Turned Out Big, But Failed to Deliver
By Alan Stewart Carl | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, McCain, Religion
Dan Gilgoff at Politico writes that very little has changed in the evangelical political world:
Evangelicals are still much more concerned with so-called wedge issues than any other demographic group. A Barna Group poll found that 40 percent of evangelicals chose their presidential candidate based on his position on “moral issues,” compared with 9 percent of other voters.
And the movement’s leaders are still leading the conservative charge in the culture wars. Most of the 29 state constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage that have passed were organized by Focus on the Family, its state affiliates and other evangelical activists.
Perhaps most strikingly, the anticipated evangelical shift away from McCain never happened. Despite widespread predictions that many evangelicals would stay home or pull the lever for Obama, McCain managed to collect more white evangelical voters than George W. Bush four years ago.
Obama did get 5% more of the white evangelical vote than did John Kerry in 2004, but there was no great shift away from the Republican party and those voters are just as exclusively concerned with a few wedge issues today as they were four or eight years ago.
What’s interesting is that McCain received 1.5 million more evangelical votes than did George Bush in 2004. That voter block did not stay home. But neither was it able to deliver the election. That’s not good news for evangelical leaders who’ve staked their power and influence on their ability to deliver electoral victories for Republicans. Wedge issue are only useful if more people end up on your side of the wedge. The moment it goes the other way, your group becomes a lot more expendable.
Not that I think the Republicans will kick out the religious conservatives or stop kowtowing to that group’s demands. But the results of this year’s election do bring into question how long the Republicans can tie themselves so closely to one narrow ideology and still remain a viable political force. I wouldn’t shed a tear if the evangelical wing of the Republican party ceased holding sway, but I’m not going to hold my breath. It’ll take more than one or two failed elections before Republicans will believe their most devoted base can no longer deliver electoral success.
This entry was posted on Friday, November 21st, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, McCain, Religion. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
November 21st, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Like I said yesterday in another thread, check the Barna surveys and trends with younger evangelicals and born agains. If they maintain their tolerance toward homosexuality as they reach the age where they start voting (I’d love to see some numbers demonstrating if they vote in the same limited numbers as their non-evangelical peers) then wedge issues may be diminishing. I’m equally interested in their tolerance, or lack of, re abortion. It’s possible that in the next three election cycles that abortion maintains its position as an issue while anti-gay positions lose steam. All things considered a Pro Life stance is much more defensible to people my age (under 40) and younger than an anti-gay stance is.
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:33 am
The “evangelicals” held up their end in the GOP fusionist alliance between evangelicals and libertarians (Ryan Sager terminology). The GOP cannot win without them. The problem for the GOP in 2008 (and 2006) was the other half of the team - the libertarians, fiscal conservatives, and limited government advocates. They had no reason to vote for the GOP because they were betrayed by the GOP. Both the evangelicals and libertarians are necessary for GOP electoral success. But neither are sufficient.