Comments on: Worldwide Manufacturing Plummets http://donklephant.com/2009/01/03/worldwide-manufacturing-plummets/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Sun, 08 Nov 2009 23:59:03 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: J. Harden http://donklephant.com/2009/01/03/worldwide-manufacturing-plummets/comment-page-1/#comment-434471 J. Harden Sat, 03 Jan 2009 21:52:19 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=12487#comment-434471 Buy "ATK" Terrence, its a defense contractor that makes .223 bullets & artillery -- watching the Isrealis beat the shit out of Gaza on TV-- that's a US equity you can believe in. (Full disclosue: I'm way long on it.) Buy “ATK” Terrence, its a defense contractor that makes .223 bullets & artillery — watching the Isrealis beat the shit out of Gaza on TV– that’s a US equity you can believe in. (Full disclosue: I’m way long on it.)

]]> By: TerenceC http://donklephant.com/2009/01/03/worldwide-manufacturing-plummets/comment-page-1/#comment-434470 TerenceC Sat, 03 Jan 2009 21:39:05 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=12487#comment-434470 Those guys are the enemy - I've done well despite their help this past 12 months. If you have a long term view and will be buying anyway through payroll deductions - you'll accumulate huge positions at a relatively low cost average, and when things turn around (5,6,7,8, years on) the run up will be quick and overlooked by many. It's a GD fire sale out there right now. Mark to market works great for companies like GE, BofA, even GM - but difficult with small and middies for the exact capital reasons you mentioned. There is still business being done, and there are still companies growing - and most of them are not in the $2 billion plus a year column but much smaller. Of course there is risk with small and middies - but that is where the best payoff is when this thing turns around - and it will turn around. By the way I gave up crack a long time ago. Those guys are the enemy – I’ve done well despite their help this past 12 months. If you have a long term view and will be buying anyway through payroll deductions – you’ll accumulate huge positions at a relatively low cost average, and when things turn around (5,6,7,8, years on) the run up will be quick and overlooked by many. It’s a GD fire sale out there right now. Mark to market works great for companies like GE, BofA, even GM – but difficult with small and middies for the exact capital reasons you mentioned. There is still business being done, and there are still companies growing – and most of them are not in the $2 billion plus a year column but much smaller. Of course there is risk with small and middies – but that is where the best payoff is when this thing turns around – and it will turn around. By the way I gave up crack a long time ago.

]]> By: J. Harden http://donklephant.com/2009/01/03/worldwide-manufacturing-plummets/comment-page-1/#comment-434469 J. Harden Sat, 03 Jan 2009 20:43:25 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=12487#comment-434469 <blockquote>If you have a long term horizon (10-15 years plus) small and mid-cap US companies are the best buy</blockquote> Terence, put down the crack pipe. I wouldn't touch any "growth" stocks for the next 5 years - particularly small caps. If you're dedicated to idiocy, at least find a US equities with a divident yield of 5% or over. I agree ADR's aren't the best, that is why you should buy foreign equities directly if that is your thing. Again, find a broker with experience on/in developed foreign markets exchanges. I just don't understand -- how is it that gold hits "2000/oz" but small caps are where its at?? That makes no since to me. You're admitting a huge hedge against inflation and that isn't exactly congruent with highly-speculative small-cap equities which generally need lots of liquidity and access to healthy capital. The only way Terence you can assess the "fundamentals" is to mark asset values to the price of gold to establish relative value. If you do that we've seen a 40% in value since 2000. But hey, if you want to invest in US small caps, by all means, lets see if the capital markets follow your lead -- go get'em bull -- maybe you should start your own bank, but I don't think many FDIC regulators would appreciate the analysis above. Whatever, in 5 years tell me how it turned out for you. Btw, I do think that Obama & the Dems stimulus plan will pull things out for about 2-4 years, after that someone has to pay the band and that is the part of the story that no one to hear about.

If you have a long term horizon (10-15 years plus) small and mid-cap US companies are the best buy

Terence, put down the crack pipe. I wouldn’t touch any “growth” stocks for the next 5 years – particularly small caps. If you’re dedicated to idiocy, at least find a US equities with a divident yield of 5% or over.

I agree ADR’s aren’t the best, that is why you should buy foreign equities directly if that is your thing. Again, find a broker with experience on/in developed foreign markets exchanges. I just don’t understand — how is it that gold hits “2000/oz” but small caps are where its at?? That makes no since to me. You’re admitting a huge hedge against inflation and that isn’t exactly congruent with highly-speculative small-cap equities which generally need lots of liquidity and access to healthy capital.

The only way Terence you can assess the “fundamentals” is to mark asset values to the price of gold to establish relative value. If you do that we’ve seen a 40% in value since 2000. But hey, if you want to invest in US small caps, by all means, lets see if the capital markets follow your lead — go get’em bull — maybe you should start your own bank, but I don’t think many FDIC regulators would appreciate the analysis above.

Whatever, in 5 years tell me how it turned out for you. Btw, I do think that Obama & the Dems stimulus plan will pull things out for about 2-4 years, after that someone has to pay the band and that is the part of the story that no one to hear about.

]]> By: TerenceC http://donklephant.com/2009/01/03/worldwide-manufacturing-plummets/comment-page-1/#comment-434465 TerenceC Sat, 03 Jan 2009 19:23:56 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=12487#comment-434465 Gold - it will hit $2,000 per oz at some point in the not too distant future (2-4 years) - the ETF's are great - when it hits $2k short it and buy oil. I would avoid foreign equities at all costs right now - they are usually ADR's and you pay a handling charge on the back end - their currencies will go up as ours drops through the floor. If you have a long term horizon (10-15 years plus) small and mid-cap US companies are the best buy (and there are many excellent investment vehicles specializing in small and mid-cap's for your 401K money). Small and mid-cap stocks are cheap currently, their products are cheap to export (and getting cheaper), and more and more products will be manufactured here since it is politically important to keep these jobs as part of our domestic economy (expect favorable changes in trade laws as well as domestic tax subsidies for exporters). I haven't been this bullish on the US economy in a long time. As much as things suck (and they truly do) the fundamentals aren't bad. Where have I heard that before? Globally, I would hate to be India or China right now, their consumer to manufacturing economies are largely reliant on US and European customers for their high profit margins. They are subject to the devistating manufacturing cycles of boom and bust we used to see here - basically they work for us - not a bad spot to be in as the global economy melts down. Gold – it will hit $2,000 per oz at some point in the not too distant future (2-4 years) – the ETF’s are great – when it hits $2k short it and buy oil. I would avoid foreign equities at all costs right now – they are usually ADR’s and you pay a handling charge on the back end – their currencies will go up as ours drops through the floor. If you have a long term horizon (10-15 years plus) small and mid-cap US companies are the best buy (and there are many excellent investment vehicles specializing in small and mid-cap’s for your 401K money). Small and mid-cap stocks are cheap currently, their products are cheap to export (and getting cheaper), and more and more products will be manufactured here since it is politically important to keep these jobs as part of our domestic economy (expect favorable changes in trade laws as well as domestic tax subsidies for exporters). I haven’t been this bullish on the US economy in a long time. As much as things suck (and they truly do) the fundamentals aren’t bad. Where have I heard that before? Globally, I would hate to be India or China right now, their consumer to manufacturing economies are largely reliant on US and European customers for their high profit margins. They are subject to the devistating manufacturing cycles of boom and bust we used to see here – basically they work for us – not a bad spot to be in as the global economy melts down.

]]> By: B. Peanut http://donklephant.com/2009/01/03/worldwide-manufacturing-plummets/comment-page-1/#comment-434464 B. Peanut Sat, 03 Jan 2009 18:49:31 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=12487#comment-434464 <i>They’re worried about their jobs</i> They have no jobs. They’re worried about their jobs

They have no jobs.

]]> By: J. Harden http://donklephant.com/2009/01/03/worldwide-manufacturing-plummets/comment-page-1/#comment-434462 J. Harden Sat, 03 Jan 2009 17:27:01 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=12487#comment-434462 My take: 1) Short the dollar 2) Get out of US equities, if you haven't already 3) Forget about the bond market (don't let a 2-3 year artificial bubble fool you, this "stimulus" is really a long-term poision pill...we are entering a 10-15 bear market that is only elongated by the massive inflation potential of unconscionable fiat money production.) What should I do? 1) commodities, particularly precious metals (can do this through various vehicles, but I like ETFs/ETNs and check out the Perth Mint http://www.perthmint.com.au/investment.aspx 2) foreign equities (consult someone who knows what they are doing in that arena. Have fun tooting this 1 trillion stimilus package Justin, anyone with a brain and income should get the F*&^ out of the US to invest. Also read, Peter D. Schiff's "The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets". My take:

1) Short the dollar
2) Get out of US equities, if you haven’t already
3) Forget about the bond market
(don’t let a 2-3 year artificial bubble fool you, this “stimulus” is really a long-term poision pill…we are entering a 10-15 bear market that is only elongated by the massive inflation potential of unconscionable fiat money production.)

What should I do?

1) commodities, particularly precious metals (can do this through various vehicles, but I like ETFs/ETNs and check out the Perth Mint
http://www.perthmint.com.au/investment.aspx
2) foreign equities (consult someone who knows what they are doing in that arena.

Have fun tooting this 1 trillion stimilus package Justin, anyone with a brain and income should get the F*&^ out of the US to invest.

Also read, Peter D. Schiff’s “The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets”.

]]> By: TerenceC http://donklephant.com/2009/01/03/worldwide-manufacturing-plummets/comment-page-1/#comment-434458 TerenceC Sat, 03 Jan 2009 15:53:27 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=12487#comment-434458 John Maynard Keynes called it "The Paradox of Thrift". The basic premise is that if we do what's best for us financially on a personal level during tough economic times - then we create what is worse for us financially on a national/global level. Less consumer buying causes companies to shrink, people lose jobs, causing even less buying, companies shrink more.....etc., etc. John Maynard Keynes called it “The Paradox of Thrift”. The basic premise is that if we do what’s best for us financially on a personal level during tough economic times – then we create what is worse for us financially on a national/global level. Less consumer buying causes companies to shrink, people lose jobs, causing even less buying, companies shrink more…..etc., etc.

]]>