Afghanistan exists as an entity primarily due to the political machinations of various bickering nations, some or even many with imperial aspirations. I wish more folks would think long and hard about how unlikely it is that Afghanistan would ever have emerged as an entity on its own, due the shared aspirations of its populace.

As we speak, America and other nations are on the verge of adopting the foolish position of wanting a stable, democratic, unified Afghanistan more than the various factions who live there. So I hope we seriously limit our involvement and keep our goals and expectations low.

Sadly, once most Presidents toss some of their own chips into a pot, they have overwhelmingly strong subsequent impulses to double down regardless of what cards come on the flop. If Obama has any skill at poker, he’ll know that what matters is what’s in the pot, and that the goal is to win the game, not the hand. And that what the audience thinks of you is not that relevant.