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	<title>Comments on: Unemployment Hits 25-Year High</title>
	<atom:link href="http://donklephant.com/2009/03/06/unemployment-hits-25-year-high/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://donklephant.com/2009/03/06/unemployment-hits-25-year-high/</link>
	<description>Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable.</description>
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		<title>By: PAGO</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2009/03/06/unemployment-hits-25-year-high/comment-page-1/#comment-437400</link>
		<dc:creator>PAGO</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2009 03:17:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/?p=13875#comment-437400</guid>
		<description>Great point Jimmy. Flooding the country with dollars that have no backing is pretty damn clever, not to mention politically expedient. The consequences don&#039;t kick in till after you&#039;re gone, by which time everyone forgets that things like, say, &quot;trickle down&quot; economics, were a ruse of the highest order and it gives time for an entire political party to build a myth that you were a great president. Yes, Obama is certainly &quot;Reaganesque&quot;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Great point Jimmy. Flooding the country with dollars that have no backing is pretty damn clever, not to mention politically expedient. The consequences don&#8217;t kick in till after you&#8217;re gone, by which time everyone forgets that things like, say, &#8220;trickle down&#8221; economics, were a ruse of the highest order and it gives time for an entire political party to build a myth that you were a great president. Yes, Obama is certainly &#8220;Reaganesque&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: Jimmy the Dhimmi</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2009/03/06/unemployment-hits-25-year-high/comment-page-1/#comment-437344</link>
		<dc:creator>Jimmy the Dhimmi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 21:47:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/?p=13875#comment-437344</guid>
		<description>Don&#039;t worry everybody, Helicopter Ben is on the case.  We have unlimited money in this country.  Its called a printing press.  The Obama administration will be able to create new jobs from thin air, doing whatever, and we will pay everybody good salaries with printed money.  Heck, we could keep doing this and go down to 0% unemployment if we wanted!  Problem solved.  What could go wrong?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Don&#8217;t worry everybody, Helicopter Ben is on the case.  We have unlimited money in this country.  Its called a printing press.  The Obama administration will be able to create new jobs from thin air, doing whatever, and we will pay everybody good salaries with printed money.  Heck, we could keep doing this and go down to 0% unemployment if we wanted!  Problem solved.  What could go wrong?</p>
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		<title>By: Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2009/03/06/unemployment-hits-25-year-high/comment-page-1/#comment-437333</link>
		<dc:creator>Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:08:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/?p=13875#comment-437333</guid>
		<description>Because they&#039;re the ones in authority, with power to effect positive change.  Sure, Bush f*cked up all kinds of budgetary policy, but he&#039;s HISTORY, darling.  He&#039;s sitting in Crawford sipping a chilly Coors and forgetting the cares of the world.

&lt;em&gt;Will you focus exclusively on govâ€™t incompetence and ennabling, or will you have something to say about, lets face it, Wall St fraudulence?&lt;/em&gt;

Sure, all of it.  I&#039;d much rather stop the coming carnage than write a book about it 20 years from now.

Obama has the power to restore sane fiscal power, and if he does that, he&#039;ll be &#039;my guy&#039;, but I don&#039;t see ANY sign of that.

If this economy goes through the floor, it&#039;s all on his head.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Because they&#8217;re the ones in authority, with power to effect positive change.  Sure, Bush f*cked up all kinds of budgetary policy, but he&#8217;s HISTORY, darling.  He&#8217;s sitting in Crawford sipping a chilly Coors and forgetting the cares of the world.</p>
<p><em>Will you focus exclusively on govâ€™t incompetence and ennabling, or will you have something to say about, lets face it, Wall St fraudulence?</em></p>
<p>Sure, all of it.  I&#8217;d much rather stop the coming carnage than write a book about it 20 years from now.</p>
<p>Obama has the power to restore sane fiscal power, and if he does that, he&#8217;ll be &#8216;my guy&#8217;, but I don&#8217;t see ANY sign of that.</p>
<p>If this economy goes through the floor, it&#8217;s all on his head.</p>
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		<title>By: kranky kritter</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2009/03/06/unemployment-hits-25-year-high/comment-page-1/#comment-437331</link>
		<dc:creator>kranky kritter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 19:59:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/?p=13875#comment-437331</guid>
		<description>Snoop, Mike raises an interesting point. How come your posts focus exclusively on the faults of the folks who just took over. 

And maybe that&#039;s somewhat warranted if you are focused on the financial errors that might still somehow be preventable. But 20 years from now, will the tale you tell of the crash of the 2000&#039;s have a chapter on triple-A rated CDOs? Will you focus exclusively on gov&#039;t incompetence and ennabling, or will you have something to say about, lets face it, Wall St fraudulence?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Snoop, Mike raises an interesting point. How come your posts focus exclusively on the faults of the folks who just took over. </p>
<p>And maybe that&#8217;s somewhat warranted if you are focused on the financial errors that might still somehow be preventable. But 20 years from now, will the tale you tell of the crash of the 2000&#8242;s have a chapter on triple-A rated CDOs? Will you focus exclusively on gov&#8217;t incompetence and ennabling, or will you have something to say about, lets face it, Wall St fraudulence?</p>
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		<title>By: Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2009/03/06/unemployment-hits-25-year-high/comment-page-1/#comment-437325</link>
		<dc:creator>Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 19:22:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/?p=13875#comment-437325</guid>
		<description>October 2003 - President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
2006 - Became a member of the &#039;Group of Thirty&#039;
March 2008 - Arranged rescue of Bear Stearns and bail out AIG
2009 - Secretary of the Treasury

Yeah, he&#039;s not dirty with this &lt;em&gt;at all&lt;/em&gt;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>October 2003 &#8211; President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York<br />
2006 &#8211; Became a member of the &#8216;Group of Thirty&#8217;<br />
March 2008 &#8211; Arranged rescue of Bear Stearns and bail out AIG<br />
2009 &#8211; Secretary of the Treasury</p>
<p>Yeah, he&#8217;s not dirty with this <em>at all</em>.</p>
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		<title>By: michael reynolds</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2009/03/06/unemployment-hits-25-year-high/comment-page-1/#comment-437324</link>
		<dc:creator>michael reynolds</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 19:14:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/?p=13875#comment-437324</guid>
		<description>Snoop:

Yeah.  Geithner.  Because things were going just great til that asshole came along.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Snoop:</p>
<p>Yeah.  Geithner.  Because things were going just great til that asshole came along.</p>
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		<title>By: Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2009/03/06/unemployment-hits-25-year-high/comment-page-1/#comment-437322</link>
		<dc:creator>Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 19:03:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/?p=13875#comment-437322</guid>
		<description>Well, don&#039;t you fret, Big Mike.  I think Timmy Geithner has got you covered on &lt;em&gt;that&lt;/em&gt; one.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, don&#8217;t you fret, Big Mike.  I think Timmy Geithner has got you covered on <em>that</em> one.</p>
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		<title>By: michael reynolds</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2009/03/06/unemployment-hits-25-year-high/comment-page-1/#comment-437315</link>
		<dc:creator>michael reynolds</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 18:39:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/?p=13875#comment-437315</guid>
		<description>KK:

Actually, from the purely self-interested pov, I&#039;d like to see both housing prices and stocks come down a bit more.  Sold my last house, renting and sitting on cash here.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>KK:</p>
<p>Actually, from the purely self-interested pov, I&#8217;d like to see both housing prices and stocks come down a bit more.  Sold my last house, renting and sitting on cash here.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2009/03/06/unemployment-hits-25-year-high/comment-page-1/#comment-437307</link>
		<dc:creator>Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 17:46:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/?p=13875#comment-437307</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;I would not be surprised if it went as high as 12...&lt;/em&gt;

And if it does I won&#039;t hold you to it.  There&#039;s gonna be a lot of those part-time &amp; &quot;disenfranchised&quot; unemployed out there, too, who aren&#039;t counted un the gub&#039;mint calculation.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>I would not be surprised if it went as high as 12&#8230;</em></p>
<p>And if it does I won&#8217;t hold you to it.  There&#8217;s gonna be a lot of those part-time &amp; &#8220;disenfranchised&#8221; unemployed out there, too, who aren&#8217;t counted un the gub&#8217;mint calculation.</p>
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		<title>By: kranky kritter</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2009/03/06/unemployment-hits-25-year-high/comment-page-1/#comment-437305</link>
		<dc:creator>kranky kritter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 17:26:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/?p=13875#comment-437305</guid>
		<description>At this point, it seems as though the best-case scenario is for unemployment to bottom out somewhere between 9.5 and 10.5%. But given that we&#039;re still apparently seeing an &lt;i&gt;acceleration&lt;/i&gt; in the rate of loss, I would not be surprised if it went as high as 12.

The only consolation one can take is from looking at a historical graph of the unemployment rate. Past performance is of course no &lt;i&gt;guarantee&lt;/i&gt; of future results, but it usually provides a reasonable baseline for forecasting. Better than nothing, anyway.

What the historical graph illustrates is that during major recessions unemployment grows quite quickly. There is always a period of a year of so where the receding economy hemhorrages jobs and the unemployment rate goes from around 4 or 5 to the 8.5 to 10 range. In other words, the number of people unemployed roughly doubles. In the past, unemployment has always bottomed out around 10, plus or minus lets say 1.5 for now. Then after it bottoms out, the economy seems to grow new jobs almost as quickly as they were shed. In other words, the pointy parts of the graph tend to look roughly the same on both sides. If the graph rises quickly on the left side of the peak, it tends to drop almost as quickly on the right.

Of course, we&#039;ll all feel better about this if and when we see some signs of a bottom. Let&#039;s all pray that happens within the next 3 or 4 months, and refrain from devouring one another. OK?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At this point, it seems as though the best-case scenario is for unemployment to bottom out somewhere between 9.5 and 10.5%. But given that we&#8217;re still apparently seeing an <i>acceleration</i> in the rate of loss, I would not be surprised if it went as high as 12.</p>
<p>The only consolation one can take is from looking at a historical graph of the unemployment rate. Past performance is of course no <i>guarantee</i> of future results, but it usually provides a reasonable baseline for forecasting. Better than nothing, anyway.</p>
<p>What the historical graph illustrates is that during major recessions unemployment grows quite quickly. There is always a period of a year of so where the receding economy hemhorrages jobs and the unemployment rate goes from around 4 or 5 to the 8.5 to 10 range. In other words, the number of people unemployed roughly doubles. In the past, unemployment has always bottomed out around 10, plus or minus lets say 1.5 for now. Then after it bottoms out, the economy seems to grow new jobs almost as quickly as they were shed. In other words, the pointy parts of the graph tend to look roughly the same on both sides. If the graph rises quickly on the left side of the peak, it tends to drop almost as quickly on the right.</p>
<p>Of course, we&#8217;ll all feel better about this if and when we see some signs of a bottom. Let&#8217;s all pray that happens within the next 3 or 4 months, and refrain from devouring one another. OK?</p>
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		<title>By: Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2009/03/06/unemployment-hits-25-year-high/comment-page-1/#comment-437303</link>
		<dc:creator>Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 16:36:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/?p=13875#comment-437303</guid>
		<description>Ha! Ha!  Rush Limbaugh has bad breath!

And he&#039;s flatulant!  And oh, yuck! Is he &lt;em&gt;fugly&lt;/em&gt;...

In other news, Michael Jackson is making a comeback, and Obama&#039;s little girls have a new &lt;strong&gt;swing set!&lt;/strong&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ha! Ha!  Rush Limbaugh has bad breath!</p>
<p>And he&#8217;s flatulant!  And oh, yuck! Is he <em>fugly</em>&#8230;</p>
<p>In other news, Michael Jackson is making a comeback, and Obama&#8217;s little girls have a new <strong>swing set!</strong></p>
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