Even if Palin does run, one look at the last two non-incumbent-party primary campaigns suggests that even a heavy initial favorite (Howard Dean in ‘04 and Hillary Clinton in ‘08, anyone?) is anything but a mortal lock to win the nomination.

Will the 2012 GOP nom be seriously contested, or will the already-preferred candidate get rubber-stamped? I suspect the former, but there’s plenty of time.

I don’t think anyone can dismiss the increased power of the small donor in this age. True enthusiasm on the part of everyday individuals translating to candidate cash has shown that it can be a gamechanger for campaign finance.

Don’t expect the GOP to get caught flat-footed next time. But also don’t underestimate the importance of Obama himself in. IMO, one can attribute the 2008 fundraising gap to a substantial charisma deficit between the candidates.

Much of the GOP base seems to be responding to that by wishing that Sara Palin will be the best choice to bridge that gap. I am currently still skeptical. While I think Palin inspires a similar level of passion, I don’t think her appeal is nearly as broad. Time will tell. There is time for her to broader her appeal, but she has yet to show me she has the political skill and empathic crowd understanding to reach the master level of Clinton, Reagan, and Obama.

That said the Dems actually do worse than the GOP in terms of fundraising almost all the time. ‘08 was different for two reasons. For one McCain was in trouble from the get-go. He led a few times, but according to the RCP poll averages he never led by 3. Given that organization (aka: ground game) is worth 2-3 points, and Obama’s organization was massive, true political junkies McCain was never really ahead. For another Obama brought a lot of new folks into politics.

It’s possible those newly activated folks will stay loyal Dems, and continue to give. It’s possible the GOP has started a tradition of nominating sacrificial lambs. It’s also possible for the new Dems to not like the next nominee, while the GOP figures out a new direction, and nominates a compelling candidate.

Democrats always wants everyone to regard them as the champion of the little guy and the outsiders in contrast to the GOP, which is to be regarded as the sole property of big powerful insider interests.

That’s been a cherished part of the liberal litany for generations. So I can anticipate that many of the dem partisans here want to fight that argument, because they believe this take is essentially true. I’m not interested. Everyone can have their own mileage.

My opinion, which McCain accentuated pretty clearly, is this:

When it comes to big powerful insider special interests, the democrats do just fine.

Anyone who wants to add other facts and arguments to spin this some other way to accentuate their PoV is welcome to it. But the simple fact as stated just above is stubbornly true, even if you want to argue about what it means, precisely.