Gallup: Dems Hold 14 Point Party ID Lead Among Women

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Democrats, Gender, Polls, Republicans

Also, they don’t even hold an advantage among men any more.

The numbers…



I can’t remember when the split was this large, and Gallup’s numbers from the past 9 years bears that out…


And here’s the graph for men…



Remember, McCain lost by 9.5 million votes and Obama became the first Democratic nominee to garner above 50% of the vote since Carter in 1976 and the highest percentage win for a Dem since LBJ in 1964. If Republicans can’t bring women back into the fold, the won’t win the White House. It’s just that simple.


This entry was posted on Thursday, May 7th, 2009 and is filed under Democrats, Gender, Polls, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

9 Responses to “Gallup: Dems Hold 14 Point Party ID Lead Among Women”

  1. Simon Says:

    Well, I told friends online and off before the election that we wouldn’t win without the votes of people like Professor Althouse, and we didn’t.

    It wasn’t her gender that I had in mind as a determining factor, so much as her demographic (intelligent, educated moderates), but who can tell.

  2. Tully Says:

    These results are based on aggregated data from Gallup Polls conducted in the first quarter of 2009.

    And could indicate nothing more than a consistent structural oversampling of Dems by Gallup, which would go a long way towards explaining why Gallup polling consistently falls into “outlier” status as compared to aggregated polling from all poll groups, and in one direction at that.

    Really, you should use more than one source for polling. Preferably ones that publish their complete data and their “weighting” adjustments.

  3. SaneInSF Says:

    Simon, based on Prof Althouse’s current postings, maybe we should edit that to “self-proclaimed intelligent, educated and delusional moderates.” Obama is doing exactly what he said he was going to do.

    So why all the angst?

    Ah, people who are fooled don’t like to know that they were stupid enough to fall for the marketing.

  4. JS Says:

    McCain’s comment where he put air quotes around “women’s health” was offensive at best and harmful at worst. If Republicans wish to have more women in their party, they need to take women a little more seriously- I understood his point was to garner support from pro-lifers, but he ended up just sounding condescending to women in general.

    That’s the first example I can think of that makes me recoil a bit. However, I will say that there are women in the Republican party that do seem to have the cred to begin to improve the conditions from within, take Olympia Snowe for example. Snowe is a moderate who supports legalized abortion and gay rights, but remains economically conservative. But it seems like there’s two kinds of Republicans: those who are Republican due to their no-abortion stance (often self-identifying as strongly Chrisitan) and those Republicans who are not just one-issue voters. One-issue voters are never going to compromise. They end up pushing away their own moderates who are deemed “not conservative enough.”

  5. Jonny Says:

    I’m not so cautiously optimistic that this is the beginning of the end for the Republicans. I will not miss them.

  6. Simon Says:

    SaneInSF: no, we should not, because it would not be accurate. She is indeed an intelligent and educated moderate; that she and I differed in our assessment of Obama and our expectations of what he would do is in office is known, and I suppose that amounts to the tacit claim on my part that she was wrong in her assessment and expectations. I greatly regret her choice to conspire herself in this catastrophe, frankly, but I understand why she did it, I understand that it was as rational and understandable as my contrary decision, given certain considerations, and I won’t allow badmouthing of her for it to go unremarked.

  7. michael reynolds Says:

    The GOP is in very serious trouble. The always-incompatible elements within the party are now turning against each other.

    But it’s more than policy differences, it’s cultural. Money Republicans have almost nothing in common with Jesus Republicans. Money Republicans are far closer culturally to middle of the road Democrats. You can see a Republican banker and a Democrat lawyer sitting down for a drink. Add a Republican evangelical to the mix and the natural pairing will not be Republican with Republican.

    Exacerbating the GOP’s problem is that we are having one of our swings toward secularism. It comes in waves: religious revival followed by secularization. In another 20 years the pendulum will probably swing back, but this current religious revival is burned out.

    Demographics are a disaster for the GOP. Democrats have women, blacks, hispanics, the young and the better educated. That’s a very nice hand to be holding.

    The nail in the coffin is the intransigence of the so-called “base.” They know time is passing them by, they know they’ve lost on all their issues, they know the Money Republicans despise them and are embarrassed by them. If you gather the “base” together in a room you see working class white people with gray hair. The base knows all this, at least intuitively, and it makes them angry and less likely than ever to compromise.

    Finally, the GOP is being rebranded as the party of the South. That just make the party seem even less attractive to Republicans in the rest of the country.

    The time has come for the GOP to split. In a three-way contest the Money Republicans have a chance to draw independents and make a race of it. In a two-way with the base still hanging around their necks, the Money Republicans are toast.

  8. SaneInSF Says:

    Simon, I completely disagree. Obama’s hard right turn after the primaries should have been a warning sign to “educated moderates.” It was completely obvious that he was pandering to the center, when his actions — whatever light record he had — showed where he stood and stands today. Complete snow job.

    To “hope” what he was going to do something different was merely that — hope. That and $1.55 here in CA will give you a coffee at Starbucks.

    As for all this talk about the GOP dying. Just turn back the clock to 2004, and remember how fast things change. I can remember the exact same discussion about the Democratic Party not so long ago.

    Pelosi has done a masterful job, but I wonder if her partisan actions are about to catch up with her (and as one of her constituents, I’m having a grand old time with my fellow San Franciscans poking fun at her and her hypocrisy over torture).

  9. Tweets that mention Donklephant » Blog Archive » Gallup: Dems Hold 14 Point Party ID Lead Among Women -- Topsy.com Says:

    [...] this page was mentioned by Win Attwiter (@wintwitwon), karl_bucus (@karl_bucus), Justin Gardner (@jpgardner) and others. [...]

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