In particular, he is likely to see this appointment as one of two or even three he will make. Like any good pol, he’ll be weighing these appointments together (e.g., “I can appoint a woman and a Latino too” — and “My first appointment may be easier to make, since I now have as many Senators as I can expect, whereas after 2010, who knows?”).

Also, Rick is right to point out that while the first may be easier in this sense, it’s also true that Obama has a full plate, his big priorities still need broad political support, and a court donneybrook will distract both him ad Congress from these. I’m not sure who this favors, but it’s real.

I’d add one point of my own: I read into Obama’s words about “empathy” and understanding real-life experiences as prepping people for a change from the tendency to nominate sitting judges and/or law professors, because they have a paper trail that assures supporters of their ideological bona fides. The big problem with that is the fact that it also provokes opposition and adds to confirmation difficulties.

This may be why both Granholm and Napolitano are on every short list.