In fact, Obama’s main strategy for dealing with the GOP has been to present himself as a reasonable moderate pragmatic politician while portraying his opposition as far outside the mainstream. Romney is already far outside the mainstream, so in many ways he would present an ideal opponent for Obama. A billionaire who believes in magic underwear and performs baptisms for the dead, versus a working-class black guy from Chicago who graduated summa cum laude from Harvard…jeez, how do you think the media will spin that? I’m smelling Ross Perot in ’92 here…a super-rich guy who seems reasonable at first glance, but when you scratch the surface he reveals himself as seriously flaky. Has anyone forgotten about Mitt tying the dog to the top of his car?

My question is: do you know you’re crazy?

The Republicans have to move back to the center, or they will won’t come back for 30 years or more. I’m one of the people who could and have voted for either party, but there isn’t any Republican who is mildly appealing.

Palin, Jindal, Huckabee? This is the future? What a joke.

Blagojevich/Palin in 2012!

True, but I have my doubts that Palin’s even going to be in the picture come 2012. She doesn’t strike me as being very enthused about a grueling two-year presidential campaign, or the prospect of putting her kids (and grandchild) under the media microscope for that long. If she’s not up for that, what does that say about being up for four years as the actual POTUS?

That’s the fundamental problem right there: the GOP is being held hostage by so-called “social conservatives” for whom abortion or gay rights or welfare queens (etc, etc, etc) is a single monolithic make-or-break issue. Romney can’t win that game. He has to do what he did in the 2008 primaries, and veer to the right on social issues, or he risks splintering the party into what it really has become, a loosely federated collection of special interest groups. And then he loses the majority of voters, who by and large aren’t complete wackos.

If economic circumstances are still in a faltering mode, the doubts and grumbling will have gathered steam. The media will be reporting on Obama fatigue. If his popularity slides, he will begin to appear more strident and defensive. And more and more people will begin to focus on his pedantic side, and his finger wagging.

BTW, I hope his handlers work with him on that. Speaking purely symbolically, pumping a pointing finger for emphasis while talking is a very bad habit. It makes viewers feel like they are be lectured at for being a bad child.

In ant case, the decisive factor in 2012 will be Obama’s success and/or popularity. Think about Clinton v. Dole in 1996. Clinton had a lot of problems and had been elected in 1992 with a mere plurality. But he was on enough of a roll by 1996 that he drew an honorable but lame sure loser as an opponent. In a similar vein, Mondale was a great guy but never had a chance against RR as an incumbent. And while Kerry had a chance in 2004, the power of the incumbency and some smart politics carried Bush to a second term.

If Obama is sagging come 2011, the GOP Presidential sweepstakes will draw a lot of people no one is thinking much about now, and it’s foolish to guess what will happen. If Obama is riding high, everyone may wind up defering to Romney (including Palin who might think she’d do better by waiting).