Electoral Realities Draw Bleak Picture For Republicans
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in RepublicansI keep telling people online and off that Republicans need to reform their party or risk becoming merely a regional power. And contrary to some accusations made here and elsewhere, I’m not trying to trick anybody…I’m just looking at the numbers.
So is Republican strategist Mike Murphy…
Despairing Republican friends have been asking me what I think we should do to rebuild the GOP and begin our certain and inevitable comeback. My answer disappoints them: ‘Build an ark.’I say this because I’ve made a career out of counting votes, and the numbers tell a clear story; the demographics of America are changing in a way that is deadly for the Republican Party as it exists today…
It is true that attitudes change. A magnificent Republican renewal may still be possible. Conservatism is traditionally energized by a reaction to liberal excess, and the unabashedly leftish tilt of the Obama Administration’s domestic agenda does give hope.
But demography is a powerful force… Young voters need to see a GOP that is more socially libertarian, particularly toward gay rights. With changing demographics come changing attitudes, and aping the grim town elders from Footloose is not the path back to a Republican White House. The pro-life movement can still be a central part of the GOP — it has support among all ages (and a slim majority of Latino voters) — but the overall GOP view on abortion must aggressively embrace the big tent.
No doubt this will be ignored.
(h/t: TIME, via Political Wire)
This entry was posted on Thursday, June 11th, 2009 and is filed under Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
June 11th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
The social libertarian thing is tricky when it comes to a big tent. While it may play with a chunk of young voters, the gay rights (which is really gay marriage at this point, with splash of DADT) agenda absolutely does not play with the African-American vote. Look at the Prop 8 exit polls and you’ll see what I mean.
And I would propose that it’s not so much the conservative position on these social issues but *how* they are presented. Let’s all remember that Obama is against gay marriage, but the way he communicates that position is markedly different from the media stereotype of the old white guy passing judgment on a lifestyle from a position of moral superiority.
So, being “diverse” or “inclusive” doesn’t mean pandering to any given minority or special interest group. It doesn’t mean an “everyone is right all the time, and all choices are good choices” platform. It’s about having a party that is built on governmental truths and ideals and ideas that are accessible to a wide swath of the population. The economy runs better when the government encourages competition and transparency. People are happier the less the government intercedes in their lives. The government does a really bad job at running businesses. Making America secure doesn’t require a bunch of overseas adventures. Greater opportunity is superior to equality of outcome. Remember the Bill of Rights? We meant that. Innocent life should be protected.
It’s also important to state quite clearly that the last Republican President failed miserably at most of these planks. That’s the primary reason why the party is in such disarray. The person who was supposed to be leading the GOP patently violated key aspects of what made the GOP appealing in the first place, leaving party members (and conservative independents) scratching their heads saying, “Wait, I didn’t sign up for THIS.”
June 11th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
Well said, Exiled. I was going to stress those exact same points. The main one being: We need to stop looking at people as groups, and start looking at them as people. Stop with the stupid focus groups, and just say what you mean. Palin got a lot of flack in the media, and it was for a good reason, she really jazzed people up because they just wanted to see someone real. She was a credible threat.
What surprises me the most is how often Democrats use conservative points in explaining why they’re better, and all the while supporting ideas that will change those values.
Look at Sonya’s tale, how wonderful everyone sees it, but it’s chock full of conservative values. I don’t remember her ever thanking welfare. Instead, she thanked her hard-working parents and a good work ethic, as well as her own personal responsibility.
June 12th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
The Republican party needs to get its act together quickly, 2012 is getting closer everyday. Have they resigned themselves to believe that Obama will already win a second term?
Come on guys, voters want a solid contest for president, we are getting tired of picking the lesser of two evils.
June 12th, 2009 at 8:14 pm
The big government party will always be able to appeal to all non-whites. All the Democrats have to say is that they will tax the rich (which minorities will understand to mean whites) and spend the money on them. Can a conservative party really support quotas, set asides, affirmative action, and race norming? Can a conservative party appeal to individualism when blacks and Hispanics see the word individualism as a racist term?
So the real question is does the U.S. really need to big government, big spending, nanny state parties? If you look at NY, Mass., and California, the answer is no. So the last question is how will politics function in the coming one party state. Will elections be like the Virginia Democratic primary where about 200K voters determined who will be the next governor?
June 12th, 2009 at 8:57 pm
I’d much rather be NY, MA or California than Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky or Utah. Was that the question?
June 13th, 2009 at 4:57 am
Word,
The total number of whites in California has been going down for 20 years. California and Mass. have massive budget problems even with having very high taxes. The problem with California and Mass and NYC area is that there is really no place for middle class whites. You either have to be rich or adopted the culture of the third world to survive in such places.
June 13th, 2009 at 11:22 am
super -
You do realize what that makes you sound like don’t you? I think you’ve found your party.
June 13th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
[...] England, reflects the radicalism of the party. Even some Republicans are conceding as much. Republican consultant Mike Murphy is advising the party to moderate its position on social issues, in…. I hope the party listens. I don’t think it’s a good thing that Republicans are [...]
June 13th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
Super:
I live in Irvine, California. There’s a whole lot of middle-class white people around here. Also in Costa Mesa, Tustin, Huntington Beach, Laguna Beach. . . I’m surrounded by middle class white people. I can’t swing a cat without hitting a middle class white person.
As for adopting “the culture?” The culture of Irvine is blandness.
But of course facts are of no interest to racists.
June 13th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
It’s not just a problem of demographics. Certainly it doesn’t help the GOP that they’ve set out to alienate everyone who isn’t old, white and straight. But the problem goes to the ideology as well: GOP core beliefs in small government are increasingly irrelevant to most people.
It’s not a white/black thing or anglo/hispanic thing alone, it’s a rural/city thing. Urban and suburban people see their approaches to life growing closer while rural sensibilities are less and less relevant. No one is farming anymore. Very few people live in small towns. We aren’t a nation of ranchers. We’re a nation of suburban commuters.
We want good roads and/or good public transportation: government. We want good schools: government. We want a decent environment: government. We want access to healthcare: government as we grow older, government when we lose our jobs. We don’t want monopolies gouging us on internet, cable, phone: government. We want a safe food supply: government. Clean water: government. We’re tired of being robbed by credit card companies and banks: government.
The simple truth is that we’ve come to accept what has been obvious for a long time now: Ronald Reagan was wrong; government is not always the problem, in many cases it is the solution.
We need efficient, effective government and we need to pay for it.
And that is why the GOP’s problem is more than just demographics. It is also that core GOP economic ideology is increasingly irrelevant, dated, even nostalgic. Add that to cretinous GOP social policies and you have a bigger problem than just turned-off hispanics.
June 20th, 2009 at 10:28 am
Michael,
Cities like Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore, St Louis have suffered for decades from bad government. Bad schools, high crime, high taxes, bad infrastrucutre. Yet, those cities vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. If voting for good goverment is the motivation for the coming one party the state, the bluest areas of the U.S. do not support the argument. The Democrats have had 50 years to improve the public schools. Yet, the Democrats have spent more time busing children around and conducting social engineering.
The demographic groups that want more goodies from the government are growing faster than the groups capable of paying the taxes to fund those goodies.
Also, Tustin is less than 50% white and is next to Santa Ana that is 80% Hispanic. If you plot voting patterns by percentage of non-hispanic whites, you will see that demogrpahics is driving the issues. Is blacks and Hispanics cared about good schools or low crime, the Democratic party would not get their votes. However is blacks and Hispanics care about transfer payments and free medical care paid by high taxes on whites, then the Democratic Party is the answer.