Comments on: Obama Approval Above 50% In States With 445 Electoral Votes

By: kranky kritter

kranky kritter — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 20:31:28 +0000

They also suggest, in general that the numbers ar affected least by what you say, the next least by what you do, and the most by how people fare.

In other words, by the next election, the relevant questions will be “how bad is it” and how much of the blame does Obama deserve for that? And that’s a mileage issue, folks. My sense is that if things are mediocre to stagnant but improved over today, he’ll get reelected.

If they are as bad or worse than now, he probably won’t.

By: Tully

Tully — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 18:57:07 +0000

Yep. They also suggest that early-term popularity is not a predictor of either performance or re-electability.

By: ExiledIndependent

ExiledIndependent — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 16:19:09 +0000

Tully, those numbers suggest that popularity and long-term efficacy are two different things.

By: Tully

Tully — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 14:27:33 +0000

Presidential approval/favorabilty ratings, Jimmy Carter, June 1977:

Approve: 64%. Favorable: 82%.

Just so one can guage how relevant today’s ratings are to, say, three-plus years from now.

By: superdestroyer

superdestroyer — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 11:30:06 +0000

Anyone who believes that Obama will not be re-elected is a fool. The only quesiton is whether President Obama will win in all fifty states in 2012. If the Republicans nominate Romney, they will probably only win Utah. If they nominate Palin they will be lucky to win Alaska. If they nominate Huckabee, Obama become the first candidate to win all 50 states.

The Republicans should not spend one dollar of private money trying to beat President Obama in 2012. They should try to have to most articulate candidate so they will not be embarrassed during the debates and then the Republicans should concentrate on trying to win at the local and state level.

By: Tully

Tully — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 20:53:12 +0000

Geez, not another massaged “meta-data” interpretation of multiple polls…some of them Kos polls. I applaud Nate Silver’s efforts here but he’s gotta know this is mostly a WAG.

Obama’s approval rating has been steady around 60% since mid-March, after a mild decline from peak until then. Amusingly, his approval rating was highest right after the election, two months before he came into office. Call it the pre-honeymoon bounce. That’s consistent with previous presidents.

Bush’s approval ratings for the same period in 2001 were clustered around 56-58% with occasional spikes over 60%, despite the spitfest dramatics of the Goracle’s Last Stand. His favorability ratings for the same period were a bit higher (yes, they are different things) at about 64-66%. Don’t have Obama’s favorability ratings handy but I’d guess they follow the same general pattern seen with most new presidents of being several points higher than the approval ratings.

What would be more interesting (to me, anyway) would be the “spread” between the approve/disapprove for both at the same periods. Obama’s “spread” has been shrinking. IIRC, Bush’s did too as Dems and centrists reacted to the “Commander in Thief” rhetoric following the close call.

By: ExiledIndependent

ExiledIndependent — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 20:05:15 +0000

Any data on how this compares to favorability at this point in the presidency for Clinton and Bush part Deux?

And as for 2012, the economy will be big. But we’re also seeing a rapidly destabilizing North Korea and Iran, and what could be a “quagmire” in Afghanistan. If we have four more years of dying American soldiers with no end in sight and no real sense of why we’re there or what we’re trying to accomplish, Obama will be accused of being “just another Bush.”