Mitt Romney: 2012 GOP Frontrunner
By The Pajama Pundit | Related entries in News
‘What?!’ you say? You don’t see my logic? Well, my train of thought starts here:
Let’s start with Mark Sanford, who has inspired a new phrase — “I went hiking on the Appalachian Trail†— to describe any kind of mysterious disappearance. [...] Next, there’s Sarah Palin, who has had a rough last several months; after all, when your spat with a late-night comedian has been the highlight of your 2009, you’ve had a tough year. Then there’s Bobby Jindal, who has since stepped back from the spotlight after his dreadful response to Obama’s address to Congress. John Ensign dipped his toes in the Iowa waters, but then confessed last week to having an affair. And Newt Gingrich got in trouble — and didn’t do himself any favors among Latino voters — when he called Sonia Sotomayor a racist. Even the person who was supposed to be the moderate in the 2012 field, Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, has gone to work for … the Obama administration
It seems like each of the likely-potential 2012 primary candidates are imploding in some form or another.
While some of these, errr, missteps are relatively small (Jindal’s response, Palin’s ‘fight’ with Letterman, etc.), I think that it’s safe to completely rule out John Ensign and Jon Huntsman (after all, you can’t admit to an affair or work for the ‘enemy’ and then hope to win your party’s trust, can you?). Gingrich is tougher. He is still wildly popular with the base of the GOP, but the article is right to point out his ‘racist’ comment about Judge Sotomayor. The Latino vote is HUGE in modern presidential politics and could have an extremely negative affect on any potential campaign for The Newt. It’s still too early to dissect Mark Sanford’s situation — as that story is still developing — but you don’t need to be clairvoyant to see that there is something strange afoot in South Carolina.
Which, as I see it, leaves us three candidates with the strong potential: Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Tim Pawlenty. Governor Pawlenty is still a relative unknown on the national stage and Mike Huckabee — despite moderate success in the GOP primary last year — is not a favorite of the base. Hence, my declaration of Romney as the 2012 frontrunner.
Then again, a week is a lifetime in politics — so what does that make three years?
[cross-posted at ThePajamaPundit.com]
This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 24th, 2009 and is filed under News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
June 24th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
South Carolina governor Mark Sanford has officially imploded… trip to Argentina, allegedly with state employee of the female persuasion…
June 24th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Well, so long there Governor Sanford. We hardly knew ye.
Next up, Mitt Romney admits that he is 87% android.
June 24th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
That’s just silly. There are no meaningful “frontrunners” until a meaningful number of bets have been placed. Only wishes and bullsh!t. And even that erroneously equates “favorite” with “frontrunner.” You can’t really have a frontrunner until the real race starts, and the real race is the delegate race. The race starts when it starts, not when some bunch of gun-jumping morons wants it to start.
If a year from now Romney has raised an insurmountably giant pile of money and a raft of eager and powerful supporters, then maybe he has something.
Best case scenario for him is that he has pole position and favorite status.
June 24th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
I think that with some of the recent bad news for some of the other candidates is going to give Pawlenty a chance to get more visibility that he might otherwise get. Romney is certainly the favorite at the moment, but
if you just look at where we stand now, it is a contest to see who will get their clock cleaned by Obama.
June 24th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Kritter: I understand completely what you are saying. However, I am merely hypothesizing as to what the future may (or may not) hold for the GOP.
Believe me, I do not wish Mitt Romney on our country, so I guess it’s just bullshit. =)
June 24th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
It’s sure true that Romney is looking golden — so far.
June 24th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
Except that Steele is right – their base isn’t cozy with him.
June 24th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
Next up, Mitt Romney admits that he is 87% android.
I think you’re underestimating him.
June 24th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
Tully:
Huntsman was the guy on my radar. Evidently on Obama’s, too. (I wonder where Romney did his missionary work?)
June 24th, 2009 at 10:24 pm
Michael, I think that Romney didn’t approve MassCare until his personal rewiring was completed, and tested against EMP. (I saw two Mormon missionairies today, riding their bikes in the 100-plus heat though an industrial area. I felt sorry for them. But I did not stop to give them water.)
In any case, I think tWord is spot on. As a Mormon and former big-spending Mass guv, Romney has tenuous traction with the fundie Xian religious-right part of the GOP base, and even less traction with the fiscons and libertarianoids. He picks up some mainstreeters, but they’re increasingly independents. IMHO this makes him a weak GOP candidate for national elections, when the party still seems intent on little tent. Things have to get pretty godawful before you win national elections from the out-of-power position with little tent.
June 24th, 2009 at 10:48 pm
Hey! don’t just say to yourself or to myself to happy,we are choosing our leader and our next president. last election is enough, don’t repeat our mistake. if republican have good version and see our real leader(Mitt) Obama is not the president now.History return to U.S once, they had Carter 1 in 1979, Iran had revolution 1,we had Reagan 1 in 1980,they have Carter 2 (Obama) in 2009, Iran had revolution 2, we have Reagan 2 too(Mitt). We just look at who will be the best, strongest,smartest,look presidential, most experienced and have good resume, that person is Mitt Romney, why the democrats and liberal hate him, scare him and attack him every thing, he is the man America need now and the future, please unite and rally for him, Reagan 2 have coming and will go to the white house in 2013, so Carter 2 will be retired and go to Kenya.
June 24th, 2009 at 10:57 pm
Romney was in France for his missionary work
June 24th, 2009 at 11:04 pm
I felt sorry for them. But I did not stop to give them water.
Yes, but you didn’t run them over in your giant SUV, Tully, and that’s progress.
I agree that the anti-Mormon sentiment is still there in the GOP. (Of course it’s there in the Dems too, but to such an extent that we simply don’t have any Mormons.) And you’re right, how does he run against ObamaCare if he’s the originator of AndroiCare?
Maybe he can reach out to Hisp . . . Okay, no.
(By the way, the captcha? “few billion.”)
June 24th, 2009 at 11:07 pm
tWord:
So . . . do we already have an ambassador to France?
June 24th, 2009 at 11:51 pm
Michael-
I like France. I think we still owe them an apology. As to Romney, not ready for him or Tom Cruise.
June 25th, 2009 at 2:47 am
Romney is a big mistake with major liabilities…if you didn’t notice the LA Times came out with the scoop on Bain Capital, Romney’s syndicate. Its registered in the Cayman Islands as an offshore tax haven, for starters. Doesn’t look too good when its only purpose was as a hedgefund that bought companies just to lay off the workers, strip and sell the assets and pocket the cash for producing – nada. Looks real good in a depression boys.
This year everyone saw Romney sending out hound-dogs to diss Sarah Palin, starting a whole whispering and back-biting project at the Convention and trying to set up himself as the one who could pick up the pieces. This is someone who as Pro-life as a Mormon missionary in France, dumped his convictions to become Pro-Choice in liberal Mass., and then dumped them again (even though he said they were sacred – these sacred convictions!) when it became convenient to run for national office. He and his followers act like cultists all crazed with desire to take over power. Well not if America means anything to her citizens; carpetbaggers like that belong nowhere even near power. He should of thought about citizenry long before all of his many sons decided to avoid military service. I can just see as well the Democrats making hay about his off-shore tax haven in the Cayman Islands – that’ll look really nifty when times are tough.
June 25th, 2009 at 5:40 am
I think the last election cycle went a decent way to peeling apart religion and politics.
June 25th, 2009 at 8:49 am
As a native masshole and longtime Romney watcher, but not a supporter, I think we could do a lot worse than Romney. He is a pretty smart guy with a broad range of what I would call useful and relevant experience for the job of President.
It’s pretty clear to me that his obvious lifelong ambition to be President someday has deeply colored his wardrobe. this is a guy who, to my thinking, is at his core a strongly conservative person in personal outlook. His decision to pursue the governorship and thus shade himself a bit to the left was IM0 calculated to give him the kind of moderate appeal he thought was needed to win a general election.
And the end result is a candidate who is not strongly supported by either side, and who is distrusted by both sides. Ultimately, if Romney is to win, he probably needs to throw his real self out on the table and just let it all hang out. He needs to look more genuine and less calculated. By the time the next election comes round, a substantial portion of the electorate will be tiring of Obama’s circumspect nodding to both sides of every issue. I tend to like this quite a bit, so I am a bad judge, but my experience is that most folks lose patience with it pretty quickly unless you deliver concrete treats.
My captcha? farmyard contract. What a fertile straight line.
June 25th, 2009 at 8:56 am
(1) It’s June. (2) Who says that was the “highlight” of the last six months? Why not, say, various well-received speeches, visits, and interviews? Why not being cleared of numerous ethics allegations? Why not various official activities as Governor? (Because, presumably, that wouldn’t fit the narrative)
June 25th, 2009 at 9:41 am
[...] Mitt Romney: 2012 GOP Frontrunner – Continued [...]
June 25th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Well Simon, obviously there are competing narratives, each of which does its best to completely ignore the other.
The narrative above comes from the perspective that loves to kick Palin for being a stereotypically small town not major league pol who does little more than parrot the party line. This narrative only acknowledges Palin’s perceived merits for the purpose of expressing incredulity at them. In doing so, it also (and sadly) dismisses the obvious insight that various components of conservative philosophy DO have serious public appeal that can’t be dismissed. Not to mention valuable insight.
The conservative narrative comes from the perspective of what I’d have to call the fairly hardcore partisan conservative true believer. This is how what progressives see as parroting is transformed into “speaking simple truths.”
I don’t believe that conservatives ought to have their insights about the world blithely dismissed. It is not just insulting to many earnest and insightful people, it’s bad for our country, because the truth lies somewhere between the views of each hardcore wing. Progressives still trying to surf the “we’re right about everything and now it’s our turn to make all the rules” waves are IMO dangerous fools.
But this dynamic plays a strong role in what I can only call willful blindness about Palin’s obvious flaws. That any given GOP candidate might be regarded with a uniquely deep distaste by many outside of the GOP core is not necessarily cause for conservative concern. But such lack of concern, such blithe dismissal of the outside critique by those inside the little insular tent means they don’t see any merit to the critiques. And I for one am sure it’s there,
I look at Sara Palin and I see someone who is sporting a message that is at times very defensible and even spot-on. But I also see someone who really lacks gravitas. Her faults remind me very strongly of those of GW Bush that I most despised. Thus I feel that her current ambition is well beyond her skills. We can’t afford another charismatic, incurious, stubborn parrot.
Now maybe Palin will become more practiced, more educated, more skilled in the rhetorical ins and outs of the debate as carried on at the level at which it is conducted in the popular media. That would undoubtedly raise her prospects for success. But will it overcome the first considered impression I and many others developed?
Time will tell, but what I am looking for in order to revise my estimation of her fitness for office is considerably more than increased rhetorical adeptness through practice. I’m looking for evidence of deep consideration, thoughtfulness, appreciation of alternate views, and the ability to answer new and unexpected questions by thinking on her feet and giving a reasonable answer, as opposed to clumsily retreating to cant.
June 25th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Yes, but you didn’t run them over in your giant SUV, Tully, and that’s progress.
Not really, as I sent both the Jeep and the Suburban off to the knackers a coupla years back (with over 650K miles between them), my current vehicle isn’t an SUV and doesn’t have remotely as much real steel up front, and I really hate paying those repair bills.
September 9th, 2009 at 11:10 pm
I was a Romney doubter at first, but he did so well in the debates. By the time we hit 2011, I think his support will only multiply. He has too many positives to let his slip-ups slow him down. It will be interesting to watch the holy rollers gnashing of teeth if he gains the nomination.