The last election polls from Rasmussen came out almost exactly as people voted, so I find them to be pretty accurate.

Obama is in a world of trouble. Even if the economy starts to swing around near the end of 2009, job losses will continue to rise until late 2010. When people look at the economy, they look at JOBS.

People expected a “stimulus” package, meaning a quick economy boost, not a special interest paycheck. This is NOT what the Democrats advertised back in January.

Romney is looking more and more like the level-headed adult in the room.

It is, as Tully’s recent spamfilter coined, a spinola special. It’s built for spin. Therefore, it’s quite safe for us to utterly ignore. Why? Think about it this way:

All of the things that we could say about independents and Obama and healthcare and public support for various administration policies and so on are no more and no less true because of this poll. Without taking any sort of a pro or anti-Obama position here, let me stress that NO substantial changes to how America’s government does anything are going to happen without serious dissent and concern. And actions that win and lose votes.

In what kind of a fantasy world is something like say healthcare reform (whatever that even is, as Tully stresses) going to happen in an epic back-patting session, by popular acclaim? If that was possible, it would have happened long ago, right? The basic problem is that we want what we can’t have, flawless medical treatment instantly, at low cost.

So, we won’t get what we want, we’ll get what we get. After more costly battles.
Whatever reform Obama signs WILL come with substantial political costs. That’s a given. Polls will meter this. Don’ lose your minds over ‘em.

If this poll shows us anything, and I’m not sure it does, then it shows us that a serious high-stakes game is currently underway on an issue with many, many stakeholders. The bigger the game, the higher the stakes, the closer to a 50-50 split you see in the audience.

And I’ll second Tully here. Current polls mean jack. If the stimulus starts to work anytime in the next three years, Afghanistan doesn’t blow up, and Obama can even make symbolic progress in the Mideast Obama wins re-election big.

They are slightly less irrelevant to Congressional chances in 2010. That election is only 16 months away. But that’s still a lot of time. If he gets health care reform done and it works, the stimulus package gets jobs going, etc. the Dems’ll hold the House and almost certainly keep a 60-vote majority in the Senate.