Testing the Justin “birfer” hypothesis by observing the wider sample of all cable news shows on the top three cable news nets, we find all three top cable news nets show declining overall ratings and most cable news shows exhibit similar drops in a reasonably similar time period. Which argues very strongly indeed against Justin’s “birfer” hypothesis for Dobb’s ratings decline.

Extending to Justin’s implied assertion that Dobbs should be fired (a subject he has previously visited on other grounds) for his ratings drop, a comparison of Dobbs’ ratings and his nearest direct competition (Matthews, Hardball) is apropos, and shows that Dobbs is still winning his time slot over Hardball. Even accepting the ratings drop hypothesis (and it’s not a bad one) CNN is not going to dump Dobbs until/unless he tanks in his time slot against Hardball.

Likewise, O’Reilly’s kicking Olbermann’s ass in their time slot, gaining viewers while Olbermann is losing them, yet Olbermann is not on the chopping block when by Justin’s logic or as a strict take on the ratings/competition hypothesis he should be. This strongly suggests something wrong with the hypothesis, some bad assumption either overt or implied.

I’d venture the implied assumption is that they are actually in direct competition for viewers, when they are not. They are aimed at different target demographics. Fox right, CNN mixed populist/centrist, and MSNBC left. So CNN is marginally competing for viewers against both Fox and MSNBC, but Fox and MSNBC are not directly competing with each other. At least, not for the same viewership — all are of course competing for advertiser dollars.

[* -- Why, yes, I am mocking Birfers. Also Trufers.]

So, what worth if any is there in noting a short-term ratings drop for one show and trying to assign a specific causation to it when the overall trend for ALL shows and networks is downward? Shouldn’t it be compared to the competition in the same time slot, and to the oerall network trends? Or is ideological cherry-picking the entire order of the day?

For example, Justin doesn’t seem to have noticed that Olbermann’s ratings trend are not exactly on an upward march, while blustering Bill O’Reilly’s have actually gone up a bit over the same period.

Context counts, doesn’t it?

While it is indeed curious that Dobbs seems to have wandered off his target demographic’s reservation on this issue, it’s sure not possible for his credibility to drop in my eyes. The guy has no insight to offer me. None. Period.

Credibility has nothing to with it. It’s all about the ratings. But cheer up, he’s still pro-gay-marriage and pro-choice….

Remember this is the guy who was telling us two years ago about the Mexican lepers coming to kill us all.

He has no credibility.