With the economy the way it is… we need change!

So, barring any newcomers appearing between now and 2012, I think the 2012 Republican race will be between Huckabee, Romney, Pawlenty, Jindal, and Ron Paul (assuming Ron Paul is still healthy enough to run in 2012- he will be 76). Given that lineup, I think either Huckabee or Pawlenty will be the likely nominee.

Huckabee scares the left more than the moderates, so I think he’s electable.

Palin won’t run. Neither will Gingrich. So all we really know from the data is that the two guys who we can assume will be running, Romney and Huckabee, have similar levels of appeal. That’s it.

We can also assume that at least one more serious contender has yet to emerge. From where? I dunno. But if I had to guess, I would bet on whoever can lay plausible claim to some sort of half-@ssed rhetoric like along the lines of let’s say “sheltering our great nation from the assaults of socialist Obamistas.”

So if for example the GOP manages to defeat some big Obama initiative, look for suspects among whatever pack of republicans is eating through the other @ssholes to get his face on camera and take credit.

Personally, I’ll cheerfully acknowledge that aspects of Huckabee have substantial appeal. But he also IMO has a little bit of kook in him. So I expect that by the time his 3rd bid in 2016 rolls around, people will be calling him quixotic. But hey, at least he’s not a sanctimonious douche like Nader.

Huckabee is none of those. He is inarticulate in a George Bush kind of way. He has little interest in the issues and in incoherent and inconsistent in his views. He is an authoritarian that would lose in a 50 state route. Huckabee would be incapable of devilering Arkansas let alone any other state. He is such a bad candidate he would probably lose Utah, Idaho, and Alabama.

1. He’s funny;
2. He’s socially conservative;
3. He’s well-educated and urbane;
4. He can hunt.

With all this going for him, he’ll get a pass on the fiscal issues, as long as he looks like he’s willing to track right on spending issues.

He’ll be our new President in 2012.

He’s a candidate killer in the primary; he takes all of the social conservative voters and leaves the fiscal conservatives fumbling for the rest, which means anything can happen.

He is probably most responsible for McCain squeaking through as Huckabee stayed in the race so long that neither Romney nor Guiliani could gain traction.

Don’t pay too much attention to these polls. Right now there’s been no campaign. We don’t know what issues will be important in 2012. And these guys still have three full years to do something really stupid.

Remember, Calista: Once upon a time, you were the young intern that Newt was screwing, while he was married. Are you really sure that he’s changed, just because he married you? Are you keeping tabs on his current crop of young interns, Calista?

Not. A. Chance.