Correction: the reason that the Dems won Congress in 2006 is because independents led a challenge to the US war policy in Iraq that the majority of Americans soon followed. It was independent voters in 2006 who went left, after delving into the centrist/right waters for the past 15 year, as Jackie Salit noted last year. http://bit.ly/14OsRw

What the polls don’t count, and the media doesn’t see, is that there is a growing movement of organized independents who are having an impact beyond their numbers because they are organized. Organization counts on the ground in elections, and historically.

In this case every result since mid-2005 has the Dems within three points of 50, and the GOP within three points of 40. And all but three of those polls were within two points of that 50/40 split.

It’s possible the nasty health care debate, and the economy are driving Dem numbers down and GOP numbers up. It’s also possible that nothing’s changed. We won’t know until the next Gallup poll comes out.

Regardless of these numbers the Dems could lose seats in 2010. The right-wing weirdos are 15-20% of the country. Turnout in 2010 will probably be 35%. As 20% is more than half of 35% the Dems could get their asses kicked. They certainly won’t lose the Senate, but they could lose the House easily.

It will all depend on who actually shows up on election day.

As I said, I don’t support cap and trade. But as bad an idea as I think it is, I would STILL assume that your utility company is exaggerating.

As to the budget? I am fairly sure that money for the stimulus package all got attributed to the 2009 budget, regardless of whether it has been spent yet. So if the projected deficit is 1.5 trillion, it should not be due to stimulus money that was allocated in 2009 but hasn’t yet been spent.

The reason? If you could get those leaning numbers within each of the more competitive districts — those that went for Bush in 2004 and/or McCain in 2008 but were picked off by Democrats in 2006 and 2008 plus any others where Democrats won by narrow margins in 2008 — we’d probably see a mcu better split for the GOP. That’s why we call them swing voters and swing districts, after all.

Sure, it’s early and the numbers can change back. But the 2010 cycle starts in earnest no more than two months from now. So if you had to bet money now, you’d be smart to bet that the GOP will pick up somewhere between 10 and 20 House seats and a couple of Senate seats.

How quickly we forget!

Please see your last post from Friday.

Have a good weekend!

Agnostick
agnostick@excite.com

For the past decade or more, it’s been almost impossible to find Republican candidates that I can bring myself to vote for in a general election. Occasionally someone slips in (Arnold Schwarzenegger, for example), but most moderate conservatives get blown out in the California Republican primary by the nut cases. Which means that come the general election I end up voting for a Democrat — or, when faced by someone like Boxer, going 3rd party.

So it looks to me like Gallup (and the rest of the polling organizations) need to think hard about rephrasing their question. Because the one they have has seriously diminishing predictive value.

Our energy company uses almost predominantly coal fired plants. Obama has said he wants to drive the coal business out of business.

The Treasury department released numbers last week that said cap and trade will cost the Average American family 1700 dollars per year.

But anyways the democrats are going to be beaten to death over Cap and Trade.

As to the 2010 budget? It already got a prejected deficit of 1.5 triilion dollars. why? because only 14 percent of the stimulus has been spent. thats still 86 percent to go.

the 2011 budget deficit is expect to be 980 billion dollars in a good economy. Every economist I know, and I know a lot of them say that their is no way this recession ends before 2011 and it will be in danger of a double dip recession which could prolong it for another 2-3 years.

“Its the Economy STupid” Bill Clinton’s campaign slogan.

Justin, I think there’s good reason why the middle is leaning right. They’ve seen the democrats in action over the last year. And It’s an echo of the complaints I consistently make and get savaged for. Moderates and independents don’t like the government spending well beyond its means, trying to establish big new programs with money it doesn’t have, and pretending that it can all be paid for by only raising taxes on the wealthy.

Warranted or not, the stimulus bull was loaded with unnecessary pork. Independents are comfortable assuming that both of the programs doomed cites will cost regular folks more money, and won’t change their minds because you cite reassurances from the congressional budget office.

Over the next 5 months, we are going tom see where the economy is really headed. If the holiday season is lean, that’ll be a bad sign,. And then we’ll start to see what the projections are for the next budget. Moderates and independents will be looking to see whether the next budget has overspending at the same scope as the last Bush and 1st Obama budgets.

Now, you can argue until you are blue in the face that the overspending of the last Bush and first Obama budgets was crucial and necessary to avoid a bigger recession. That is a questionable but defensible position. In other words, maybe you’re right or partly right about that.

But that doesn;t speak to the plain fact that the scope of the overspending in those budgets is utterly unsustainable over the longer term. Gov’t spending must come down substantially from 2008 and 2009 levels. To claim otherwise is innumerate. If spending doesn’t come down by at least say 10% over 2008-9 levels, many moderates will feel that we have no choice but to support whatever candidate insists on a renewed effort by the fed gov’t to spend within its means as a first principle.

If you are paying attention to the federal budget and you can do the math, then you understand how deadly serious a situation our nation is in with spending.

Cap and trade and healthcare.

If they get cap and trade up and running before the elections next year the Dems are gonna take a huge thumping at the polls.

My utility company has already sent us letters telling us that our energy bills are going up 40 percent.

Thats huge in a recession. No matter whose fault the recession is Americans have very, very short memories and by june of next year…it will be Bush who???