Here’s the thing, perhaps those that identifies themselves as Republican no longer associate themselves as so. I would say that I would have identified myself as Republican in 2007, but now am fully independent. I am also more moderate than most Republicans and support health care. Perhaps more people like me have also disassociated themselves with the Republican party?

As others have noted, as proposals get more concrete, the poll turns into simply a question of whether one likes the proposal or not. So in 2007, a GOP-leaning individual may believe that yes, in the abstract, government should provide some kind of minimum health coverage for the poor — perhaps an extension of Medicaid, something like that. But in 2009, when the debate is over a specific, and very massive, government intervention in the health care segment of the economy, the same GOP-leaning individual answers the same question “no,” because he doesn’t support the details of the actual proposal on the table.

The fact that Democrat/Democrat-leaning support also fell significantly during the same time period provides pretty strong support for this explanation.

IMO once the reform actually passes those numbers will go back to 60% fairly quickly, and at that point a lot of the doom-and-gloom polls the Dems are seeing will recover. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if six months after the bill goes through most Americans don’t think it was too little, as many of its provisions won’t come into effect until 2013.

The trick is getting it through the Senate. And hopefully doing it soon. The US System of government is really bad at dealing with multiple problems at the same time; so I sincerely doubt we’ll solve the economy, climate change, and Afghanistan in 2010 if we don’t have health care through the Senate in 2009.

(my captcha–”hurls less”–maybe I should avoid the puns?)

In 2007, many folks felt comfortable with an answer that encouraged the government to help put on this issue.

But now, the “yes” answer to this question is quite likely to be viewed as supportive of the current effort. It’s pretty clear to me that most folks think the government needs to play an important role in healthcare, but they don’t agree on the precise nature of that role. Many folks who don’t think the current reform effort is on target answered no to the poll question even though, in the abstract, they don’t disagree that the government needs to bear some responsibility.

I really, really, REALLY hope folks don’t dismiss what I’m saying here. If you watch how poll answers change in relation to the same or similar questions asked over time, you’ll see it’s quite true. Many folks are savvy enough to think about how a give answer will be viewed in the context of the current climate and answer the question they WANT to answer.

In other words, many people were asked

“do you think it’s the government’s responsibility to ensure healthcare coverage,

and they answered

“No, I don’t support the current reform effort.”

Calling it soreloserism misses the point.

However, there’s another aspect to consider: In 2007/2008, the concept of the federal government ensuring that all Americans have health care was still abstract. In 2009, the fantasy version has been replaced with the sausage-factory version, which is also the version that has been shaped by Democrats. So, can you blame Republicans for changing their minds about whether it really should be the federal governments role to ensure health coverage for all?

*My main exceptions are defense, children/education, protection from abusive corporations, spending on research that benefits us all. Basically, collective benefits, not individual ones.

Interesting but not surprising, and I’m not sure what political lesson can be gleaned form it. After all, a lot of the Republicans and Republican leaners voted for Obama or Democrats for Congress (indeed, their party self-identification probably was more Democrat last year and in 2006).