” mw does write 10,000 word dissertations. And I’d love to see another sometime soon!” – jg

C’mon Justin. Lets be fair. All of my screeds are well under 9,000 words.

I will, of course, be posting more here soon. But, by way of explanation, and in the FWIW category, it’s not just Donk. I have also been neglecting DWSUWF in recent weeks.

The reason is that I have become obsessed with a local issue in SF, and it has been consuming my blogging energies. My “other” blog, which I used primarily to document golf scores and fishing expeditions, is now given over to my undisciplined wordy screeds on this issue, which I’ve dubbed “The Golf War”. I just don’t think it would be of interest to readers outside of the San Francisco bay area. One post touched on a national issue – specifically McCain/Coburns Wasteful Stimulus Spending list. Believe it or not, I am defending a stimulus spending project. I know. Anyway, I considered cross posting this one at the Donk, but determined that explaining all the context around the post would take me over the 10,000 word limit.

But IMO Justice is irrelevant to politics. The public thinks the buck stops at the President’s desk, and is not really sophisticated enough to tell the difference between talking about a program and implementing it*. Thus Obama will get political credit for TARP even tho it was proposed by his predecessor, approved by Congress largely because it was clear we needed to do something or Really Bad Shit would happen, and implemented by that predecessor.

But in the political world all that reality isn’t relevant because during the few months where Bush was doing all the TARP stuff it was below most people’s RADAR. In the year since it’s been a major issue off and on, so Obama’s future poll numbers are partly tied to whether the public thinks TARP worked.

*This is not a criticism of the public. Policy takes awhile to take effect, and even if youy know a lot about it it’s frequently difficult to figure out precisely what caused a particular outcome. Politicians know this, so they play the blame-game. To figure out whose right in the blame game the public would have to become PhDs in public policy and spend all their time researching policy issues, which would leave little time for important things like making sure America’s kids do their homework. The most sensible way to get around this problem is blame everything on the most powerful guy, and in the US that’s the President.

We are ignoring the Democratic control of Congress for the last two years of the Bush presidency to blame the GOP for the deficit of those years, so we have to ignore the fact that TARP was passed by a Democratic congress as well. Bush gets “credit” for TARP and any “profits” the government makes from it.

But Frank, mw does write 10,000 word dissertations. And I’d love to see another sometime soon!

@blackoutyears He can quip. I just didn’t think it read like one. But these things are hard to tell.

They are governing. They are just governing badly.

/quip>

Sorry. I didn’t read it that way.

And your articles are great. But you know I think that. :-)

And Justin … lazy? Really? I made a quip. I research my articles, but in comments I expect the ability to make quips and discuss things without footnotes.

If you look at the numbers right now the jobs problem is most politically pressing. Has been since Obama took office. But in the long-term healthcare costs are a much bigger problem. So we’ve spent most of this year debating health reform, and will almost certainly get something passed real soon.

BTW, I did think of one thing that Obama probably has to push for that needs strong Congressional support. Don’t Ask Don’t Tell is a law, so changing it needs Congressional approval. Including 60 Senators.

He may get that change, but I doubt it. But going for it in the current political environment doesn’t seem very risky, and will ensure that the gay community and their friends keep voting Dem.

Here’s just a few things they’ve done so far. This was taken from a list of Obama’s achievements and plans that are in motion, but a lot of this is being done with the Dem Congress.

- New federal funding for science and research labs

- Increased infrastructure spending (roads, bridges, power plants) after years of neglect

- Funds for high-speed, broadband Internet access to K-12 schools

- New funds for school construction

- US Auto industry rescue plan

- Housing rescue plan

- $789 billion economic stimulus plan

- US financial and banking rescue plan

- The missile defense program is being cut by $1.4 billion in 2010

- Tax write-offs for those who buy hybrid automobiles

- Cash for clunkers program offers vouchers to trade in fuel inefficient, polluting old cars for new cars; stimulated auto sales

- Expanded the SCHIP program to cover health care for 4 million more children

- Signed national service legislation; expanded national youth service program

- Expanding vaccination programs

- Closed offshore tax safe havens

- Ended the previous policy of offering tax benefits to corporations who outsource American jobs; the new policy is to promote in-sourcing to bring jobs back

- Ended the previous practice of protecting credit card companies; in place of it are new consumer protections from credit card industry’s predatory practices

- Energy producing plants must begin preparing to produce 15% of their energy from renewable sources

- Lower drug costs for seniors

- Ended the previous practice of forbidding Medicare from negotiating with drug manufacturers for cheaper drugs; the federal government is now realizing hundreds of millions in savings

- Increasing pay and benefits for military personnel

- Improved housing for military personnel

- Initiating a new policy to promote federal hiring of military spouses

- Improved conditions at Walter Reed Military Hospital and other military hospitals

- Increasing student loans

- Increasing opportunities in AmeriCorps program

- Established a new cyber security office

- Students struggling to make college loan payments can have their loans refinanced

- Improving benefits for veterans

- Making more loans available to small businesses

- Attempting to reform the nation’s healthcare system which is the most expensive in the world yet leaves almost 50 million without health insurance and millions more under insured

- Passed sweeping financial regulations

…in under 11 months.

But no, they’re not doing anything. Not at all.

Give me a break.

Health care will be done. If Cap-and-trade hasn’t passed by then Obama will impose strict regulations on Carbon all by himself. His war policies should fly through regardless of majority — if the GOP filibusters those policies they’ll ge torn to shreds by the electorate.

That’ll leave things like screwing the dug companies, and finance regulation. Both of those are popular enough that it’s difficult to see how every Republican filibusters them. And if the GOP tries they’ll have hell to pay in 2012.

I’m not saying we’ll pick up house seats in 2010. We’re bound to lose some. I’m not so sure about the Senate. Many of the places where the GOP is optimistic are places it shouldn’t be optimistic. Dodd, for example, is unpopular but during the last Senate election in CT the GOP came in third. Whoever they nominate will get his ass kicked if he’s not moderate to left-wing, and I sincerely doubt any GOP candidate in the country will get elected without the anti-moderate tea party’s backing.

The rest really depend on how primaries play out. Charlie Christ is probably a shoe-in in Florida, but his opponent (Marc Rubio) is much beloved by the tea-party crown, but is only a 50-50 proposition in a red state during a peiod when the polls are kind to the GOP.

“The Reagan reference is important because it shows that a poll result at this stage of the game probably doesn’t say anything about the President’s chances of re-election. President Clinton was in about the same position, and both won reelection handily.” – FH

Going into the reelection campaign both Reagan and Clinton had the advantage of divided government and the opposition party in control of at least one legislative branch. This kept their more extreme impulses in check and reinforced a public perception that they were centrist.

It does not seem likely that the GOP can dig out of the hole they made for themselves in one cycle. If by some miracle the GOP was able to retake either the Senate or House in 2010, I think it would counter-intuitively enhance Obama’s reelection prospects. If the Dems retain narrow majorities in 2010, I expect there is a real possibility of another “throw the bums out” sea change in 2012 – and we will again trade the disaster of one party Democratic rule for the disaster of one party Republican rule.

These polls sound about right (even pretty good) for a president whose country is in as much shit as ours is. If healthcare passes and the troughing of the economy tweaks into a legitimate sustained uptick, even a slight upward trend, then Obama’s numbers will firm and bounce back.