You can make as many excuses as you want looking in the rear view mirror, but I remember when “President Dumbell” was elected (Reagan). The Democrats were overjoyed that he was nominated, since he was the “aging cowboy” who was an “empty suit”, only skilled at reading words from a teleprompter as long as Nancy’s hand was in his back, puppet style, to make his lips move.

“Dubya” was so dumb he beat two of the countries best Democrats, including one that is considered very smart in comparison.

I don’t think Palin would get past the later primaries in good shape, but has a chance in places like Iowa and New Hampshire (Huckabee won Iowa last time, and New Hampshire has voted for folks like Pat Buchanan in the not so distant past.) Get past SC and I think she’s in trouble. But to underestimate the advantage of “star power” is a big mistake.

Her first reaction to Tina Fey was to say Fey had nailed her, and her second reaction was to go on the show. Arguably that was a really dumb move as Fey’s parody was biting, to say the least. “Fancy pageant walking” at a press conference, “I can see Russia from my house,” etc. are not very presidential. Shatner, OTOH, is making as much fun of himself as he is of Sarah Palin. There are loads of speeches actual Presidents made, many of which were fairly well received, that Shatner could turn into laugh riots.

Certainly her followers have no sense of humor about this stuff, and some act like she’s royalty. But Palin herself never acts that way. That’s part of her appeal.

Now,I thought the same thing about Bush, BUT I didn’t think under 2000 circumstances it would stop him from being elected. So soon after the outcome of the Bush Presidency, you have to wonder whether a similar homespun figure without mastery of political details can get elected. IOW, Bush’s big failures make this kind of competency more of an issue in voters’ minds. Bush created a higher competency hurdle for Pallin than what he leaped.

The Shatner thing WAS a smart move, because it may mean she’s learning how to play the game, show thicker skin, some humility, and the ability to laugh at yourself.

Is this a signal she’s going to stop whining about being treated fairly, and just shut up and play? If so, good for her. I still don’t think she’ll make a strong run for the 2012 nom.

And I would like to point out that the demographics are shifting in a way that’s very bad for anti-elitist white populists who spout the common-sense wisdom of the prairies. Reagan and Nixon dominated. Bush Sr. won convincingly once. Bush Jr. lost the popular vote once, and eked out a marginal victory the second time.

This is largely due to the growth of minority groups. A candidate who got Dukakis vote totals among various racial groups, for example, would have gotten nearly 49% in 2008:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/would-mike-dukakis-have-won-2008.html

Add in the obvious attack ads — Katie Couric asking “what do you read,” Levi Johnston, Quitter, etc. — and poor Sarah Palin is not gonna have an easy road to the White House.