We’ve got a confirmed death threat against Eric Cantor and a new story about 9 far righties with IED planning seditious violence.

So, the whole “bad methodology, nothing to see here” vibe is wobbling a bit iffy, if you ask me. I’m happy to agree that the Harris poll may have been crafted to serve the ends of those eager to make righties look unhinged. But recent events seem to be suggesting that conservatives are reaping what has been sown while denying that we are seeing a harvest.

I should add, however, that as the poll has cooled (it was hot of the press when Gerry and I commented), concerns and caveats have been raised against it. Perhaps the most sensible of these is the observation that when a poll claims 6% of Democrats think Obama is the antichrist, something may be wrong.

I’m an inveterate skeptic of opinion polls; I accept that they have their uses, but you should always hose them down before letting them in the house, and shouldn’t be given too much weight until corroborated by other polls. They can be interesting data, but use with caution.

http://firedoglake.com/2010/03/23/new-harris-poll-finds-nearly-one-fourth-of-republicans-believe-obama-may-be-the-antichrist/

Repulicans are tools that are led by the nose, as if they had a ring through it.

The claim that this will reduce costs and/or lower deficits or increase the availability of care is, to be as kind as possible, seriously reality-challenged. But reality was never a big driver in the Dem process of stacking up this sandwich for us, was it? Those were just talking points for persuading the gullible. We could have had the tomatoes without the shit, but they insisted that the shit had to be there. The problem was convincing enough legislators that the public could be fooled into thinking it was really tasty Vegemite™. Yes, it would be nice if this shit sandwich would accomplish all or even most that has been claimed for it by its supporters. It would also be nice if every child were above average, debt never hobbled a nation, and every sunset was enhanced with sparkly fairy dust farted out by flying unicorns.

Acerbic hyperbole aside, I don’t disagree. I was speaking only to the difficulties of trying to repeal HCR as a single piece.Not singing paeans.

Looking at the broad strokes, this HCR law really only addresses the access issue.

It doesn’t substantially address cost issues at all, unless you count reform of medicare advantage or whatever program all that “fraud and waste” rhetoric was about. Best case scenario that provides a bit of savings. As for the rest? The medicare cuts are pretend, most folks think they won’t really happen. The states do not at this point have the funding for their share of the funding cost shifts.

So one way or another, the cost issues are going to have to be addressed. And quickly.

….And despite Justin’s belief that the GOP offered nothing, the Dems did indeed steal some of those tomatoes from the GOP garden — how one can claim that the GOP offered nothing while noting some of their ideas were used in the bill is a puzzle I’ll leave for those who enjoy the contortions of partisan propaganda.

It is really quite simple. They were not GOP ideas. They may be ideas that the GOP can live with or even support (not that they ever would), but just because you find a few things in here that don’t turn your stomach does not make them GOP ideas.

The GOP blew it. They had an opportunity to actually put in ideas, but they were more interested in saying no and hoping the Dems would fail.

Now, in my opinion, this bill is a stinker. As far as I can tell it is nothing but a hand out to big insurance and big pharmaceutical and we’re all on the hook for it.

But that’s not what you are objecting to.

After years of cheerleading as the GOP drove up deficit spending, now suddenly the conservatives are deficit dawgs?

Please.

I wanted the right to make this a better bill. I wanted to see some thoughtful debate. I got tea-party wingnuts calling civil rights heroes and a gay congressman bad names, confused simpletons decrying government health care as socialism with cries of keep your hands off my medicare and hypocritical cries of spending too much.

The right hasn’t made a single good HONEST argument about this bill and that is why they are a failure today. They have no real complaints, they have no real answers and ultimately they have no clue.

Why, yes, the shit sandwich does have some nice fresh sliced tomatoes on it. And despite Justin’s belief that the GOP offered nothing, the Dems did indeed steal some of those tomatoes from the GOP garden — how one can claim that the GOP offered nothing while noting some of their ideas were used in the bill is a puzzle I’ll leave for those who enjoy the contortions of partisan propaganda. (BTW, Justin, the three committee chairs that guided the construction of this bill did indeed shut out the GOP in the construction of this bill. Please do read the actual records. Nothing like base data to offset a steady diet of talking points.)

But in the end it’s still a shit sandwich. The GOP will ignore the tomatoes and try to scrape the shit off of the sandwich. As would the Dems if this had been a GOP bill. They’d just differ on which parts were juicy tomatoes and which were raw fertilizer.

The unfunded Medicaid mandates alone in this bill will impose $50B/yr or more in costs on the states, many of which are already bankrupt. The Medicare cuts will likely never take place — add back in another $60-80B/yr in costs, minimum. If the cuts remain, expect a reduction of at least 20% in providers who will accept Medicare patients. And a closure rate of hospitals of around 30% or more over a decade as their base revenues fall below requirements to stay open. (That’ll cheer the senior voting bloc up and get them voting Dem, eh?) That doesn’t count the effects/cost of the unfunded mandates on the private sector.

The claim that this will reduce costs and/or lower deficits or increase the availability of care is, to be as kind as possible, seriously reality-challenged. But reality was never a big driver in the Dem process of stacking up this sandwich for us, was it? Those were just talking points for persuading the gullible. We could have had the tomatoes without the shit, but they insisted that the shit had to be there. The problem was convincing enough legislators that the public could be fooled into thinking it was really tasty Vegemite™. Yes, it would be nice if this shit sandwich would accomplish all or even most that has been claimed for it by its supporters. It would also be nice if every child were above average, debt never hobbled a nation, and every sunset was enhanced with sparkly fairy dust farted out by flying unicorns.

BTW, Megan McArdle has a nice list of objective predictions, some of which one can use in the future to compare with the arguments used to sell us the shit Vegemite™ part of the sandwich. Anyone care to wager on how many she gets right? I’ll take her side on #5 and #6 for this year alone, with a running buy on both annual and running average on #6 for future years, with a “push” on #6 if overt rationing of health care is imposed. The rest will take much longer to settle, but I’ll still back them.

@KK

“Repeal alongside a “replacement bill” is really more like reform, right?”

I am not exactly sure where you are are coming from with that, but I don’t have a problem with your analysis. Of course, we are all just pulling this stuff out of our nether regions when talking about 2012 – but we’re blogging so why not?

My best guess is that the language will have changed by 2012. We won’t be talking about “repeal, replace or reform” – that’s a 2010 meme. In 2012 the urgent question is going to be “How do we fix this piece of crap.”. And that question is going to be asked as much by Democrats and liberals as Republicans and conservatives. I can almost write Obama’s speech right now. Think Bush in 2005-2006 on WMD’s and Iraq. “We don’t need to be looking backward – we need to be looking forward.”

As far as there being a constituency that likes the FREE MONEY! benefits under this bill – sure – they’ll be there and voting for Obama. And it very well may be enough to get him re-elected. I am fine with that, as long as the Senate elections play out as I expect. If the GOP picks up a net additional 6-8 seats in the Senate this year as it looks like they might, it is a foregone conclusion that they will retake the majority in 2012. The reason is simple- in 2012 23 Dem seats will up for reelection and 10 Republican seats. That is a crushing structural advantage for the GOP. Dems have a lot more to defend and Reps have a target rich environment. They’ll easily pick up 4-6 more to take the majority. I don’t know what happens in the House. It’s a coin flip.

With Obama in the White House, a Republican majority in the Senate, and an undeniable healthcare, deficit & entitlement crisis staring us in the face – the problems with this bill will then get fixed. Because there won’t be any choice. Think Clinton/Gingrich and Welfare Reform.

That is as much HOPE as I can muster.

CAPTCHA: the blunders

New Poll to be released tomorrow, but a leak on The Daily Beast today:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-03-22/scary-new-gop-poll/

•45 percent of Republicans (25 percent overall) agree with the Birthers in their belief that Obama was “not born in the United States and so is not eligible to be president”

And just for giggles,

•57 percent of Republicans (32 percent overall) believe that Obama is a Muslim

Feel better?

Little too much trouble to click on the link?

36 said he is NOT
22 said theya re NOT SURE

The poll was very specific; I was not.

36 believing he is not is embarrassing; 22 percent not being sure does not lessen that embarrassment by much.

No entitlement program that has been passed in this country by congress has ever been repealed and that will apply to this one as well. The reason why there is so much opposition to the bill among the general public is that most of the general public hasn’t got a clue what is really in the bill because Dems have failed to communicate it to the people and the Republicans have succeeded in clouding the truth with false pictures of Death Panels hunting down Grandma among other things.

If the GOP was smart, and currently they don’t seem to be any smarter than the Dems, which is sad, then they would work to fix the bill instead of running on a platform of outright repeal, which they will never be able to accomplish anyhow.

All the Dems need to do in order to use this against the GOP is point out the good parts of the bill, as others have all ready talked about.

Gerry, the problem with Frum’s article isn’t that he is or isn’t conservative enough, or anything like that. I have a very positive view of Frum as a general matter. The problem with his article is that his analysis is deeply flawed, overstating the factors that support his thesis and completely ignoring those cutting against it. See my comment yesterday.

As to the poll: as you note, it’s published by Daily Kos, and that’s a red flag. But it was conducted by Opinion 2000, and I have no knowledge of them at all. From a very quick Google search, they seem reputable to the extent that theoretically nonpartisan sources have used them often, although it seems that they were way off in their calls on the 2008 Wisconsin Primary and the 2009 Massachusetts special election. They’re calling the 2012 nomination for Sarah Palin, which seems extravagant. In sum, there’s reason to take their data with a pinch of salt, but it isn’t obviously flawed, so let’s accept it for sake of argument. You are playing accounting tricks in saying that “58 percent of self-described Republicans in this poll either believe Obama was not born in the US or are not sure if he was….” True enough, but as KK’s comment above alludes to, your summarization obscures the data. 36% answered “no” to the question “Do you believe Barack Obama was born in the United States, or not?” 22% were “unsure,” a blanket term that can mean anything from “I don’t care” to “I don’t know” to “I don’t understand the question.” I think that all told, I’ll take 36% as a (surprisingly high) opening bid, but I’d like to see more polls from better-known sources that corroborate that number.

One big problem for any attempt at outright repeal will be components of the current reform that various constiuencies really like, like the exchange, tax breaks for small businesses, ending denial of coverage for pre-existing conditions, and so on.

That leaves the GOP stuck explaining how they want to save all the good bits, which of course leaves them admitting that there really ARE good bits. And leaves them talking about the replacement reform, which would include all the bits that have shown themselves popular. Which will raise the question of why the GOP was so steadfastly oppositinal during the crafting of the original legislation.

Now, presuming repeal is still on the table come 2012, that would leave just about every American who stands to benefit from the new law determined to vote against the GOP presidential candidate promising repeal. That’s a pretty big eight ball to start behind. The dems will have as bedrock supporters:

•everyone who supports this HC reform law in general

• a healthy proportion of parents of children aged 18-26

• all the people who would never ever vote for any republican, which substantially but not completely overlaps the first category

•80 or 90% of black voters

•everyone who is still mad about the Iraq invasion

• all college students who don’t want trouble with their student loans because that was slapped into the HCR law.

See where I’m going with that?

So, who in the GOP really is willing to go to the mattresses for HC repeal? We can presume that this will still be a popular idea among conservative circles, which could make it de rigeur for any GOP nom hopeful. Which, as previously noted could well leave the eventual GOP nominee dead in the water come fall 2012.

58 percent of self-described Republicans in this poll either believe Obama was not born in the US or are not sure if he was

Frankly, this is meaningless unless we know what fraction is “not sure.” Fact is, most folks don’t pay the sort of close attention that wonks do. Given that, all the honest folks not paying close attention would answer “not sure.”

Any poll that combines two categories in the way this one does is trying to push the results to create a particular impression. I am highly critical of this practice no matter who does it.

@Simon: My question was directed at the notion of using history as a guide for handicapping the odds of success for your stated goal. To my knowledge, quick repeals of major legislation are a surpassingly rare thing, But I really haven’t paid very close attention to it. Few repeals come to mind based on my limited knowledge.

That’s really what I am asking you, what does history say about your chances? is this as rare a thing as I think it is?

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/1/31/US/437

58 percent of self-described Republicans in this poll either believe Obama was not born in the US or are not sure if he was (this after numerous stories published everywhere but Fox News show he IS a born US Citizen.

Now, I’m sure you won’t accept a Daily Kos/Research 2000 Poll as reputable, but even you have to admit unless this poll is an out-right lie those numbers are very –VERY–disturbing.

As for Frum, I am not reciting GOP talking points? Or Frum just isn’t republican enough for you?

Let’s put this on the table now. What makes this bill objectionable? What did the Dems refuse to abandon? Do you seriously think this bill is the one the Dems would have passed if they weren’t trying to reach out?

I agree with your and MW’s assertion that — from a political perspective — there was nothing to be gained by the GOP by trying to work out something. Give the Dems cover as MW put it.

And that is why the GOP can rot in hell. They never once considered what was the best bill, only what was the best political option.

The GOP cares not a whit for the outcome other than whether it puts them back in power. One might argue the same applies to the Dems, but some of this bill is actually going to HELP some people.

You remember that concept, right?