Gallup: Re-Elect Obama? Americans Split

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Democrats, Obama, Polls, Republicans

In early 2011, just half a year away, we’ll be seeing the GOP presidential hopefuls start to jockey for the top spot in earnest. And they’ll be bolstered by Republican gains in the midterms, as well as the perception that the Tea Party movement can turn out the vote come 2012.

What else will bolster them?

Polls like these…

PRINCETON, NJ — U.S. registered voters remain split on whether President Obama deserves to be re-elected in 2012, with 46% saying he does and 51% saying he does not — little changed from earlier this year.

The most recent Obama re-elect measure is similar to the president’s basic job approval rating among all Americans, which was 50% in the June 11-13 USA Today/Gallup poll and 48% in Gallup Daily tracking for the same period.

Here are the numbers…

And here’s how that shakes out when looking at party affiliation…

Still, this doesn’t mean that Obama will lose the election…

However, history shows that much can change in the years prior to a presidential election. Gallup surveys in late April/early May 2002 found 69% of registered voters saying President George W. Bush deserved re-election. This was at a time when Bush’s job approval rating was 77%, reflecting the rally effect that followed the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in New York City and Washington, D.C. By October 2004, just before the election, Bush’s approval had fallen into the 50% range and his “deserves re-election” percentage had dropped to 50%. Bush ended up receiving 51% of the popular vote to John Kerry’s 48%.

Ultimately, I think 2012 will come down to the economy and whether or not Americans will trust Repubs or Dems more.

More as it develops…


This entry was posted on Saturday, June 19th, 2010 and is filed under Barack, Democrats, Obama, Polls, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

8 Responses to “Gallup: Re-Elect Obama? Americans Split”

  1. Tweets that mention Donklephant » Blog Archive » Gallup: Re-Elect Obama? Americans Split -- Topsy.com Says:

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  2. Chris Says:

    The only reason I would vote for him is to keep a republican out of office. plain and simple. I don’t think he’s done that great of a job, but nor has he done a bad job.

  3. kranky kritter Says:

    IMO, re-election polls that don’t pit 2 candidates are not meaningful. In other words, they reflect popularity, not chances of winning. It’s common for polls to say that candidate x should not be re-elected, but for candidate x to poll as beating actual candidates a, b, and c.

    Because real people carry their own negative baggage. If the GOp anoints someone who pleases the angry uncompromising portion of the the conservative right, that will galvanize moderate support for Obama. If they go with someone more moderate, that’ll alienate the tea party and or hard right faction.

    (as always)The GOP needs to find the right candidate who can be attractive to the hardcore without alienating the middle. Who is it? Not Palin, she freaks out moderates. Probly not Romney, because he has been tarred a waffler, and the hard right in not big on forgiving or changing its mind.

    So look for Obama to keep polling weakly whenever its against “the candidate to be named later. And then expect him to win re=election unless the GOP can find the magic all-pleasing candidate.

  4. Nick Benjamin Says:

    The re-elect number isn’t terribly revealing. Especially years from the actual election. It does show that people are quite ambivalent about him right now, which is kinda interesting. And makes sense, given the economic problems we’re experiencing, and the intractable problems in the gulf.

    Other then that it doesn’t show much. He’d probably do better then 50% in any real election held tomorrow, because in reality he’d be facing a person. And people always have flaws.

  5. Lee Thomas Says:

    Joe Biden is out. Hillary Clinton is in.

    I predict here and now that Obama will not run again and that Hillary Clinton will take up the reign as the sitting VP to run for the Democrats in 2012.

    Obama’s reckless nature…..reckless in asking his fellow democrats to put their political lives at stake…..to pass legislation that was unpopular tells me he was always going to be a one term president that got things done.

    He has said as much and I personally look at a man Whom I believe does not like being President, other then the power it gives him to change things to match his vision for America.

  6. downfortennfan Says:

    Joe Biden is out. Hillary Clinton is in.

    I predict here and now that Obama will not run again and that Hillary Clinton will take up the reign as the sitting VP to run for the Democrats in 2012.

    Obama’s reckless nature…..reckless in asking his fellow democrats to put their political lives at stake…..to pass legislation that was unpopular tells me he was always going to be a one term president that got things done.

    He has said as much and I personally look at a man Whom I believe does not like being President, other then the power it gives him to change things to match his vision for America.

    I AGREE

  7. SaneInSF Says:

    “The only reason I would vote for him is to keep a republican out of office. plain and simple”

    Someone obviously needs to use labels because they’re afraid of thinking for themselves.

  8. Mark W Says:

    I’d agree that these numbers don’t accurately forecast what’s to come, voters will be more concerned about how things are/feel ‘now’ next election rather than taking a good look at track records over the term.

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