Election Projection: Romney Within 20 Electoral Votes

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Obama, Polls, Republicans, Romney

What a difference a debate makes! Obama is down from a 60 electoral project lead in Nate Silver’s forecast. Check out the graphs…

So what stopped the bleeding? I think it boils down to two words: Joe Biden. Yeah, he was brash, but he gave folks the kind of doubt they need to take a second look at what Romney/Ryan are really selling. And Romney’s camp hasn’t really landed any strikes OR made any gaffes during that time. It was all the VP debate. At least that’s my most educated guess.

Nate Silver has more on the data coming back from the polling…

For the last week or so, we have been hoping to decode a confusing polling landscape. President Obama still appeared to hold a narrow Electoral College lead on the basis of state-by-state surveys, while national polls were suggestive of a tie or perhaps the slightest edge for Mitt Romney.

If the current polls hold, predicting the election outcome will boil down to making a series of educated guesses about the relationship between state and national polls, and between the Electoral College and the popular vote.

There have been plenty of elections before when the outcome was highly uncertain down the stretch run or on Election Day itself. But I am not sure that there has been one where different types of polls pointed in opposite directions. Anyone in my business who is not a bit terrified by this set of facts is either lying to himself — or he doesn’t know what he’s doing.

There are three ways out of the stalemate. First, the state polls could move toward Mr. Romney. Second, the national polls could move toward Mr. Obama. Or third, we could receive more emphatic evidence that the difference between state polls and national polls in fact reflects a potential difference between the popular vote and the Electoral College. (This latter case, importantly, would require evidence that Mr. Romney was running well in noncompetitive states along with evidence that Mr. Obama was performing well in swing states.)

Basically, it’s anybody’s game at this point…which makes tomorrow’s debate that much more important. If Obama can tie or barely beat Romney, much like Bush did with Kerry in 2004, these numbers are likely to turnaround because the momentum will have shifted slight back towards Obama. But if Romney is the perceived winner yet again…all bets are off.

Are you tuning in?


This entry was posted on Monday, October 15th, 2012 and is filed under Barack, Obama, Polls, Republicans, Romney. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

8 Responses to “Election Projection: Romney Within 20 Electoral Votes”

  1. mw Says:

    Yeah – the electoral math got real complicated now. The simplest way to look at it, is that – realistically it is still all about Ohio, and that gives Obama the solid edge.

    It’s all guesswork now, of course, but still fun to play with the possibilities. I’ve got a feeling that Silver’s 3rd option to explain the National/State poll divergence is the correct one:

    “…third, we could receive more emphatic evidence that the difference between state polls and national polls in fact reflects a potential difference between the popular vote and the Electoral College.”

    I think we are heading for a Romney popular vote majority but Obama wins the Presidency with the electoral majority.

    I also found this scenario an improbable but really interesting possiblility:

    As Mitt Romney continues to make gains in swing state polls in the wake of his dominant debate performance last week, it’s becoming increasingly possible that Americans could wake up on Nov. 7 to a 269-269 Electoral College tie…

    If it did wind up in a tie, Romney would be President as it is a virtual lock that the GOP will hold the majority in the House of Representatives. But if a 269-269 tie is possible, so is a 270-268 victory for either candidate. In this scenario the states that allocate electoral votes proportionally (Maine and Nebraska) would be the difference. Maine allocates it’s 4 electoral votes proportionally by congressional district. If the election is this close, the vote in one Northern Maine congressional district would determine the election. For some reason I find that oddly satisfying.

  2. EndthePain Says:

    The left is desperate now. Damn it they just cant have their Hugo Chavez MSM spin Romney into an evil Hitlerite.

    People look at Romney without the prism of the Hugo Chavez MSM and they see a Clinton like figure who has been successful and turned around everything he ever touched.

    Then they look at this country….the economy….social security…medicare and they have a choice to make.

    Obama is a nice guy….but is he the best thing for the country.

    Im guessing the answer will be a new president in Novemeber and the polling is starting to show that ALINSKY just dont work anymore.

  3. cranky critter Says:

    I think we are heading for a Romney popular vote majority but Obama wins the Presidency with the electoral majority.

    Now THAT would be entertaining. Imagine the giant sucking sound of every partisan in the country changing their opinion on Gore v. Florida at the same time. We’d have the biggest glut on hypocritical horse’s @sses in world history.

  4. mw Says:

    We’d have the biggest glut on hypocritical horse’s @sses in world history.

    Hmmm. Good point. Perhaps we need to get ahead of the curve and start calling attention to the potential pending hypocripocalypse. I fear the sudden simultaneous release of this much psychic hypocrisy might achieve some sort of critical mass with unpredictable consequences … perhaps this is what the Mayans were warning us about.

    [Just want to stake my claim to inventing the hypocripocalypse term before we see it headlining a new segment on the Daily Show]

    Google:

    Did you mean: hypocrisy apocalypse

    No results containing all your search terms were found.

    Your search – hypocripocalypse – did not match any documents.

  5. mw Says:

    We’d have the biggest glut on hypocritical horse’s @sses in world history.

    Hmmm. Good point. Perhaps we need to get ahead of the curve and start calling attention to the potential pending hypocripocalypse. I fear the sudden simultaneous release of this much psychic hypocrisy might achieve some sort of critical mass with unpredictable consequences … perhaps this is what the Mayans were warning us about.

    [Just want to stake my claim to inventing the hypocripocalypse term before we see it headlining a new segment on the Daily Show]

    Google:

    Did you mean: hypocrisy apocalypse

    No results containing all your search terms were found.

    Your search – hypocripocalypse – did not match any documents.

  6. EndthePain Says:

    RCP has Romney ahead electorally today. 206-201.

    The last two days Gallup has Romeny up by 6 and 7 points. Rasmussen has it 49-47 with basically 2 percent undecided.

    Basically the message is getting though despite the Hugo Chavez MSM trying to muddle the waters.

    It could be a close election but I think that the message is getting out and the Obama administration is being caught in one lie after another lie after another……Everything he promised has gone unfulfilled and we are still sitting at the exact same unemployment rate today as we did when he took office.

    Remember this is an administration who told us a long time ago to get used to high unemployment. They werent kidding and the jokes not funny anymore.

    EPA war. War on coal. War on Oil. War on the Rich. War on Wall Street. The backbone of America. A nation runs on energy. Every Nation. France chose Nuclear. America chose, Oil, Natural Gas and coal. The Obama administration is at war with Oil….Natural Gas and Coal.

    And why. Climate gate proved to most that Global warming is all a made up hoax. So why go to war with Oil and gas and Coal?

    Its showing in the Polls. People are starting to see that this administration has NO plan thats workable and being unemployed for 4 years isnt funny anymore.

    Wheres the jobs Mr. President. Clinton’s Campaign advisior in 1992 was right. “Its the economy stupid.”

    Barak Obama is running on He ain’t Romney….Just like Kerry Ran on He ain’t Bush and lost.

    .

  7. Angela Says:

    End the pain, why ask the question “where are the jobs Mr. Obama?”. Is it not the philosophy of conservatives that government keep its hands out of the market so the market can do its thing? You’re referring to the job market which in my view is suffering in part because of weak or ineffective policies put in place all in the name of globalization and the potential opportunity costs of failing to penetrate foreign markets. Our economy more than ever is affected by global markets, which intensifies the influence of economic sectors which are strictly domestic. (i.e. housing market) We can keep hammering nails into planks to fix the hole in the wall here at home, but the prevailing winds are just too strong, its futile. Unless we first define the problem accurately, we cannot begin to formulate the right solution.

  8. Angela Says:

    To make a positive change, both issues need to be addressed, our trade policies, and our domestic economic policies. We need to change things on both ends. And thats the problem with our 2 party system. It seems either the dems or repubs take a position on one or the other side and are unwilling to tackle an issue from all angles.

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