I thought his moderate conservative credentials were a sign that he’d provide some good leadership within the party, but he’s floundering…big time.

Take the latest advice from the GOP chairman….

Speaking at a Republican fundraiser in Maryland Tuesday night, Steele said the GOP needs to emulate him and be “unconventional, unpredictable…to do from time to time the unexpected,” according to the Baltimore Sun. [...]

Steele acknowledged Tuesday that he has managed to “tick off” some within the party, but brushed off that criticism.

“Someone told me this whole chairmanship thing would be a cakewalk,” he joked.

At first I had some sympathy for him because he was trying to move Republicans in a much needed moderate direction, but now it’s obvious he’s simply not up for the job. There’s no leadership here, only one mistake after another And now he’s offering this as strategic advice to the GOP in what seems to be an attempt to cover his own mistakes?

I’m filing this post under the not-often-used “Boy Was I Wrong” category. And as much as it pains me to say the following, because I do think Republicans need to wake up to the reality that is our current socio-economic climate, the GOP needs to run far away from this guy if they want to maintain any sort of credibility.

Moving on…

“As long as she wins the popular vote The Story stays intact. The Story is all that matters to her campaign now. The Story that Clinton wins all the big states except Illinois. The Story that momentum has shifted. The Story that Hillary Clinton is the new “comeback kid“. That story is all that is needed to provide political cover for the superdelegates to vote for Clinton at the convention. Even a 200 elected delegate lead for Obama is the equivalent of a dead even tie, as long as The Story is intact.”

The Story indeed remained intact after the Ohio and Texas primary. The Story remained intact after the Pennsylvania primary. Last night, in North Carolina and Indiana, The Story turned into Humpty Dumpty, and came tumbling down. Although she finished with a narrow victory in Indiana, her momentum was broken, and more importantly, the popular vote plurality is now out of reach. Obama’s big popular vote victory in North Carolina, combined with her razor thin margin of victory in Indiana, means that the Michigan and Florida totals no longer matter.

Even if Clinton includes Michigan and Florida in her totals, Obama will finish with a popular vote plurality. The Obama campaign can now be magnanimous, agree to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations, count the votes, and it still does not matter. With no momentum and no popular vote plurality, there is no story. With no story, there is nothing to keep the superdelegates from declaring for Obama. Humpty Dumpty is not getting put back together.

Oh, and along the way I may have a made a few predictions that proved to be, um… what’s the word I am looking for? Wrong. And Justin made some predictions that were right.

In that same February post, we quoted Mary Matlin on Meet the Press with this refinement to the The Story:

“If she wins both states, even fractionally, she can say he [Obama] can’t close the deal.” – Mary Matlin

He didn’t close the deal in Ohio, Texas, and the media began asking the question posed by Mary Matlin. He didn’t close the deal in Pennsylvania despite outspending Clinton three to one, and more questions were asked. Last night, Obama closed the deal. No more questions. We have a presumptive Democratic Party nominee.

A few additional thoughts on last night’s results …

Despite the fact that the leaked Feb 5th Obama campaign strategy memo said that Obama expected to win Indiana by 7 points, and despite the fact that Obama called Indiana a “tiebreaker” two weeks ago, the Clinton campaign badly mismanaged the “expectation” game. Hillary herself must take much of the blame with her “game-changer” comment last Friday.

In the same MTP show with Mary Matlin, Mike Murphy explained an interesting Clinton campaign phenomena:

“She’s got one thing working for her, that is the near death experience phenomena this year – every time it looks like the perils of Pauline., the trains coming, she has a rescue.” - Mike Murphy

In Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania the Clintons explicitly stated that if they did not win, the race was over. The voters chose to continue the contest. In Indiana and North Carolina, Clinton told the voters that they could “change the game” and give her the nomination. The voters chose to end the contest in Obama’s favor.

Finally, we learned that in 2008, Rush Limbaugh using his radio pulpit to rally his audience in support any Presidential candidate, whether Republican or Democrat, is the kiss of death. He called for his “dittoheads” to support Romney over McCain, and failed. Strike one. He called for his “dittoheads” to vote for Clinton over Obama to extend the nomination process, and failed. Strike two.

McCain can only hope and pray that Rush Limbaugh keeps his word and supports the Democratic nominee over McCain in the general election.

^{X-posted from “Divided We Stand United We Fall“}

If you haven’t heard it before, it bears repeating.

From Ambinder:

If, say, voting ends and the press discovers that Obama has a secret second family in Idaho and all his superdelegates abandon him; if, for some reason, she wins 75% of the popular vote in the states after Ohio and Texas and half the remaining superdelegates; if, by slow attrition, [she] closes the delegate gap to about 70 and picks off two thirds of the remaining superdelegates; if the pledged (Obama) delegates concur with the credentials committee and seat the (Clintonian) Florida and Michigan delegations — then, yes, it’s possible.

Sounds doable to me!

Two polls show Hillary closing the gap and even leading in Texas.

First, Public Policy Polling (pdf) shows Hill with 50% to Obama’s 44%.

Then, Rasumuseen shows a dead heat:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey, conducted Sunday, finds Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Hillary Clinton. It’s Obama 48% Clinton 47%. Five percent (5%) are undecided and 6% say they could still change their mind.

These results show the race has gotten a bit closer in the past few days. Last week, Obama enjoyed a four-point lead and the Illinois Senator had been gaining ground steadily for two weeks. Now, it appears that Clinton has at least temporarily halted Obama’s momentum. It remains to be seen whether she car reverse it.

Things are getting interesting!

UPDATE:
I added an “I Told You So” tag to this post, just in case mw’s predictions prove to be right. And if Hillary wins, look for his post with the title, “Nana-Nana Boo Boo.” It’s sure to be filled with humility and deference.

UPDATE 2:
Commenter “kritter” suggests a “Boy Was I Wrong” tag. This too is for mw. :-D