Without leaners
Obama – 46%
McCain – 46%

Is the bounce over? The numbers would suggest they are as McCain drops a point in the “with leaners” numbers.

But what about that all important female vote?

Rasmussen Reports polling has consistently shown a similar result, but it is important to note that there is nothing unusual about this finding. Four years ago, President Bush managed to defeat Senator John Kerry 55% to 44% among white women. Today’s tracking poll data shows McCain leading 51% to 44% among this group.

Among all women, Obama leads by eight. Among men, McCain leads by eight.

As stated yesterday, if McCain can maintain this tie it will be a great conclusion for him from the convention. But if he drops to 3 points behind, like he was before both conventions, the RNC basically did very little for him when it comes to the national popular vote. But the same is true for Obama.

The 5 day w/leaners:
09/10/2008: McCain – 47%, Obama – 48%
09/09/2008: McCain – 48%, Obama – 48%
09/08/2008: McCain – 48%, Obama – 47%
09/07/2008: McCain – 48%, Obama – 48%
09/06/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 49%

The 5 day w/o leaners:
09/10/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 46%
09/09/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 46%
09/08/2008: McCain – 47%, Obama – 46%
09/07/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 46%
09/06/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 46%

More tomorrow…

We won’t know the full extent of McCain’s bounce until Monday, but Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight had this to say yesterday…

From what best I can tell (and this is not an exact science) the one-night results from yesterday’s tracking polls showed something like a 1-2 point Obama lead. If — and this is a big if — that is the extent of the GOP bounce, this is a somewhat underwhelming result for them.

Last night and tonight should be among the best individual nights of polling that the Republicans see all year. If the best they can do is close the race to a tie, or an Obama +1 on those nights, they are not going to win the race based on inertia alone.

Gallup and Rasmussen show some tightening today, but McCain is having trouble cracking much higher than 45% in either poll. Meanwhile, Obama hit 51% in the middle of his bounce last week.

And yes, it was widely reported by the media that Palin’s speech was a hit, but is that really how it played across the country?

More as it develops…

The details…

Support for Obama since just before the Democratic National Convention kicked off on Aug. 25 has ranged from 44% to 50%, while McCain’s support has ranged from 41% to 46%. Whereas the race was initially tied at 45%, Obama pulled into an eight-point lead at several points over the course of his convention. It now appears the Republican National Convention may be helping McCain to recoup some of his losses, though with Obama’s current four-point lead, the entire convention period to this point has still been a net plus for Obama.

Will McCain be on top on Monday? Because that will be the true test.

We shall see…

First things first…

McCain’s speech last night was probably one of the best I’ve ever seen him give. But having said that it still wasn’t a well delivered speech. Much like Kerry in 2004 and Gore in 2000, he just doesn’t have it, and that’s not something he can really help at this point. His policy proposals read more like a laundry list instead of a comprehensive vision. Basically, John McCain is John McCain and you’re going to have to get past the delivery and the stumbles to hear the message.

So what about that message?

Well, as mentioned, the speech wasn’t really heavy on policy specifics so it didn’t really paint a complete picture in that regard. However, a call to Americans to do more than just shop and consume is what I’ve been waiting for McCain to say to a convention hall full of Republicans. His speech basically framed the Republican platform as less about capitalism and more about national service making people believe in ideals greater than themselves. Essentially, America can make you a better person if you let it. And while that seems like a fairly statist POV, wrapping that message in his own life story was extremely effective and very compelling to me on a strictly personal level.

So why will the speech ultimately fall flat for most voters?

Because McCain has been using his POW story as a default answer for too many questions the past 20 months. If he had held off during the campaign and never talked about the POW story in depth, last night would have been a watershed moment. We would have finally had an intimate view into this man, his story and why that makes him tick. We would have had a reason to believe that he truly would put “Country First.” We would have held him as the gold standard for public servants.

But that’s not what happened. And the only person John McCain can blame is himself.

Still, I want to stress that I LOVED his call to service. And for that reason alone, if McCain somehow becomes President, a focus on national service would definitely be a bright spot. Just so long as we don’t end up with a draft.

However, I have to admit that one of the side effects of talking so much about national service is that it made me even angrier at the Bush administration for not asking more from us post 9/11 except buy into their awful reasoning for going to war. But that’s not McCain’s fault.

And one last thing…about his policy proposals…was it my imagination or did he talk about wage insurance? If so, that seems like a BIG break from traditional Republican ideals.

Maybe he is a maverick after all.

By contrast, Obama’s speech pulled in 38.3 million viewers.

So all eyes were definitely on her as folks tried to gain some insight into the who, what, why, where and how of Palin.

Here’s more…

That’s 55% higher than Day 3 of the DNC, when her Democratic counterpart, Joe Biden, and President Clinton took the stage (24 million).

It’s also up a sharp 99% from the Republican convention’s third day in 2004 (18.7 million) and easily bests the numbers viewers attracted by George W. Bush when he accepted the nomination (27.6 million). In fact, it came close to upsetting Obama’s historic address last Thursday — the most-watched convention speech in history (38.4 million viewers).

Palin’s viewership is up 73% from Tuesday’s RNC tally, when 21.5 million tuned in to see President Bush and independent Sen. Joe Lieberman endorse nominee John McCain. The event also drew more female viewers than Hillary Clinton’s speech last week.

Interesting to see that she pulled in more viewers than Hillary’s speech, but, again, I think this has a lot more to do with the idea that nobody knows who this person is.

We shall see…

• Why give a speech that was really designed to rally the Republican base when John McCain consistently gets more Republican support than Obama gets Democratic support?
• Why go on the attack with petty snipes at Obama when you have the chance to frame yourself as a true, transformative political figure and rise above it all?
• Why tell everybody about John McCain? Everybody already knows about John McCain. He was a POW. He’s a maverick. We get that. But we know pretty much ZERO about you. This was your time and all we really get to know was what the McCain campaign has already told us.
• Why not give us a sense of how you see America and where it needs to go? After all, the Republican party is supposed to be the party of ideas. I now know a lot of what you don’t like, but why not tell me what you do like?
• Do you really think people want to vote for a pitbull? I know it seemed like a clever line at the time, but let’s not forget that the reason Hillary Clinton lost to Obama is she didn’t show her softer side. Once she did, BAM, she won New Hampshire. In other words, the “street fighter” card isn’t really working this year. We all assume you’re tough if you’re in politics, so maybe show us something different?

But Sarah, don’t just take my word for it…listen to these Independent voters in Michigan…

“I was completely underwhelmed. She was a Republican novelty act with a sophomoric script. It was not even a speech I would expect for a someone running for the local PTA, much less for vice president.”

– George Lentz, 66, Southfield independent

“Who is Sarah Palin? I’m sorry but I still don’t know anymore about this young lady tonight than I did last night … The way it looks to me, she’s the Republican vice presidential nominee for one reason: because Hillary wasn’t selected.”

– Mike Kosh, 38, West Bloomfield independent

“Sarah Palin is a self-described ‘pitbull with lipstick.’ She spent little time helping Americans learn who she is. She is a cool, poised speaker, but her speech contained few statements about policy or the party platform. … I am not convinced that Palin’s experience as a mayor or governor in Alaska meet the qualifications to be vice president much less one stroke or heart attack away from being commander in chief.”

– Ilene Beninson, 52, Berkley independent

“Nothing worked for me. I found her barrage of snide remarksand distortions to be a major turn off. She is not a class act. The most important point she made is that she will be an effective attack dog.”

– Jan Wheelock, 58, Royal Oak independent

Yes, just a few voices, but my guess is that the large majority of independents want to see a lot more out of you than the speech you gave if you have ANY chance of winning their vote. In fact, you may have lost a good portion of them last night.

And remember, Obama is actually offering “hope.” Whether it’s false hope has yet to be determined, but folks are probably more willing to bet on that then more partisan attacks from somebody who they believe has less experience than Obama.

In any event, good luck!

The details…

Thursday’s interviewing will be the first to reflect the immediate impact of Palin’s speech, and the coming days will give a truer measure of the effect the GOP convention — including McCain’s acceptance speech tonight — is having on voters. Obama got a four percentage point increase in his share of the vote in Gallup Poll Daily tracking coming out of the Democratic convention last week, establishing a lead over McCain after the two had been exactly tied immediately prior to last week’s convention.

More tomorrow…

I’ll have more tomorrow, but for now I’ll leave you with this one question: do you think this speech swayed any independent women?

Discuss.

On her experience as a public servant:

“I had the privilege of living most of my life in a small town. I was just your average hockey mom, and signed up for the PTA because I wanted to make my kids’ public education better. When I ran for city council, I didn’t need focus groups and voter profiles because I knew those voters, and knew their families, too. Before I became governor of the great state of Alaska, I was mayor of my hometown. And since our opponents in this presidential election seem to look down on that experience, let me explain to them what the job involves. I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a ‘community organizer,’ except that you have actual responsibilities.”

On why she is going to Washington, D.C.:

“I’m not a member of the permanent political establishment. And I’ve learned quickly, these past few days, that if you’re not a member in good standing of the Washington elite, then some in the media consider a candidate unqualified for that reason alone. But here’s a little news flash for all those reporters and commentators: I’m not going to Washington to seek their good opinion – I’m going to Washington to serve the people of this country.”

On energy policies that the McCain-Palin administration will implement:

“Our opponents say, again and again, that drilling will not solve all of America’s energy problems – as if we all didn’t know that already. But the fact that drilling won’t solve every problem is no excuse to do nothing at all. Starting in January, in a McCain-Palin administration, we’re going to lay more pipelines…build more nuclear plants…create jobs with clean coal…and move forward on solar, wind, geothermal, and other alternative sources. We need American energy resources, brought to you by American ingenuity, and produced by American workers.”

On John McCain:

“Here’s how I look at the choice Americans face in this election. In politics, there are some candidates who use change to promote their careers. And then there are those, like John McCain, who use their careers to promote change.”

As I’ve said the past few days, until Palin actually answers the legitimate questions being posed to her, attacking the media is thin gruel. Some voters might buy that, but not many. Because people are still thinking to themselves, “Who is this person?” and that question needs to be answered before they’ll switch.

But will Palin’s lack of experience actually hurt Obama by bringing up parallels between the two? I don’t think so and here’s why…McCain has never had a problem being perceived as more experienced than Obama. But what he does have a problem with is enthusiasm and Palin essentially saying she’s not really all that experienced either won’t exactly make voters stream to the polls to usher in a McCain presidency.

And honestly, the only person who will be able to make voters excited about a McCain presidency will be John McCain himself. So, in that regard, his campaign has put too much heavy lifting on Sarah Palin’s speech tonight for it to succeed in the way it’s designed to.

More soon…

Without leaners
Obama – 48%
McCain – 43%

Not much change since yesterday, with Obama/Biden dropping one in the “with leaners” numbers, but still maintaining a significant lead over McCain/Palin.

Something interesting…both Prez candidates seemed to have lost ground after their VP selections…

With the two conventions back-to-back, the two Vice-Presidential picks so close together, and Hurricane Gustav in the middle, it’s difficult to put the convention bounces in context. Both Obama and McCain lost a little ground in the polls after announcing their Vice President running mate. Obama lost three points after the Joe Biden selection was announced and McCain lost two points after Palin was announced.

Of note, Biden probably won’t have much additional effect on the numbers. On the other hand, Palin’s background keeps producing one story after another, some of which probably would have disqualified a presidential candidate from even being seriously considered. She could possibly wipe all of that away with a strong showing tonight at her acceptance speech.

Is she ready for prime time?

The 5 day w/leaners:
09/03/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 50%
09/02/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 51%
09/01/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 49%
08/31/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 49%
08/30/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 49%

The 5 day w/o leaners:
09/03/2008: McCain – 43%, Obama – 48%
09/02/2008: McCain – 43%, Obama – 48%
09/01/2008: McCain – 44%, Obama – 47%
08/31/2008: McCain – 44%, Obama – 47%
08/30/2008: McCain – 43%, Obama – 47%

More tomorrow…

(Sorry folks, I had the numbers for “with leaners” transposed in both today and yesterday’s posts. Obama now leads in both.)

The details…

Obama’s significant lead over McCain almost certainly reflects the effects of the Democratic National Convention. The two presidential candidates were tied at 45% in the last Gallup Poll Daily tracking results conducted entirely before the convention began. The latest results include interviews from Tuesday through Thursday night, though most of the interviewing was conducted before Obama’s acceptance speech late Thursday.

Gallup has measured the convention bounce for candidates in previous years by comparing the last poll conducted entirely before the convention began with the first poll conducted entirely after the convention concludes. That historical calculation is complicated this year by the intense media focus on McCain’s selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate on Friday, and the increasing focus on next week’s Republican National Convention.

The big question now: what effect will Palin have on HRC fans? Can she bring them over as this pick is designed to do? Or does she simply undercut McCain’s “experience” message?

More as it develops…

Of note, I’ve always thought that Todd is one of the savvier, intellectually honest pundits out there. Perhaps even more so than the late Tim Russert. So something tells me that his will be the consensus opinion come tomorrow.

We shall see…

What impressed me so much about this speech is Obama essentially reframed the American Dream tonight as something we can all share if we believe in the liberal traditions of fairness and equality.

So call him a fake and a phony all you want. But tonight he called upon the middle class to take back a country that hasn’t been working for them. And I have a feeling they’re going to do just that.

This is it folks…

+++++

To Chairman Dean and my great friend Dick Durbin; and to all my fellow citizens of this great nation;

With profound gratitude and great humility, I accept your nomination for the presidency of the United States.

Let me express my thanks to the historic slate of candidates who accompanied me on this journey, and especially the one who traveled the farthest — a champion for working Americans and an inspiration to my daughters and to yours — Hillary Rodham Clinton. To President Clinton, who last night made the case for change as only he can make it; to Ted Kennedy, who embodies the spirit of service; and to the next vice president of the United States, Joe Biden, I thank you. I am grateful to finish this journey with one of the finest statesmen of our time, a man at ease with everyone from world leaders to the conductors on the Amtrak train he still takes home every night.

To the love of my life, our next first lady, Michelle Obama, and to Sasha and Malia — I love you so much, and I’m so proud of all of you.

Four years ago, I stood before you and told you my story — of the brief union between a young man from Kenya and a young woman from Kansas who weren’t well-off or well-known, but shared a belief that in America, their son could achieve whatever he put his mind to.

It is that promise that has always set this country apart — that through hard work and sacrifice, each of us can pursue our individual dreams but still come together as one American family, to ensure that the next generation can pursue their dreams as well.

That’s why I stand here tonight. Because for 232 years, at each moment when that promise was in jeopardy, ordinary men and women — students and soldiers, farmers and teachers, nurses and janitors — found the courage to keep it alive.

We meet at one of those defining moments — a moment when our nation is at war, our economy is in turmoil, and the American promise has been threatened once more.

Tonight, more Americans are out of work and more are working harder for less. More of you have lost your homes and even more are watching your home values plummet. More of you have cars you can’t afford to drive, credit card bills you can’t afford to pay, and tuition that’s beyond your reach.

These challenges are not all of government’s making. But the failure to respond is a direct result of a broken politics in Washington and the failed policies of George W. Bush.

America, we are better than these last eight years. We are a better country than this.

This country is more decent than one where a woman in Ohio, on the brink of retirement, finds herself one illness away from disaster after a lifetime of hard work.

This country is more generous than one where a man in Indiana has to pack up the equipment he’s worked on for 20 years and watch it shipped off to China, and then chokes up as he explains how he felt like a failure when he went home to tell his family the news.

We are more compassionate than a government that lets veterans sleep on our streets and families slide into poverty; that sits on its hands while a major American city drowns before our eyes.

Tonight, I say to the American people, to Democrats and Republicans and independents across this great land — enough! This moment — this election — is our chance to keep, in the 21st century, the American promise alive. Because next week, in Minnesota, the same party that brought you two terms of George Bush and Dick Cheney will ask this country for a third. And we are here because we love this country too much to let the next four years look like the last eight. On November 4, we must stand up and say: “Eight is enough.”

Now let there be no doubt. The Republican nominee, John McCain, has worn the uniform of our country with bravery and distinction, and for that we owe him our gratitude and respect. And next week, we’ll also hear about those occasions when he’s broken with his party as evidence that he can deliver the change that we need.

But the record’s clear: John McCain has voted with George Bush 90 percent of the time. Sen. McCain likes to talk about judgment, but really, what does it say about your judgment when you think George Bush has been right more than 90 percent of the time? I don’t know about you, but I’m not ready to take a 10 percent chance on change.

The truth is, on issue after issue that would make a difference in your lives — on health care and education and the economy — Sen. McCain has been anything but independent. He said that our economy has made “great progress” under this president. He said that the fundamentals of the economy are strong. And when one of his chief advisers — the man who wrote his economic plan — was talking about the anxiety Americans are feeling, he said that we were just suffering from a “mental recession,” and that we’ve become, and I quote, “a nation of whiners.”

A nation of whiners? Tell that to the proud autoworkers at a Michigan plant who, after they found out it was closing, kept showing up every day and working as hard as ever, because they knew there were people who counted on the brakes that they made. Tell that to the military families who shoulder their burdens silently as they watch their loved ones leave for their third or fourth or fifth tour of duty. These are not whiners. They work hard and give back and keep going without complaint. These are the Americans that I know.

Now, I don’t believe that Sen. McCain doesn’t care what’s going on in the lives of Americans. I just think he doesn’t know. Why else would he define middle-class as someone making under $5 million a year? How else could he propose hundreds of billions in tax breaks for big corporations and oil companies but not one penny of tax relief to more than 100 million Americans? How else could he offer a health care plan that would actually tax people’s benefits, or an education plan that would do nothing to help families pay for college, or a plan that would privatize Social Security and gamble your retirement?

It’s not because John McCain doesn’t care. It’s because John McCain doesn’t get it.

For over two decades, he’s subscribed to that old, discredited Republican philosophy — give more and more to those with the most and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else. In Washington, they call this the Ownership Society, but what it really means is — you’re on your own. Out of work? Tough luck. No health care? The market will fix it. Born into poverty? Pull yourself up by your own bootstraps — even if you don’t have boots. You’re on your own.

Well it’s time for them to own their failure. It’s time for us to change America.

You see, we Democrats have a very different measure of what constitutes progress in this country.

We measure progress by how many people can find a job that pays the mortgage; whether you can put a little extra money away at the end of each month so you can someday watch your child receive her college diploma. We measure progress in the 23 million new jobs that were created when Bill Clinton was president — when the average American family saw its income go up $7,500 instead of down $2,000 like it has under George Bush.

We measure the strength of our economy not by the number of billionaires we have or the profits of the Fortune 500, but by whether someone with a good idea can take a risk and start a new business, or whether the waitress who lives on tips can take a day off to look after a sick kid without losing her job — an economy that honors the dignity of work.

The fundamentals we use to measure economic strength are whether we are living up to that fundamental promise that has made this country great — a promise that is the only reason I am standing here tonight.

Because in the faces of those young veterans who come back from Iraq and Afghanistan, I see my grandfather, who signed up after Pearl Harbor, marched in Patton’s Army, and was rewarded by a grateful nation with the chance to go to college on the GI Bill.

In the face of that young student who sleeps just three hours before working the night shift, I think about my mom, who raised my sister and me on her own while she worked and earned her degree; who once turned to food stamps but was still able to send us to the best schools in the country with the help of student loans and scholarships.

When I listen to another worker tell me that his factory has shut down, I remember all those men and women on the South Side of Chicago who I stood by and fought for two decades ago after the local steel plant closed.

And when I hear a woman talk about the difficulties of starting her own business, I think about my grandmother, who worked her way up from the secretarial pool to middle-management, despite years of being passed over for promotions because she was a woman. She’s the one who taught me about hard work. She’s the one who put off buying a new car or a new dress for herself so that I could have a better life. She poured everything she had into me. And although she can no longer travel, I know that she’s watching tonight, and that tonight is her night as well.

I don’t know what kind of lives John McCain thinks that celebrities lead, but this has been mine. These are my heroes. Theirs are the stories that shaped me. And it is on their behalf that I intend to win this election and keep our promise alive as president of the United States.

What is that promise?

It’s a promise that says each of us has the freedom to make of our own lives what we will, but that we also have the obligation to treat each other with dignity and respect.

It’s a promise that says the market should reward drive and innovation and generate growth, but that businesses should live up to their responsibilities to create American jobs, look out for American workers, and play by the rules of the road.

Ours is a promise that says government cannot solve all our problems, but what it should do is that which we cannot do for ourselves — protect us from harm and provide every child a decent education; keep our water clean and our toys safe; invest in new schools and new roads and new science and technology.

Our government should work for us, not against us. It should help us, not hurt us. It should ensure opportunity not just for those with the most money and influence, but for every American who’s willing to work.

That’s the promise of America — the idea that we are responsible for ourselves, but that we also rise or fall as one nation; the fundamental belief that I am my brother’s keeper; I am my sister’s keeper.

That’s the promise we need to keep. That’s the change we need right now. So let me spell out exactly what that change would mean if I am president.

Change means a tax code that doesn’t reward the lobbyists who wrote it, but the American workers and small businesses who deserve it.

Unlike John McCain, I will stop giving tax breaks to corporations that ship jobs overseas, and I will start giving them to companies that create good jobs right here in America.

I will eliminate capital gains taxes for the small businesses and the start-ups that will create the high-wage, high-tech jobs of tomorrow.

I will cut taxes — cut taxes — for 95 percent of all working families. Because in an economy like this, the last thing we should do is raise taxes on the middle-class.

And for the sake of our economy, our security, and the future of our planet, I will set a clear goal as president: in 10 years, we will finally end our dependence on oil from the Middle East.

Washington’s been talking about our oil addiction for the last 30 years, and John McCain has been there for 26 of them. In that time, he’s said no to higher fuel-efficiency standards for cars, no to investments in renewable energy, no to renewable fuels. And today, we import triple the amount of oil as the day that Sen. McCain took office.

Now is the time to end this addiction, and to understand that drilling is a stop-gap measure, not a long-term solution. Not even close.

As president, I will tap our natural gas reserves, invest in clean coal technology, and find ways to safely harness nuclear power. I’ll help our auto companies re-tool, so that the fuel-efficient cars of the future are built right here in America. I’ll make it easier for the American people to afford these new cars. And I’ll invest $150 billion over the next decade in affordable, renewable sources of energy — wind power and solar power and the next generation of biofuels; an investment that will lead to new industries and 5 million new jobs that pay well and can’t ever be outsourced.

America, now is not the time for small plans.

Now is the time to finally meet our moral obligation to provide every child a world-class education, because it will take nothing less to compete in the global economy. Michelle and I are only here tonight because we were given a chance at an education. And I will not settle for an America where some kids don’t have that chance. I’ll invest in early childhood education. I’ll recruit an army of new teachers, and pay them higher salaries and give them more support. And in exchange, I’ll ask for higher standards and more accountability. And we will keep our promise to every young American — if you commit to serving your community or your country, we will make sure you can afford a college education.

Now is the time to finally keep the promise of affordable, accessible health care for every single American. If you have health care, my plan will lower your premiums. If you don’t, you’ll be able to get the same kind of coverage that members of Congress give themselves. And as someone who watched my mother argue with insurance companies while she lay in bed dying of cancer, I will make certain those companies stop discriminating against those who are sick and need care the most.

Now is the time to help families with paid sick days and better family leave, because nobody in America should have to choose between keeping their jobs and caring for a sick child or ailing parent.

Now is the time to change our bankruptcy laws, so that your pensions are protected ahead of CEO bonuses; and the time to protect Social Security for future generations.

And now is the time to keep the promise of equal pay for an equal day’s work, because I want my daughters to have exactly the same opportunities as your sons.

Now, many of these plans will cost money, which is why I’ve laid out how I’ll pay for every dime — by closing corporate loopholes and tax havens that don’t help America grow. But I will also go through the federal budget, line by line, eliminating programs that no longer work and making the ones we do need work better and cost less — because we cannot meet 21st century challenges with a 20th century bureaucracy.

And Democrats, we must also admit that fulfilling America’s promise will require more than just money. It will require a renewed sense of responsibility from each of us to recover what John F. Kennedy called our “intellectual and moral strength.” Yes, government must lead on energy independence, but each of us must do our part to make our homes and businesses more efficient. Yes, we must provide more ladders to success for young men who fall into lives of crime and despair. But we must also admit that programs alone can’t replace parents; that government can’t turn off the television and make a child do her homework; that fathers must take more responsibility for providing the love and guidance their children need.

Individual responsibility and mutual responsibility — that’s the essence of America’s promise.

And just as we keep our keep our promise to the next generation here at home, so must we keep America’s promise abroad. If John McCain wants to have a debate about who has the temperament, and judgment, to serve as the next commander in chief, that’s a debate I’m ready to have.

For while Sen. McCain was turning his sights to Iraq just days after 9/11, I stood up and opposed this war, knowing that it would distract us from the real threats we face. When John McCain said we could just “muddle through” in Afghanistan, I argued for more resources and more troops to finish the fight against the terrorists who actually attacked us on 9/11, and made clear that we must take out Osama bin Laden and his lieutenants if we have them in our sights. John McCain likes to say that he’ll follow bin Laden to the Gates of Hell — but he won’t even go to the cave where he lives.

And today, as my call for a time frame to remove our troops from Iraq has been echoed by the Iraqi government and even the Bush administration, even after we learned that Iraq has a $79 billion surplus while we’re wallowing in deficits, John McCain stands alone in his stubborn refusal to end a misguided war.

That’s not the judgment we need. That won’t keep America safe. We need a president who can face the threats of the future, not keep grasping at the ideas of the past.

You don’t defeat a terrorist network that operates in 80 countries by occupying Iraq. You don’t protect Israel and deter Iran just by talking tough in Washington. You can’t truly stand up for Georgia when you’ve strained our oldest alliances. If John McCain wants to follow George Bush with more tough talk and bad strategy, that is his choice — but it is not the change we need.

We are the party of Roosevelt. We are the party of Kennedy. So don’t tell me that Democrats won’t defend this country. Don’t tell me that Democrats won’t keep us safe. The Bush-McCain foreign policy has squandered the legacy that generations of Americans — Democrats and Republicans — have built, and we are here to restore that legacy.

As commander in chief, I will never hesitate to defend this nation, but I will only send our troops into harm’s way with a clear mission and a sacred commitment to give them the equipment they need in battle and the care and benefits they deserve when they come home.

I will end this war in Iraq responsibly, and finish the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. I will rebuild our military to meet future conflicts. But I will also renew the tough, direct diplomacy that can prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and curb Russian aggression. I will build new partnerships to defeat the threats of the 21st century: terrorism and nuclear proliferation; poverty and genocide; climate change and disease. And I will restore our moral standing, so that America is once again that last, best hope for all who are called to the cause of freedom, who long for lives of peace, and who yearn for a better future.

These are the policies I will pursue. And in the weeks ahead, I look forward to debating them with John McCain.

But what I will not do is suggest that the senator takes his positions for political purposes. Because one of the things that we have to change in our politics is the idea that people cannot disagree without challenging each other’s character and patriotism.

The times are too serious, the stakes are too high for this same partisan playbook. So let us agree that patriotism has no party. I love this country, and so do you, and so does John McCain. The men and women who serve in our battlefields may be Democrats and Republicans and independents, but they have fought together and bled together and some died together under the same proud flag. They have not served a Red America or a Blue America — they have served the United States of America.

So I’ve got news for you, John McCain. We all put our country first.

America, our work will not be easy. The challenges we face require tough choices, and Democrats as well as Republicans will need to cast off the worn-out ideas and politics of the past. For part of what has been lost these past eight years can’t just be measured by lost wages or bigger trade deficits. What has also been lost is our sense of common purpose — our sense of higher purpose. And that’s what we have to restore.

We may not agree on abortion, but surely we can agree on reducing the number of unwanted pregnancies in this country. The reality of gun ownership may be different for hunters in rural Ohio than for those plagued by gang-violence in Cleveland, but don’t tell me we can’t uphold the Second Amendment while keeping AK-47s out of the hands of criminals. I know there are differences on same-sex marriage, but surely we can agree that our gay and lesbian brothers and sisters deserve to visit the person they love in the hospital and to live lives free of discrimination. Passions fly on immigration, but I don’t know anyone who benefits when a mother is separated from her infant child or an employer undercuts American wages by hiring illegal workers. This, too, is part of America’s promise — the promise of a democracy where we can find the strength and grace to bridge divides and unite in common effort.

I know there are those who dismiss such beliefs as happy talk. They claim that our insistence on something larger, something firmer and more honest in our public life is just a Trojan Horse for higher taxes and the abandonment of traditional values. And that’s to be expected. Because if you don’t have any fresh ideas, then you use stale tactics to scare the voters. If you don’t have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from.

You make a big election about small things.

And you know what — it’s worked before. Because it feeds into the cynicism we all have about government. When Washington doesn’t work, all its promises seem empty. If your hopes have been dashed again and again, then it’s best to stop hoping, and settle for what you already know.

I get it. I realize that I am not the likeliest candidate for this office. I don’t fit the typical pedigree, and I haven’t spent my career in the halls of Washington.

But I stand before you tonight because all across America something is stirring. What the naysayers don’t understand is that this election has never been about me. It’s been about you.

For 18 long months, you have stood up, one by one, and said enough to the politics of the past. You understand that in this election, the greatest risk we can take is to try the same old politics with the same old players and expect a different result. You have shown what history teaches us — that at defining moments like this one, the change we need doesn’t come from Washington. Change comes to Washington. Change happens because the American people demand it — because they rise up and insist on new ideas and new leadership, a new politics for a new time.

America, this is one of those moments.

I believe that as hard as it will be, the change we need is coming. Because I’ve seen it. Because I’ve lived it. I’ve seen it in Illinois, when we provided health care to more children and moved more families from welfare to work. I’ve seen it in Washington, when we worked across party lines to open up government and hold lobbyists more accountable, to give better care for our veterans and keep nuclear weapons out of terrorist hands.

And I’ve seen it in this campaign. In the young people who voted for the first time, and in those who got involved again after a very long time. In the Republicans who never thought they’d pick up a Democratic ballot, but did. I’ve seen it in the workers who would rather cut their hours back a day than see their friends lose their jobs, in the soldiers who re-enlist after losing a limb, in the good neighbors who take a stranger in when a hurricane strikes and the floodwaters rise.

This country of ours has more wealth than any nation, but that’s not what makes us rich. We have the most powerful military on Earth, but that’s not what makes us strong. Our universities and our culture are the envy of the world, but that’s not what keeps the world coming to our shores.

Instead, it is that American spirit — that American promise — that pushes us forward even when the path is uncertain; that binds us together in spite of our differences; that makes us fix our eye not on what is seen, but what is unseen, that better place around the bend.

That promise is our greatest inheritance. It’s a promise I make to my daughters when I tuck them in at night, and a promise that you make to yours — a promise that has led immigrants to cross oceans and pioneers to travel west; a promise that led workers to picket lines, and women to reach for the ballot.

And it is that promise that 45 years ago today, brought Americans from every corner of this land to stand together on a Mall in Washington, before Lincoln’s Memorial, and hear a young preacher from Georgia speak of his dream.

The men and women who gathered there could’ve heard many things. They could’ve heard words of anger and discord. They could’ve been told to succumb to the fear and frustration of so many dreams deferred.

But what the people heard instead — people of every creed and color, from every walk of life — is that in America, our destiny is inextricably linked. That together, our dreams can be one.

“We cannot walk alone,” the preacher cried. “And as we walk, we must make the pledge that we shall always march ahead. We cannot turn back.”

America, we cannot turn back. Not with so much work to be done. Not with so many children to educate, and so many veterans to care for. Not with an economy to fix and cities to rebuild and farms to save. Not with so many families to protect and so many lives to mend. America, we cannot turn back. We cannot walk alone. At this moment, in this election, we must pledge once more to march into the future. Let us keep that promise — that American promise — and in the words of Scripture hold firmly, without wavering, to the hope that we confess.

Thank you, God Bless you, and God Bless the United States of America.

The speech is entitled “The American Promise” and it seems to be aimed squarely at the middle class swing voter.

Here are some excerpts…

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Four years ago, I stood before you and told you my story — of the brief union between a young man from Kenya and a young woman from Kansas who weren’t well-off or well-known, but shared a belief that in America, their son could achieve whatever he put his mind to.

It is that promise that has always set this country apart — that through hard work and sacrifice, each of us can pursue our individual dreams but still come together as one American family, to ensure that the next generation can pursue their dreams as well.

It is why I stand here tonight. Because for 232 years, at each moment when that promise was in jeopardy, ordinary men and women — students and soldiers, farmers and teachers, nurses and janitors — found the courage to keep it alive.

We meet at one of those defining moments — a moment when our nation is at war, our economy is in turmoil and the American promise has been threatened once more.

Tonight, more Americans are out of work and more are working harder for less. More of you have lost your homes and more are watching your home values plummet. More of you have cars you can’t afford to drive, credit card bills you can’t afford to pay and tuition that is beyond your reach

These challenges are not all of government’s making. But the failure to respond is a direct result of a broken politics in Washington and the failed presidency of George W. Bush.

America, we are better than these last eight years. We are a better country than this.

***

This moment — this election — is our chance to keep, in the 21st century, the American promise alive. Because next week, in Minnesota, the same party that brought you two terms of George Bush and Dick Cheney will ask this country for a third. And we are here because we love this country too much to let the next four years look just like the last eight. On Nov. 4, we must stand up and say: “Eight is enough.”

Now let there be no doubt. The Republican nominee, John McCain, has worn the uniform of our country with bravery and distinction, and for that we owe him our gratitude and respect. And next week, we’ll also hear about those occasions when he’s broken with his party as evidence that he can deliver the change that we need.

But the record’s clear: John McCain has voted with George Bush 90 percent of the time. Sen. McCain likes to talk about judgment, but really, what does it say about your judgment when you think George Bush was right more than 90 percent of the time? I don’t know about you, but I’m not ready to take a 10 percent chance on change.

***

You see, we Democrats have a very different measure of what constitutes progress in this country.

We measure progress by how many people can find a job that pays the mortgage; whether you can put away a little extra money at the end of each month so that you can someday watch your child receive her diploma. We measure progress in the 23 million new jobs that were created when Bill Clinton was president — when the average American family saw its income go up $7,500 instead of down $2,000 like it has under George Bush.

We measure the strength of our economy not by the number of billionaires we have or the profits of the Fortune 500, but by whether someone with a good idea can take a risk and start a business, or whether the waitress who lives on tips can take a day off to look after a sick kid without losing her job — an economy that honors the dignity of work.

The fundamentals we use to measure economic strength are whether we are living up to that fundamental promise that has made this country great — a promise that is the only reason I am standing here tonight.

***

That’s the promise we need to keep. That’s the change we need right now. So let me spell out exactly what that change would mean if I am president.
.
Change means a tax code that doesn’t reward the lobbyists who wrote it, but the American workers and small businesses who deserve it.

Unlike John McCain, I will stop giving tax breaks to corporations that ship our jobs overseas, and I will start giving them to companies that create good jobs right here in America.

I will eliminate capital gains taxes for the small businesses and the start-ups that will create the high-wage, high-tech jobs of tomorrow.

I will cut taxes — cut taxes — for 95 percent of all working families. Because in an economy like this, the last thing we should do is raise taxes on the middle class.

And for the sake of our economy, our security and the future of our planet, I will set a clear goal as president: in 10 years, we will finally end our dependence on oil from the Middle East.

Washington has been talking about our oil addiction for the last 30 years, and John McCain has been there for 26 of them. In that time, he’s said no to higher fuel-efficiency standards for cars, no to investments in renewable energy, no to renewable fuels. And today, we import triple the amount of oil as the day that Sen. McCain took office.

Now is the time to end this addiction, and to understand that drilling is a stopgap measure, not a long-term solution. Not even close.

As president, I will tap our natural gas reserves, invest in clean coal technology, and find ways to safely harness nuclear power. I’ll help our auto companies retool, so that the fuel-efficient cars of the future are built right here in America. I’ll make it easier for the American people to afford these new cars. And I’ll invest $150 billion over the next decade in affordable, renewable sources of energy — wind power and solar power and the next generation of biofuels; an investment that will lead to new industries and 5 million new jobs that pay well and can’t ever be outsourced.

***

We are the party of Roosevelt. We are the party of Kennedy. So don’t tell me that Democrats won’t defend this country. Don’t tell me that Democrats won’t keep us safe. The Bush-McCain foreign policy has squandered the legacy that generations of Americans — Democrats and Republicans — have built, and we are to restore that legacy.

As commander in chief, I will never hesitate to defend this nation, but I will only send our troops into harm’s way with a clear mission and a sacred commitment to give them the equipment they need in battle and the care and benefits they deserve when they come home.

I will end this war in Iraq responsibly, and finish the fight against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. I will rebuild our military to meet future conflicts. But I will also renew the tough, direct diplomacy that can prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. I will build new partnerships to defeat the threats of the 21st century: terrorism and nuclear proliferation; poverty and genocide; climate change and disease. And I will restore our moral standing so that America is once more the last, best hope for all who are called to the cause of freedom, who long for lives of peace and who yearn for a better future.

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Please share your thoughts.

Obama scores a 5 point bump from yesterday to regain a sizable lead and hit the 48% mark for the first time since his overseas trip.

And, as Gallup notes, these numbers don’t take into account Clinton and Biden’s speeches…

The latest three-day Gallup Poll Daily tracking average (Aug. 25-27) is directly coincident with the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, and is no doubt beginning to reflect the typical convention “bounce” that Gallup has observed in most party conventions in recent decades.

There is a lag of sorts involved in the daily tracking; interviewing is conducted in most parts of the country before that evening’s high-focus speeches have taken place. Thus, the current three-day average would reflect any impact of Monday night’s speech by Michelle Obama, and Tuesday night’s speech by Hillary Clinton, but would not completely reflect Wednesday night’s lineup of speakers, such as John Kerry, former President Bill Clinton, and vice presidential nominee Joe Biden, nor the appearance on stage at the end of the evening by Barack Obama himself.

I am genuinely surprised that Obama has received this much of a bounce from the first couple days of the convention. Still, I guess this is why they do these things, eh?

More tomorrow…

“People around the world have always been more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our power.”
- Bill Clinton in an incredibly well received speech.

I was impressed as well. This is a man I’ve lost a lot of respect for over the past 8 months, but last night’s speech was definitely a giant leap forward on the path to redemption.

Still, I hope that he attends Obama’s speech tonight.

More as it develops…

Tonight’s full schedule after the jump…

7:00 PM – 9:00 PM

Remarks
The Honorable Jesse Jackson, Jr.
Member of the US House of Representatives, Illinois

Mike Fisher & Cheryl Fisher – Beech Grove, Indiana
Mike – Amtrak tech & Cheryl – hospital tech (hosted Obama for lunch)

Tom Balanoff
President, SEIU Local 1 (Chicago)

Senator Edward M. Kennedy Tribute
Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg
Daughter of the late President John F. Kennedy and Jackie Kennedy

Video – Edward M. Kennedy Video

Remarks
The Honorable Miguel Del Valle
City Clerk of Chicago, Illinois

Candi Schmieder
Delegate Chair, Iowa County Convention

Jerry Kellman
Hired & supervised Obama at Developing Communities Project – Chicago, Illinois

Introduction of Jim Leach by
The Honorable Tom Harkin
US Senator, Iowa

The Honorable Jim Leach
Former Republican Member of the US House of Representatives, 1st District, Iowa

Introduction of Claire McCaskill by
Austin Esposito
Son of Senator McCaskill

The Honorable Claire McCaskill
US Senator, Missouri

Video – Michelle Obama Package

Introduction to the Michelle Obama Package
Craig Robinson
Older brother of Michelle Obama

Remarks
Michelle Obama
Wife of Presidential Candidate Barack Obama

Benediction
Don Miller -Portland, Oregon
Best-selling author & public speaker focusing on Christian spirituality

Recess
The Honorable Kathleen Sebelius
Governor of Kansas

democrats and republican hate cartoon