But last week the undead meme was walking again:

The GOP’s Best Weapon In 2010
History Makes The Case For Divided Government
By Gary Andres

Morris Fiorina is a political scientist that wrote the definitive text on Divided Government, titled appropriately enough – “Divided Government“. His comment in this piece goes directly to the raison d’être for my blog. To seek an answer to this never-ending question – “Rather than trusting the partisan balancing choice to a subconscious impulse, would we not be much better off if a few percentage of the electorate simply voted consciously for divided government?” And to promote that divided government voting heuristic.

On that topic, two more recent articles on the same general theme:

Swing time is coming for Dems, GOP
By: Noemie Emery Examiner Columnist

THE REAL REASON AMERICANS ARE ANGRY
It’s the big government, stupid.
by Matt Welch

A side benefit of watching the undead specter of divided government haunt the media again – We are no longer hearing about how the United States is really a “center-left” country.

It may be a bit early for these proclamations and conclusions. We are still more than a year away from the midterms. I still think it will take until 2012 to get there, but when Chris Dodd, Arlen Specter, and Harry Reid are all in trouble, we can safely say that divided government is rising from the grave.

Cross posted from “Divided We Stand United We Fall“

According to First Read, the results will be a lot different…

The 1992 election actually provided hints of the 1994 tsunami (redistricting, strength of anti-establishment Perot etc.; Republicans actually did well in 1992 House races and picked up senate seats). So 1992’s results scared a number of Dems and led to a lot of retirements — making 1994 even more difficult for their party.

Remember, MSNBC’s Morning Joe won his Dem-held House seat in an open seat contest; the conservative southern Dem decided to retire. We’re not seeing this same pattern for 2010 just yet. Democrats seem to have the ability to have insulated themselves from a 1994- or 1946-like result.

Personally, I think it’ll be a wash and Repubs will claim victory if they pick up even one seat. But that will ring as hollow as Bush’s “mandate” claim in 2004 and will set the stage for a very tough, uphill battle in 2012 when the general election rolls around.

Thoughts?

This is BIG news as it’ll ensure that a lot more people participate.

From Des Moines Register:

Sources from both the Iowa Democratic Party and Republican Party of Iowa say they are getting ready to jointly announce a date for the 2010 Iowa caucuses. For the first time, they’ll be held on a Saturday afternoon in January. (editor’s note: Jan. 23 at 1 p.m.) [...]

Both parties have a good track record of working together to make decisions regarding the caucuses. This one is a good example that should help secure Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status for 2012.

Still, some are worried that this will disenfranchise Jewish voters…

Paulee Lipsman, former House Democratic caucus director, who is Jewish, says she and some others called the state party to complain two years ago when she heard Saturday caucuses were being considered. “We have enough trouble with schools scheduling tests and homecoming on Jewish holidays,” she said. She notes, though, that some Jews will attend Saturday events, just like some Christians go to football games on Sunday instead of to church. “No matter when you do it, you’re disenfranchising people,” she said.

Agreed. Any day will disenfranchise folks, but Iowa isn’t exactly a state with a massive Jewish population, and I predict the amount of Jewish voters lost by having it on Saturday will be offset by the number they gain.

Now if we can only get the national election day declared a holiday…. (ahem!)

This is even after election officials admitted that more votes came out of 50 cities than there were voters. Shameful stuff, but not much we can do at this point besides sit back and watch it all unfold.

From BBC:

Iran’s legislative body, the Guardian Council, has said there were no major polling irregularities in the 12 June election and ruled out an annulment.

Opposition supporters called for the vote to be set aside and the elections re-run amid claims of vote tampering. [...]

Guardian Council spokesman Abbas Ali Kadkhoda’i said there was “no major fraud or breach in the election”.

Meanwhile, opposition candidate Mehdi Karoubi urged Iranians to mourn for dead protesters on Thursday.

That last bit is important because now it looks like there are only two things that could change Ahmadinejad’s win.

The first is revolution, and if the protesters keep showing up and the Iranian government keeps cracking down, people will die. Which, in turn, will make more people show up to mourn them and the cycle begins all over again.

The second is foreign interventionism, which is highly unlikely at this point given that there may be relatively little difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi if the mullahs are still running things. Also, who would lead that charge? The US? While we’re still highly committed to Iraq and upping our forces in Afghanistan? Not likely.

So, as with all revolutions, it’s up to the Iranian people to determine their own fate. As a country we can condemn the killings and encourage basic fairness, but the moment we begin to vocally foment revolution, we start to play an incredibly complicated game that has gotten this country into trouble time and time and time again.

More as it develops…

Hey all,

Just found out about this blog and it’s disturbing. Basically, Iranian authorities are using Blogger blogs to ID protestors so they can arrest them.

Here’s how you can help:

• Visit the blog and at the very top there should be a button that says “Flag Blog.” Click that.
• This will send you to a page that features a bunch of different selections to choose from. Choose “Hate Speech” and then click “Continue.”
• Google will then ask if you really mean this and click that you want to “Continue.”
• If enough of us do this, the blog will be taken down automatically once it hits a certain threshold of complaints.

This is just one small way you can do your part and help out the folks in Iran who are fighting for their freedom. And if you’re on Twitter, PLEASE tweet about this and encourage your followers to RT it with this message: HELP! Iran using Blogger blogs to ID protesters 4 arrest. Please flag this blog as “Hate Speech.” http://tr.im/pnpa (pls RT!)

More as it develops…

UPDATE:
The blog has been removed!

This is pretty astonishing.

Apparently the number of votes exceeded the number of voters in over 50 cities, for a discrepancy of about 3 million votes.

But yeah…they don’t care:

The discrepancies, the most sweeping acknowledged so far by the authorities, could affect some three million ballots of what the government says was an 85 percent turnout numbering 40 million voters.

But the authorities insisted that the discrepancies did not violate Iranian law. The Guardian Council, charged with certifying the election, said it was not clear whether they would decisively change the result.

Haha, gotta love that. “Umm, yeah, we gamed it, but that’s not against the law because we can change anything whenever we want. So deal with it.”

What’s more, the Revolutionary Guard looks like they’re going to seriously crack down today, if they haven’t already…

A Revolutionary Guards statement Monday told protesters who took to the streets in a week of demonstrations to “be prepared for a resolution and revolutionary confrontation with the Guards, Basij and other security forces and disciplinary forces” if they continued their protests, news reports said.

The Basij is a militia accused by the protesters of brutally repressing demonstrations that culminated in a day of bloodshed on Saturday. It was not immediately clear if the demonstrators would heed the Guards’ warning.

But I think the government is making a pretty seriously tactical mistake here. Because the more people they kill, they more protestors will be compelled by Islamic traditions to go out into the streets to mourn them.

Here’s why (from Time):

Shiite Muslims mourn their dead on the third, seventh and 40th days after a death, and these commemorations are a pivotal part of Iran’s rich history. During the revolution, the pattern of confrontations between the shah’s security forces and the revolutionaries often played out in 40-day cycles. (See pictures of terror in the streets of Tehran.)

The first clashes in January 1978 produced two deaths that were then commemorated on the 40th day in mass gatherings, which in turn produced new confrontations with security forces — and new deaths. Those deaths then generated another 40-day period of mourning, new clashes, and further deaths. The cycle continued throughout most of the year until the shah’s ouster in January 1979.

More as it develops…

The debate has been fast and furious recently, and Obama has struck what I think is the most appropriate tone given the circumstances.

Does part of me wish he would throw caution to the wind, back Mousavi and call the election a fraud? Sure. But that part of me would be ignoring evidence that Ahmadinejad may have won and that there’s a good chance he’ll have to deal with the current regime. So condemning the election as a fraud now would be a VERY bad move if we want to engage Iran in any sort of meaningful diplomacy down the road.

Talking Points Memo collects other opinions on the issue from yesterday…

Note that Republicans Joe Scarborough and Dick Lugar think Obama is saying exactly what a President should in this situation.

Also note Karl Rove talking about election fraud.

The irony is not lost on this blogger.

So says a commenter who posted this a couple of hours ago…

“We are from god and we will return to him”

Great people of Iran

It is with extreme sadness that I have learnt of the massacre of the people who had gathered peacefully to defend their rights. I am deeply concerned about these events, and hereby declare Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as national mourning days. I support the people’s pacific acts in order to defend their rights in respect of our republic, and forbid any act which can harm it.

All my brothers and sisters are bound to help the nation in this fight, and I declare any resistance, specially any violence against the people, against the principles of Islam and “Haram”.

The blogger says that he found the letter on Moussavi’s Facebook page, but I can’t find it there. Obviously the news if flying fast and furious right now, so take this with a grain of salt until it’s confirmed. However, the blogger did translate the previous letter from Montazeri, so that lend some additional credibility to the post.

Still, if this is true, it’s a pretty significant step forward from merely condemning the violence and the validity of the election. Because, this sounds like the first whispers of real revolution, especially since he’s saying this is against Islam.

In a strong rebuke to the current regime, one of the most powerful clerics in Iran issues the following…

In the name of God

People of Iran

These last days, we have witnessed the lively efforts of you brothers and sisters, old and young alike, from any social category, for the 10th presidential elections.

Our youth, hoping to see their rightful will fulfilled, came on the scene and waited patiently. This was the greatest occasion for the government’s officials to bond with their people.

But unfortunately, they used it in the worst way possible. Declaring results that no one in their right mind can believe, and despite all the evidence of crafted results, and to counter people protestations, in front of the eyes of the same nation who carried the weight of a revolution and 8 years of war, in front of the eyes of local and foreign reporters, attacked the children of the people with astonishing violence. And now they are attempting a purge, arresting intellectuals, political opponents and Scientifics.

Now, based on my religious duties, I will remind you :

1- A legitimate state must respect all points of view. It may not oppress all critical views. I fear that this lead to the lost of people’s faith in Islam.

2- Given the current circumstances, I expect the government to take all measures to restore people’s confidence. Otherwise, as I have already said, a government not respecting people’s vote has no religious or political legitimacy.

3- I invite everyone, specially the youth, to continue reclaiming their dues in calm, and not let those who want to associate this movement with chaos succeed.

4- I ask the police and army personals not to “sell their religion”, and beware that receiving orders will not excuse them before god. Recognize the protesting youth as your children. Today censor and cutting telecommunication lines can not hide the truth.

I pray for the greatness of the Iranian people.

This comes on the heels of other Ayatollahs saying the same thing.

I genuinely don’t know what effect this will have on the situation, but this guy was once in line to assume the top spot, so his word definitely carries some weight.

More as it develops…

And interesting little factoid in all of this Iran election stuff.

From Reuters:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. State Department said on Tuesday it had contacted the social networking service Twitter to urge it to delay a planned upgrade that would have cut daytime service to Iranians who are disputing their election.

Confirmation that the U.S. government had contacted Twitter came as the Obama administration sought to avoid suggestions it was meddling in Iran’s internal affairs as the Islamic Republic battled to control deadly street protests over the election result.

Twitter and Facebook have been used as a tool by many young people to coordinate protests over the election’s outcome.

Hey, if anybody understands the power of social networking tools, it’s these guys/gals. After all, it wasn’t just distaste for Bush’s policies that helped a junior Senator named Barack Obama win the presidency. Easy-to-use publishing and organizing tools that allow quick access to information were key to his victory, and I think this is a signal to Moussavi’s supporters that America is behind them.

But that begs the question…how will Ahmadinejad take this news?

I suppose it’s never too early to start talking about races in 2010, and this race presents many Dems with a problem. Support the moderate (yet aging) Specter because he switched parties, or back a young up and comer?

Regardless, it’s becoming obvious that Sestak will run in the Democratic primary…

Sestak has interviewed a number of people who would work for his statewide communications operation and online outreach effort, and has talked to candidates for his field operation, the Democrat says.

Meanwhile, three chief media consultants on Sestak’s 2006 and 2008 House races — J.J. Balaban, Doc Sweitzer, and Neil Oxman of the Philadelphia-based firm The Campaign Group — have signaled to Sestak that they’ll work for him if and when he enters the Senate primary.

“My colleagues and I were very pleased to help Joe defeat a longtime Republican in 2006, and we’d be happy to do so again in 2010,” Balaban told me, in a puckish reference to Specter.

Now, here’s the thing…Sestak could actually take this one because he’s not just a random politico. He’s actually a former Navy Vice Admiral and so his national security cred is literally second to none.

Regardless, he still has a significant hurdle to overcome because of Specter’s reputation and tenure. But if he can begin to peel away just a few endorsements, the mood could shift.

More as it develops…

As well he should. There’s no sense in agreeing to a recount of tainted votes. What they need is a new election, and they shouldn’t stop until they get it.

More from NY Times:

Speaking at Monday’s huge rally, Mr. Moussavi said he had written to the Guardian Council to complain about the election but had little hope of action from the panel because many of its members had supported Mr. Ahmadinejad ahead of the election.

“I believe annulling the election results would be the least harmful measure,” he said. “Otherwise people will no longer have confidence in the system and the government,” he said. But the Guardian Council rejected that demand, Reuters reported.

As if they had any confidence before? I mean, it’s pretty obvious that the democracy in this country is a sham since one guy calls all the shots.

And it doesn’t sound like they’ll even consider a new election…

“Based on the law, the demand of those candidates for the cancellation of the vote, this cannot be considered,” the spokesman, Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei, a spokesman for the Guardian Council, told state television, Reuters said.

The difference between these protests and ones in the past is that we’re not just talking about students anymore. Now even clerics have joined the movement and are calling for new elections. So dismissals stateside of how ineffectual all of this will ultimately be is surprising to say the least, when this is what I thought everybody wanted to happen in the Middle East.

More as it develops…

As much as I hate to be fair to a guy like Ahmadinejad, I can’t ignore this story from the Washington Post which shows that he enjoyed a sizable lead before the election.

What’s more, the following pollsters have absolutely no reason to lie. In fact, they have every reason to shut up, but they decided to share their information with us anyway.

First, the methodology…

Independent and uncensored nationwide surveys of Iran are rare. Typically, preelection polls there are either conducted or monitored by the government and are notoriously untrustworthy. By contrast, the poll undertaken by our nonprofit organizations from May 11 to May 20 was the third in a series over the past two years. Conducted by telephone from a neighboring country, field work was carried out in Farsi by a polling company whose work in the region for ABC News and the BBC has received an Emmy award. Our polling was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.

Next, the numbers…

The breadth of Ahmadinejad’s support was apparent in our preelection survey. During the campaign, for instance, Mousavi emphasized his identity as an Azeri, the second-largest ethnic group in Iran after Persians, to woo Azeri voters. Our survey indicated, though, that Azeris favored Ahmadinejad by 2 to 1 over Mousavi.

Much commentary has portrayed Iranian youth and the Internet as harbingers of change in this election. But our poll found that only a third of Iranians even have access to the Internet, while 18-to-24-year-olds comprised the strongest voting bloc for Ahmadinejad of all age groups.

The only demographic groups in which our survey found Mousavi leading or competitive with Ahmadinejad were university students and graduates, and the highest-income Iranians. When our poll was taken, almost a third of Iranians were also still undecided. Yet the baseline distributions we found then mirror the results reported by the Iranian authorities, indicating the possibility that the vote is not the product of widespread fraud.

And then you look at the work the guys at FiveThirtyEight have been doing, and a win by Admadinejad seems a little bit more plausible.

For instance, Nate Silver called into question a report that demonstrated how Iran’s election was rigged, by comparing it to the exact same numbers that were reported in our own election.

Now, they do suggest that there are some slightly implausible vote totals out of certain regions, but ultimately Nate comes to this conclusion…for now

Based on conversations with people who are a bit more informed about Iranian domestic politics, it seems absolutely possible that Ahmadinejad in fact won (although his share of the vote was probably boosted through “dirty tricks” — intimidation both before and during the election, jamming text messaging services, etc.) and also absolutely possible that the election was stolen. The statistical evidence is intriguing but, ultimately, inconclusive.

So that’s where we’re at right now, but I do think the meme that there’s no way Ahmadinejad could have won is starting to die. Yes, the results are fishy and yes, I don’t believe them either. But before we start taking sides (ahem, Mike Pence) we need to know more.

After a weekend of protests and clashes over the alleged fraud perpetrated by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s party in Iran, the real powers in Iran are stepping in:

State television quoted Ayatollah Ali Khamenei directing a high-level clerical panel, the Guardian Council, to look into charges by pro-reform candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, who has said he is the rightful winner of Friday’s presidential election.

The decision comes after Mousavi wrote a letter appealing to the Guardian Council and met Sunday with Khamenei, who holds almost limitless power over Iranian affairs. Such an election probe by the 12-member council is uncharted territory and it not immediately clear how it would proceed or how long it would take.

What we don’t know is whether this investigation is just for show or whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is actually concerned about the underhanded tactics apparently used to rig the election. After all, Iran’s theocratic leaders don’t exactly have a history of defending democracy. This move could very well be nothing more than an attempt to silent the ongoing protests.

We’ll see. Wish I could be more optimistic.

More and more details are emerging that suggest this whole thing was a sham.

From Muhammad Sahimi:

At the same time, the reformist newspapers were also informed that they can prepare their Saturday edition to declare Mr. Mousavi the winner, but were not allowed to use the word pirouzi (victory) in their articles, in order not to upset Mr. Ahmadinejad’s supporters. One reformist newspaper prepared its front page with the title, “People took back the flag of their country [from Mr. Ahmadinejad].”

But, just a few hours later, a center that had been set up by Mr. Mousavi in Gheytarieh (in northern Tehran) for monitoring the election and vote counting, was attacked by armed security agents. They ransacked the center, destroyed computers, and attacked the staff. Supporters of Mr. Mousavi intervened and arrested 8 security agents. The police was called to take them to prison, but the police released the attackers.

According to Mr. Makhbalbaf, the central headquaters of Mr. Mousavi’s campaign was also surrounded by security forces, as was the Interior Ministry building. Then, new data began to be released by the Ministry, indicating that Mr. Ahmadinejad had won the elections decisively.

By the way, I understand that there’s a possibility that Ahmadinejad actually won, but that’s appearing to get more and more unlikely with each story we’re hearing about these last minute reversals. And until we can get a truly transparent look into this voting results, that will be the dominate narrative.

Numbers and accusations are flying fast and furious right now, but the following seem to be the most plausible I’ve seen so far.

Do note that the following has been pulled out of a VERY long post with a ton of updates, so the usual caveats apply.

From NIAC Insight:

We’ve been very hesitant to publicize any of the so-called “true” election results that have surfaced, since it’s the easiest thing in the world to make up numbers and plug them into a graph and present it as fact. But this comes from mowj.ir, where “an informed source” inside the Ministry of Interior’s Election HQ says

All 9 communiques of the MOI were written and planned in advance; numbers were faked via a software program which distributed vote counts among polling stations in such a way to make everything look plausible.

Supposedly, the initial results that the MOI announced were based only on the first 500,000 ballots received, and that set the rest of Friday’s events in motion. According to this site, the real results were:

• Mousavi – 21.3 million (57.2%)
• Ahmadinejad – 10.5 million (28%)
• Rezai – 2.7 million (7.2%)
• Karroubi – 2.2 million (6%)

Obviously, this should be taken with a huge grain of salt. But Mowj is the unofficial website for the Mousavi campaign, so we wanted to present it here for you to interpret yourself.

We may never know the true results, but I’ll share what I can find.

More as it develops…

Also note around the 2 minute mark that the protesters literally chase away the police so the BBC can continue reporting.

More as it develops…

From Tehran Bureau:

The Association of Combatant Clerics, which consists of moderate and leftist clerics and includes such important figures as former president Mohammad Khatami, Ayatollah Mohammad Mousavi Khoiniha, and Grand Ayatollah Abdolkarim Mousavi Ardabili, issued a strongly-worded statement, calling the results of the election invalid.

Grand Ayatollah Saafi Golpaygaani, an important cleric with a large number of followers, warned about the election results and the importance that elections in Iran retain their integrity.

Grand Ayatollah Yousef Saanei, a progressive cleric and a confidante of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, has declared that Mr. Ahmadinejad is not the legitimate president and cooperation with him, as well as working for him, are haraam (against Islam and a great sin). He has also declared that any changes in the votes by unlawful means are also haraam. Several credible reports indicate that he has traveled to Tehran in order to participate in nationwide protests scheduled for Monday (June 18). It is said that he has planned a sit-in in some public place, in order to further protest election fraud. His website has been blocked.

More as it develops…

I missed this yesterday…

The international community should not recognize the results of Iran’s 12 June 2009 presidential election, which gives all signs of having been manipulated by government authorities to produce a massive victory for incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, according to the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran. The Campaign further recommended that the existing results be voided and new elections held in order to establish legitimacy.

As the Campaign reported earlier, the leading challenger to Ahmadinejad, Mir Hossein Moussavi, was informed by Iran’s Interior Ministry at 23:00 on 12 June that tabulated results showed him to be victor, and he was asked to wait on celebrations until Sunday.

A few hours later, the Ministry inexplicably reversed itself declaring a massive victory for Ahmadinejad. Iran’s religious Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ignoring turmoil in the Ministry and rising protests, announced the victory and declared the process finished.

“The international community cannot accept such questionable election results, and should withhold recognition of these elections,“ stated Hadi Ghaemi, spokesperson for the Campaign.

“All must help the authorities understand that there will be no social peace in Iran and no credibility for the government abroad, without a re-run to discover which candidate actually deserves to govern,” he said.

I think the government seriously underestimated the Iranian people and what we’re seeing right now is the beginning of the end for this regime.

But it could get VERY bloody.

Steve Clemons reports…

Last night in London after appearing on Keith Olbermann’s show, I got an email from a well-connected Iranian who knows many of the power figures in the Tehran political order asking to meet me. I told him that the only place possible was Paddington on the way to Heathrow — and there we met. [...]

My contact predicted serious violence at the highest levels. He said that Ahmadinejad is now genuinely scared of Iranian society and of Mousavi and Rafsanjani. The level of tension between them has gone beyond civil limits — and my contact said that Ahmadinejad will try to have them imprisoned and killed.

Likewise, he said, Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Mousavi know this — and thus are using all of the instruments at their control within Iran’s government apparatus to fight back — but given Khamenei’s embrace of Ahmadinejad’s actions in the election and victory, there is no recourse but to try and remove Khamenei. Some suggest that Rafsanjani will count votes to see if there is a way to formally dislodge Khamenei — but this source I met said that all of these political giants have resources at their disposal to “do away with” those that get in the way.

He predicted that the so-called reformist camp — who are not exactly humanists in the Western liberal sense — may try and animate efforts to decapitate the regime and “do away with” Ahmadinejad and even the Supreme Leader himself.

Is civil war eminent in Iran?

Has it already started?

And the Iranian people are mad as hell…

Here’s more…

Not only that, Twitter is being used a ton to get the message out.

Andrew Sullivan sums it up like so…

This generation will determine if the world can avoid the apocalypse that will come if the fear-ridden establishments continue to dominate global politics, motivated by terror, armed with nukes, and playing old but now far too dangerous games. This generation will not bypass existing institutions and methods: look at the record turnout in Iran and the massive mobilization of the young and minority vote in the US. But they will use technology to displace old modes and orders. Maybe this revolt will be crushed. But even if it is, the genie has escaped this Islamist bottle.

The revolution will be Twittered.