Archive for the 'Electoral College' Category

Obama Wins One Electoral Vote In Nebraska

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, Nebraska

Yesterday I talked about how it could happen.
Today it’s a reality.
From Omaha World-Herald:
The Democratic presidential candidate claimed an electoral vote in the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District — the first time in more than four decades a Democrat won any of Nebraska’s electoral votes.
The Omaha World-Herald is calling the race after Obama won 8,434 out of [...]

November 7th, 2008 | Permalink| 4 Comments »

Obama Could Get One Electoral Vote From Nebraska

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, Nebraska

That’s right. Obama may actually win Omaha.
So if this happens, and you accept that Obama won North Carolina and Missouri will eventually go for McCain, then the electoral count will look like this…
Obama: 365
McCain: 173
More from Omaha World-Herald:
His odds of bagging an electoral vote in Nebraska grew stronger this morning, with word that 10,000 to [...]

November 6th, 2008 | Permalink| 1 Comment »

Electoral College Results Liveblog

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain

(NOTE: With the Ohio win, Obama will be the next President of the United States.)
Welcome to the Donklephant 2008 Electoral College results coverage.
I’ll be constantly updating this post as new results come in, so please watch the numbers as well as the updates below the numbers.
Total Electoral Votes
Obama: 216
McCain: 129
Full numbers below!

November 4th, 2008 | Permalink| 8 Comments »

Chuck Todd: What To Look For Tonight

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Video, Voting

It has all come down to this one day, and the folks at NBC show you what they’ll be watching for.

By the way, if you don’t know when polls close in your state, check out our post with ALL the closing times.
And get out there and vote!

November 4th, 2008 | Permalink| No Comments »

Tonight Will Not Be A Landslide

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, History, McCain

Why?
Because there’s no way they’ll match history…
With the final national polls settling around Obama +7, I realized that I lacked a good sense of historical context for that number. Turns out it’s about the margin of George H.W. Bush’s 1988 win against Michael Dukakis: 53.4% to 45.6%.
That’s certainly impressive. It doesn’t, however, really compare to [...]

November 4th, 2008 | Permalink| 1 Comment »

The Final Electoral Predictions

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls

The numbers have tightened a bit, but Obama looks poised to capture the POTUS tomorrow in every single projection.

Real Clear Politics: Obama 338, McCain 200

Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 353, McCain 185

FiveThirtyEight: Obama 340.2, McCain 197.8

Pollster: Obama 311, McCain 142, Tied 85

So then…
There’s really no good news for McCain in these maps and even some crazy last minute [...]

November 3rd, 2008 | Permalink| 4 Comments »

The Daily Todd

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls, Video

Some last minute math that makes it seem like a complete lost cause for McCain. Because if 30% have voted early and those voters are going for Obama by 19%, then McCain is going to have to win the remaining voters by 10% if he wants to make up the difference.
That’s simply not going to [...]

November 3rd, 2008 | Permalink| 1 Comment »

The Daily Todd

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls, Video

This time on Meet The Press, explaining how difficult it will be for McCain to get to 270.

Does McCain really think he can get all of these swing states? Will undecideds turn this significantly against Obama?
We shall see…

November 2nd, 2008 | Permalink| No Comments »

Pollster.com’s Trend Estimates

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls

The poll of the polls…

Note that it’s more likely that Obama will win North Dakota than Florida. Pretty crazy.
My guess on Tuesday is that if voters are still undecided at this point they’ll break for McCain because they’re essentially okay with Bush’s 8 years and McCain would clearly be an extension of that.
So…what does that [...]

November 2nd, 2008 | Permalink| 2 Comments »

CBS/NY Times: Obama Has 19 Point Lead With Early Voters

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls

And he has a 13 point lead among likely voters.
The details…
(CBS) With just three days left until Election Day, a new CBS News poll finds that the Democratic presidential ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden leads its Republican counterpart by 13 points among likely voters, 54% to 41%. That margin reflects an increase of [...]

November 2nd, 2008 | Permalink| 2 Comments »

Charlie Cook Talks Electoral Predictions

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Electoral College, Video

Not surprisingly, he doesn’t see good things for McCain.
In fact, it’s so grim that he essentially says that if McCain wins, nobody should trust him anymore. Pretty bold, but I have the same feelings. I know people have been hemming and hawing about the fact that “anything” could happen, but nobody has provided any sort [...]

November 1st, 2008 | Permalink| 4 Comments »

Meet Marge Tartaglione, Philly Voting Czar

By American News Project | Related entries in 2008 Election, Bad Decisions, Breaking News, Constitution, D.C., Democrats, Discuss, Dumb Things Said By Smart People, Electoral College, General Politics, In The News, Law, Media, Pennsylvania, Republicans, United States, Voting, WTF?

Philadelphia is shaping up to be a key city in a key battleground state in this election, but machine problems and long lines may plague the polling stations and voter disenfranchisement will be a serious risk. Unfortunately for voters, the people charged with running a smooth election in Philly seem surprisingly unconcerned. Philly’s veritable election czar, Marge Tartaglione (D), in particular, shocked ANP with her comments at a recent hearing. See more videos at http://americannewsproject.com

November 1st, 2008 | Permalink| No Comments »

Poll Closing Times

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Electoral College

Swing State Project put this together and it’ll be incredibly helpful for all of us on Tuesday night.

November 1st, 2008 | Permalink| No Comments »

The Daily Todd

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls, Video

As Zogby is touting his one day results today, Chuck Todd shares some electoral realities…

And here’s more…

So yes, it’s not looking good for McCain right now. Especially if Virginia goes for Obama early in the evening.
More as it develops…

November 1st, 2008 | Permalink| 1 Comment »

The Impact Of Bob Barr

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Barr, Electoral College, McCain, Video

CNN takes a look and discusses what his impact will be.

I think Barr could make a big difference in Georgia and other traditional red states like North Carolina, Indiana, Florida and Ohio.
Here’s why…
Reports show 1 million Democrats have early voted in North Carolina, compared to half a million Republicans. 1.4 million people have early voted [...]

October 31st, 2008 | Permalink| No Comments »

Nate Silver’s Election Night Preview

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Electoral College, Video

He’s going to be with Dan Rather on HDNet on election night, and here’s a taste of what you’ll see.

Can’t wait to tune in and see if Silver’s models were accurate or not.

October 30th, 2008 | Permalink| 2 Comments »

McCain’s Road To 270

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Polls, Video

Chuck Todd and Joe Scarborough break it down…

Do note how Mike Murphy says, “I think they’re smoking crack,” when he talks about McCain trying to get Iowa. I still don’t get why McCain is paying any attention to that state.
Long story short…it’ll be incredibly tough.

October 30th, 2008 | Permalink| 2 Comments »

7 Days Left: Where Does The Race Stand?

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Video, Voting

First, Chuck Todd talks about the battlegrounds. No surprise…the trends favor Obama.

And then…the bigger news: early voting.
Looks like Obama’s ground game is really working.

One thing I would note about those places where Democrats and Republicans are neck and neck…Republicans ALWAYS dominate early voting across the country. So even if Dems are tied in some of [...]

October 28th, 2008 | Permalink| No Comments »

Early Voting Still Heavily Favoring Dems

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Video, Voting

Chuck Todd and Charlie Cook on Hardball explaining it all.
Basically, Todd hedges his bets, but Cook comes straight out and says, “Boy, it sure as hell looks over.”

And to that point about early voting, here’s more from WSJ…
Almost 11 million voters already have cast ballots in the 2008 elections, and Democrats seem to have cast [...]

October 27th, 2008 | Permalink| 1 Comment »

The Road To 270

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCain, Video

Chuck Todd talks about the race and where it stands today, which has Obama at 286 electoral votes.

For those of you who’ve been following this over the weekend, this is old news. But the idea that Obama can lose Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio and still get 270.
That’s big.
More as it develops…

October 27th, 2008 | Permalink| No Comments »